Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 230918
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0318 AM CST MON FEB 23 2009
VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SWRN OK...PORTIONS OF NORTH AND
SOUTH CENTRAL TX...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND ERN NM...
...SYNOPSIS...
A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
MON...WHILE A LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTH TOWARD THE NRN
PLAINS. THESE FEATURES WILL AID IN BREAKING DOWN A RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE WRN CONUS...RESULTING IN A TRANSITION TOWARD ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. MODERATE WESTERLIES WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A LEE TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
CENTERED OVER IL/IND BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE SRN PLAINS...ALLOWING
BREEZY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP IN CONJUNCTION WITH A DRY SURFACE
AIRMASS.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SWRN OK...PORTIONS OF NORTH AND
SOUTH CENTRAL TX...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT...LOW RH...WINDS
MARGINALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
MATERIALIZE FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON. CURRENT MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A TROUGH AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM ERN CO SOUTH
INTO THE TX PANHANDLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. EAST OF THE TROUGH OVER
OK AND NORTHERN TX...SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 20 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE...THOUGH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATES A LOW PROBABILITY OF
THIS OCCURRING. DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S WILL YIELD RH VALUES BELOW 15
PERCENT. DESPITE THE MARGINAL SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS...MODERATE TO
SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE DRY AIRMASS SUGGEST THAT
DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - CENTRAL AND ERN NM...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: LOW RH AND WINDS
MODERATE WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION DURING THE D1 PERIOD. AS A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER DEVELOPS
WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...SUSTAINED WINDS AOA 20 MPH WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. A VERY DRY AIRMASS ALREADY RESIDES ACROSS
THE REGION...THOUGH SOME MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE AIRMASS
WILL MOISTEN DURING THE DAY /POSSIBLY DUE TO TOP DOWN SATURATION
PROCESSES/. SREF PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS IS
UNLIKELY...WITH RH VALUES EXPECTED TO RESIDE BELOW 15 PERCENT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S. CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP AS A RESULT...FROM THE
MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL NM INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS.
...SERN STATES...
A DRY AIRMASS /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S/ WILL CONTINUE
TO FILTER SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION ON MON...RESULTING IN AFTERNOON RH
VALUES IN THE 20S. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL PRECLUDE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
..GARNER.. 02/23/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 230920
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0320 AM CST MON FEB 23 2009
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
A BELT OF MODERATE MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL EXIST FROM THE
DESERT SW INTO W TX. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
BECOME SITUATED FROM WRN NEB SOUTH INTO WRN TX...WITH VERY WARM/DRY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ALONG AND W OF THIS FEATURE. THIS WILL LEAD TO
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING TUE AFTERNOON.
...WRN-SWRN TX AND CENTRAL-ERN NM...
THE NAM...AND SREF TO SOME EXTENT...ALLOW A WEAK SURFACE LOW TO MOVE
EAST ACROSS WRN TX DURING THE DAY...WITH A VERY WARM AND DEEPLY
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER DEVELOPING FROM CENTRAL/ERN NM INTO WRN-SWRN
TX. THIS WILL SUPPORT RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE
DIGITS...ALTHOUGH THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THIS AIRMASS WILL BE
DEPENDENT UPON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE SURFACE LOW /WHICH IS
DIFFICULT TO ANTICIPATE GIVEN THE FEATURELESS UPPER AIR PATTERN/.
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT SUSTAINED
WINDS WILL APPROACH 20 MPH FOR SEVERAL HOURS WITHIN THE WELL MIXED
PBL...SUGGESTING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE.
AN OUTLOOK AREA WILL BE ASSIGNED DURING THE NEXT FORECAST IF GREATER
CONFIDENCE IN THE EVOLUTION OF SURFACE FEATURES IS OBTAINED.
..GARNER.. 02/23/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...