Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 230918
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0318 AM CST MON FEB 23 2009
   
   VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SWRN OK...PORTIONS OF NORTH AND
   SOUTH CENTRAL TX...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND ERN NM...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
   MON...WHILE A LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTH TOWARD THE NRN
   PLAINS. THESE FEATURES WILL AID IN BREAKING DOWN A RIDGE CENTERED
   OVER THE WRN CONUS...RESULTING IN A TRANSITION TOWARD ZONAL FLOW
   ALOFT. MODERATE WESTERLIES WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A LEE TROUGH
   OVER THE CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
   CENTERED OVER IL/IND BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
   STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE SRN PLAINS...ALLOWING
   BREEZY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP IN CONJUNCTION WITH A DRY SURFACE
   AIRMASS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SWRN OK...PORTIONS OF NORTH AND
   SOUTH CENTRAL TX...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT...LOW RH...WINDS
   
   MARGINALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
   MATERIALIZE FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON. CURRENT MODEL
   GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A TROUGH AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM ERN CO SOUTH
   INTO THE TX PANHANDLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. EAST OF THE TROUGH OVER
   OK AND NORTHERN TX...SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 20 MPH ARE
   POSSIBLE...THOUGH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATES A LOW PROBABILITY OF
   THIS OCCURRING. DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON
   TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S WILL YIELD RH VALUES BELOW 15
   PERCENT. DESPITE THE MARGINAL SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS...MODERATE TO
   SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE DRY AIRMASS SUGGEST THAT
   DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - CENTRAL AND ERN NM...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: LOW RH AND WINDS
   
   MODERATE WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE
   REGION DURING THE D1 PERIOD. AS A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER DEVELOPS
   WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...SUSTAINED WINDS AOA 20 MPH WITH LOCALLY
   HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. A VERY DRY AIRMASS ALREADY RESIDES ACROSS
   THE REGION...THOUGH SOME MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE AIRMASS
   WILL MOISTEN DURING THE DAY /POSSIBLY DUE TO TOP DOWN SATURATION
   PROCESSES/. SREF PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS IS
   UNLIKELY...WITH RH VALUES EXPECTED TO RESIDE BELOW 15 PERCENT
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S. CRITICAL
   FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP AS A RESULT...FROM THE
   MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL NM INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS.
   
   ...SERN STATES...
   A DRY AIRMASS /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S/ WILL CONTINUE
   TO FILTER SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION ON MON...RESULTING IN AFTERNOON RH
   VALUES IN THE 20S. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
   WINDS WILL PRECLUDE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
   
   ..GARNER.. 02/23/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 230920
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0320 AM CST MON FEB 23 2009
   
   VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A BELT OF MODERATE MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL EXIST FROM THE
   DESERT SW INTO W TX. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
   BECOME SITUATED FROM WRN NEB SOUTH INTO WRN TX...WITH VERY WARM/DRY
   CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ALONG AND W OF THIS FEATURE. THIS WILL LEAD TO
   ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING TUE AFTERNOON.
   
   ...WRN-SWRN TX AND CENTRAL-ERN NM...
   THE NAM...AND SREF TO SOME EXTENT...ALLOW A WEAK SURFACE LOW TO MOVE
   EAST ACROSS WRN TX DURING THE DAY...WITH A VERY WARM AND DEEPLY
   MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER DEVELOPING FROM CENTRAL/ERN NM INTO WRN-SWRN
   TX. THIS WILL SUPPORT RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE
   DIGITS...ALTHOUGH THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THIS AIRMASS WILL BE
   DEPENDENT UPON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE SURFACE LOW /WHICH IS
   DIFFICULT TO ANTICIPATE GIVEN THE FEATURELESS UPPER AIR PATTERN/.
   DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT SUSTAINED
   WINDS WILL APPROACH 20 MPH FOR SEVERAL HOURS WITHIN THE WELL MIXED
   PBL...SUGGESTING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE.
   AN OUTLOOK AREA WILL BE ASSIGNED DURING THE NEXT FORECAST IF GREATER
   CONFIDENCE IN THE EVOLUTION OF SURFACE FEATURES IS OBTAINED.
   
   ..GARNER.. 02/23/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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