Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 240918
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0318 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2009
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DEAMPLIFY AS IT MOVES ACROSS
OR/WA THIS AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY BECOMING ABSORBED BY A NRN STREAM
DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS WILL AID
IN A CONTINUED BREAK DOWN OF A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE
WRN CONUS. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S.
AS A RESULT...FAVORING LEE SIDE TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN
HIGH PLAINS. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE SRN END OF THE TROUGH OVER NM/WRN TX...RESULTING
IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. FARTHER EAST...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC
COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON...MAINTAINING A DRY AIRMASS OVER THE SERN
STATES.
...SERN NM AND SWRN TX...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
DURING THE D1 PERIOD...WITH A SURFACE LOW MIGRATING FROM THE TX
PANHANDLE SE INTO ERN PORTIONS OF W TX BY LATE AFTERNOON. A PLUME OF
VERY WARM AIR...CHARACTERIZED BY AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 80S AND
90S...WILL DEVELOP W OF THE LOW OVER SERN NM AND WRN/SWRN TX. A DEEP
WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THIS
AIRMASS...RESULTING IN RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE LOWER TEENS-UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS. IN ADDITION...A BELT OF 20-30 KT 700 MB FLOW WILL
STRETCH FROM THE DESERT SW INTO TX...WHICH WILL FAVOR GUSTS UP TO 30
MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATE A LOW PROBABILITY OF SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE
CRITICAL VALUES FOR A 3 HR PERIOD...WHICH WILL PRECLUDE ISSUING AN
OUTLOOK AREA.
..GARNER.. 02/24/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 240920
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0320 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2009
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL CHARACTERIZE THE LOWER 48 ON D2...WITH
SEVERAL EMBEDDED IMPULSES MOVING EAST ACROSS THE WRN CONUS AND INTO
THE GREAT PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE...A LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD...WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT SLIDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
BY WED NIGHT...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR SOUTH OF
THE FRONT OVER THE SRN PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE
EMERGING OUT OF THE CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES. AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
PASSES THROUGH NEW MEXICO...WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND BECOME
COLLOCATED WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITY...RESULTING
IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
...NEW MEXICO...
SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...A VERY WARM AND WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF NEW MEXICO...WITH
AFTERNOON RH VALUES LIKELY FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS.
MID LEVEL FLOW WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN STRENGTH...FAVORING WIND GUSTS
OF 20-30 MPH. IN ADDITION...THE PROBABILITY OF SUSTAINED WINDS
EXCEEDING CRITICAL VALUES WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT AS AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING OF THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE...A CRITICAL OUTLOOK AREA WILL
NOT BE ISSUED WITH THIS FORECAST. HOWEVER...ONE MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF NM IN THE NEXT D1 OUTLOOK.
..GARNER.. 02/24/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...