Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 240918
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0318 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2009
   
   VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DEAMPLIFY AS IT MOVES ACROSS
   OR/WA THIS AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY BECOMING ABSORBED BY A NRN STREAM
   DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS WILL AID
   IN A CONTINUED BREAK DOWN OF A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE
   WRN CONUS. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S.
   AS A RESULT...FAVORING LEE SIDE TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN
   HIGH PLAINS. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL
   DEVELOP ALONG THE SRN END OF THE TROUGH OVER NM/WRN TX...RESULTING
   IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. FARTHER EAST...SURFACE HIGH
   PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC
   COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON...MAINTAINING A DRY AIRMASS OVER THE SERN
   STATES.
   
   ...SERN NM AND SWRN TX...
   A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
   DURING THE D1 PERIOD...WITH A SURFACE LOW MIGRATING FROM THE TX
   PANHANDLE SE INTO ERN PORTIONS OF W TX BY LATE AFTERNOON. A PLUME OF
   VERY WARM AIR...CHARACTERIZED BY AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 80S AND
   90S...WILL DEVELOP W OF THE LOW OVER SERN NM AND WRN/SWRN TX. A DEEP
   WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THIS
   AIRMASS...RESULTING IN RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE LOWER TEENS-UPPER
   SINGLE DIGITS. IN ADDITION...A BELT OF 20-30 KT 700 MB FLOW WILL
   STRETCH FROM THE DESERT SW INTO TX...WHICH WILL FAVOR GUSTS UP TO 30
   MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODEL
   GUIDANCE INDICATE A LOW PROBABILITY OF SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE
   CRITICAL VALUES FOR A 3 HR PERIOD...WHICH WILL PRECLUDE ISSUING AN
   OUTLOOK AREA.
   
   ..GARNER.. 02/24/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 240920
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0320 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2009
   
   VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL CHARACTERIZE THE LOWER 48 ON D2...WITH
   SEVERAL EMBEDDED IMPULSES MOVING EAST ACROSS THE WRN CONUS AND INTO
   THE GREAT PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE...A LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH
   WILL MOVE INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC TOWARD THE END OF THE
   PERIOD...WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT SLIDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
   BY WED NIGHT...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR SOUTH OF
   THE FRONT OVER THE SRN PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE
   EMERGING OUT OF THE CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES. AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
   PASSES THROUGH NEW MEXICO...WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND BECOME
   COLLOCATED WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITY...RESULTING
   IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
   
   ...NEW MEXICO...
   SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...A VERY WARM AND WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
   AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF NEW MEXICO...WITH
   AFTERNOON RH VALUES LIKELY FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS.
   MID LEVEL FLOW WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN STRENGTH...FAVORING WIND GUSTS
   OF 20-30 MPH. IN ADDITION...THE PROBABILITY OF SUSTAINED WINDS
   EXCEEDING CRITICAL VALUES WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT AS AN UPPER
   DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE
   TIMING OF THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE...A CRITICAL OUTLOOK AREA WILL
   NOT BE ISSUED WITH THIS FORECAST. HOWEVER...ONE MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
   PORTIONS OF NM IN THE NEXT D1 OUTLOOK.
   
   ..GARNER.. 02/24/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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