Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 250911
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0311 AM CST WED FEB 25 2009
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY DENOTES A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW
REGIME...WITH A SERIES OF LOW AMPLITUDE WAVES MOVING OVER THE CONUS.
UPPER MIDWEST DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE MOVING E TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT SLIDING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS IN WAKE OF THIS UPPER SYSTEM. MEANWHILE...A DEVELOPING UPPER
TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE PAC NW. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...A LEAD
DISTURBANCE EMANATING FROM THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE E TOWARDS THE
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AND INDUCE LEE SIDE TROUGHING WHERE LOCALIZED
STRONG SLY WINDS MAY DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF ERN COLORADO. FURTHER S
OVER PARTS OF NM...GLANCING INFLUENCE FROM APPROACHING WAVE ALONG
WITH WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPS AND LOWER RH WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS WELL.
...PARTS OF THE ERN COLORADO PLAINS...
AS ERN GREAT BASIN DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA...STRONGER BELT
OF SWLY 700MB FLOW WILL IMPINGE UPON THE REGION. ALTHOUGH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DEEP MIXING TO BE UNLIKELY...STRENGTH OF BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW FIELDS INDICATES STRONG SUSTAINED WINDS /20-25 MPH/ WITH
HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WELL E OF FRONT RANGE.
MIN RH IS ANTICIPATED ONLY TO FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S WHERE
THE STRONGER WINDS ARE FORECAST. ATTM...THE INABILITY OF THE LOWEST
RH/STRONGEST WINDS TO BE JUXTAPOSED ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MODEL
OUTPUT APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR AN OTHERWISE MORE
ROBUST FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
...PARTS OF WRN NM...
WARM AND WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
OVER MUCH OF NEW MEXICO. SOME GUSTY WINDS /NEAR 30 MPH/ WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP AS LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS DURING THE PERIOD.
LIMITED OVERALL NATURE OF RH /TEENS/ AND SUSTAINED WINDS /20
MPH/...IN ADDITION TO THE SHORT DURATION /HR OR TWO/ OF HEIGHTENED
CONDITIONS WILL PRECLUDE A CRITICAL DESIGNATION.
..SMITH.. 02/25/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 251000
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CST WED FEB 25 2009
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...
...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG PACIFIC ORIGINATING UPPER JET WILL MOVE OVER THE SWRN
STATES/SRN HIGH PLAINS WITH A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW REGIME CONTINUING
INTO THE D2 PERIOD. AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES EWD TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...A SURFACE CYCLONE IN THE VICINITY OF THE CNTRL
PLAINS WILL RAPIDLY MOVE NEWD TOWARDS THE LWR GREAT LAKES BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD. A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
CNTRL PLAINS IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. A COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP SEWD OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL CONUS WITH A DRYLINE NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS AND LOW
RH BEHIND THE DRYLINE WILL COMBINE WITH STRONG WSWLY WINDS TO CREATE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER PARTS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PARTS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: LOW RH / STRONG WINDS / MODERATE DROUGHT
LATEST DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT INDICATES BELT OF STRONGER LOW TO
MID-LEVEL FLOW /45 KTS AT 700 MB/ WILL OVERSPREAD PARTS OF SERN NM
AND WRN/SWRN TX. MAX TEMPS WILL WARM WELL INTO THE 80S AND NEAR 90
WITH MIN RH DROPPING INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SUSTAINED WINDS WILL PROBABLY EXCEED 20MPH AT
TIMES...WITH HIGHER GUSTS LIKELY. RELATIVELY LARGE SPREAD AMONGST
ENSEMBLE OUTPUT INTRODUCES UNCERTAINTY REGARDING AREAL EXTENT OF
CRITICAL CONDITIONS SURROUNDING HIGHLIGHTED REGION. LOWER POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG SUSTAINED WINDS APPEARS TO EXIST OVER SERN AZ/SWRN
NM/PARTS OF WRN TX COMPARED PARTS OF THE SWRN TX AND SERN NM. WILL
DEFER ANY NEEDED SPATIAL ADJUSTMENTS OF CRITICAL AREA TO NEXT D1
UPDATE IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN SUSTAINED WINDS MEETING/EXCEEDING
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
..SMITH.. 02/25/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...