Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 250911
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0311 AM CST WED FEB 25 2009
   
   VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY DENOTES A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW
   REGIME...WITH A SERIES OF LOW AMPLITUDE WAVES MOVING OVER THE CONUS.
    UPPER MIDWEST DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE MOVING E TOWARDS THE GREAT
   LAKES REGION...WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT SLIDING INTO THE CENTRAL
   PLAINS IN WAKE OF THIS UPPER SYSTEM.  MEANWHILE...A DEVELOPING UPPER
   TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE PAC NW.  AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...A LEAD
   DISTURBANCE EMANATING FROM THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE E TOWARDS THE
   CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AND INDUCE LEE SIDE TROUGHING WHERE LOCALIZED
   STRONG SLY WINDS MAY DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF ERN COLORADO.  FURTHER S
   OVER PARTS OF NM...GLANCING INFLUENCE FROM APPROACHING WAVE ALONG
   WITH WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPS AND LOWER RH WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN
   ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS WELL.
   
   ...PARTS OF THE ERN COLORADO PLAINS...
   AS ERN GREAT BASIN DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA...STRONGER BELT
   OF SWLY 700MB FLOW WILL IMPINGE UPON THE REGION.  ALTHOUGH FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DEEP MIXING TO BE UNLIKELY...STRENGTH OF BOUNDARY
   LAYER FLOW FIELDS INDICATES STRONG SUSTAINED WINDS /20-25 MPH/ WITH
   HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WELL E OF FRONT RANGE. 
   MIN RH IS ANTICIPATED ONLY TO FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S WHERE
   THE STRONGER WINDS ARE FORECAST.  ATTM...THE INABILITY OF THE LOWEST
   RH/STRONGEST WINDS TO BE JUXTAPOSED ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MODEL
   OUTPUT APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR AN OTHERWISE MORE
   ROBUST FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ...PARTS OF WRN NM...
   WARM AND WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
   OVER MUCH OF NEW MEXICO.  SOME GUSTY WINDS /NEAR 30 MPH/ WILL LIKELY
   DEVELOP AS LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS DURING THE PERIOD. 
   LIMITED OVERALL NATURE OF RH /TEENS/ AND SUSTAINED WINDS /20
   MPH/...IN ADDITION TO THE SHORT DURATION /HR OR TWO/ OF HEIGHTENED
   CONDITIONS WILL PRECLUDE A CRITICAL DESIGNATION.
   
   ..SMITH.. 02/25/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 251000
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0400 AM CST WED FEB 25 2009
   
   VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   STRONG PACIFIC ORIGINATING UPPER JET WILL MOVE OVER THE SWRN
   STATES/SRN HIGH PLAINS WITH A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW REGIME CONTINUING
   INTO THE D2 PERIOD.  AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES EWD TOWARDS THE
   GREAT LAKES REGION...A SURFACE CYCLONE IN THE VICINITY OF THE CNTRL
   PLAINS WILL RAPIDLY MOVE NEWD TOWARDS THE LWR GREAT LAKES BY THE END
   OF THE PERIOD.  A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
   CNTRL PLAINS IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.  A COLD FRONT WILL
   SWEEP SEWD OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL CONUS WITH A DRYLINE NEARLY
   STATIONARY ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS.  UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS AND LOW
   RH BEHIND THE DRYLINE WILL COMBINE WITH STRONG WSWLY WINDS TO CREATE
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER PARTS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PARTS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: LOW RH / STRONG WINDS / MODERATE DROUGHT
   
   LATEST DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT INDICATES BELT OF STRONGER LOW TO
   MID-LEVEL FLOW /45 KTS AT 700 MB/ WILL OVERSPREAD PARTS OF SERN NM
   AND WRN/SWRN TX.  MAX TEMPS WILL WARM WELL INTO THE 80S AND NEAR 90
   WITH MIN RH DROPPING INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS.  FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SUSTAINED WINDS WILL PROBABLY EXCEED 20MPH AT
   TIMES...WITH HIGHER GUSTS LIKELY.  RELATIVELY LARGE SPREAD AMONGST
   ENSEMBLE OUTPUT INTRODUCES UNCERTAINTY REGARDING AREAL EXTENT OF
   CRITICAL CONDITIONS SURROUNDING HIGHLIGHTED REGION.  LOWER POTENTIAL
   FOR STRONG SUSTAINED WINDS APPEARS TO EXIST OVER SERN AZ/SWRN
   NM/PARTS OF WRN TX COMPARED PARTS OF THE SWRN TX AND SERN NM.  WILL
   DEFER ANY NEEDED SPATIAL ADJUSTMENTS OF CRITICAL AREA TO NEXT D1
   UPDATE IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN SUSTAINED WINDS MEETING/EXCEEDING
   CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
   
   ..SMITH.. 02/25/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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