Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

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   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 260903
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0303 AM CST THU FEB 26 2009
   
   VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   LATEST OBSERVED UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND EARLY MORNING SATELLITE DATA
   DEPICT A STRONG UPPER JET OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.  THIS FEATURE
   WILL STRENGTHEN /130 KTS AT 250 MB/ AND NOSE EWD DURING THE PERIOD
   AHEAD OF A POTENT CYCLONE OVER THE PACIFIC NW.  ONE OF SEVERAL WEAK
   DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE W-E FLOW WILL RAPIDLY MOVE FROM THE WRN
   GREAT BASIN TO THE S-CENTRAL ROCKIES BY 00Z.  A WEAK SURFACE LOW
   WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SRN PLAINS AHEAD OF A SWD SWEEPING COLD FRONT
   WITH AN ATTENDANT QUASI-STATIONARY DRYLINE OVER CNTRL TX. 
   UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS AND LOW RH BEHIND THE DRYLINE WILL COMBINE
   WITH STRONG WSWLY-WLY WINDS TO CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS OVER PARTS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS EXTENDING INTO PARTS OF
   THE DESERT SW.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PARTS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: LOW RH / STRONG WINDS / MODERATE DROUGHT
   
   THE STRONGEST WINDS /25-30 MPH/ WILL LIKELY RESIDE OVER FAR WEST TX
   INTO NM IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BELT OF RELATIVELY STRONGER LOW-MID
   LEVEL FLOW /40 KTS AT 700 MB/...WHEREAS WEAKER SURFACE WINDS /20-25
   MPH/ ARE FORECAST OVER THE TX ROLLING PLAINS REGION.  SUBSTANTIAL
   BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL LIKELY OCCUR...ESPECIALLY IN A THERMAL
   AXIS EXTENDING FROM SWRN TX TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY...FAVORING GUSTS
   APPROACHING 40 MPH IN W TX LOCALES.  RH VALUES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE
   LOW TEENS/SINGLE DIGITS IN AREAS W OF THE CNTRL TX DRYLINE...AS
   TEMPS WARM WELL INTO THE 80S/LOWER 90S.  SLIGHTLY COOLER MAX TEMPS
   OVER SWRN NM/SERN AZ WILL PROBABLY AID IN REDUCING DEEP
   MIXING...RESULTING IN HIGHER RH AND WEAKER GUSTS.
   
   ..SMITH.. 02/26/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 261001
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0401 AM CST THU FEB 26 2009
   
   VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   POTENT H5 CLOSED LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SEWD FROM THE
   N-CNTRL HIGH PLAINS TO THE LWR MO RIVER VALLEY DURING THE D2 PERIOD.
    AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...A DOWNSLOPING REGIME AND RELATIVELY WARM
   WEDGE CONFINED TO A LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL PROMOTE ENHANCED FIRE
   WEATHER CONDITIONS IN A LOCALIZED AREA IN SERN CO AND NERN NM
   ALONG/NEAR THE I-25 CORRIDOR.  ELSEWHERE...A SAGGING COLD FRONT OVER
   THE MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL LIMIT THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT
   OVER THE SRN PLAINS EXCEPT FOR AREAS NEAR THE TX HILL COUNTRY/RIO
   GRANDE.
   
   ...LEE SIDE AREAS IN SERN CO/NERN NM...
   A LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE/LEE-SIDE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ON D2 AS
   HIGHER MOMENTUM FLOW SPILLS OVER THE ROCKIES IN ASSOCIATION WITH
   APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  GUSTY DOWNSLOPING WLY-WNWLY WINDS
   WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITH SUSTAINED WINDS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 20 MPH.
    DESPITE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL HIGH TEMPS IN THE 60S...SUFFICIENT
   BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING MAY YIELD RH VALUES AOB 15 PERCENT.  SUBTLE
   TIMING DIFFERENCES AND PLACEMENT OF LOW LEVEL MASS FIELDS IN MODEL
   DATA INTRODUCE ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY...PRECLUDING A CRITICAL ISSUANCE
   ATTM.  
   
   ...PARTS OF THE TX HILL COUNTRY/RIO GRANDE VLY...
   MODERATE SUSTAINED NWLY WINDS /15-20 MPH/ MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF
   SURGING COLD FRONT IMPINGING UPON THE SRN PLAINS.  WARM TEMPS IN THE
   80S/90S WILL LIKELY RESULT IN RH IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.  VARIABILITY
   EXISTS ON MAGNITUDE OF MIXING DISPLAYED IN LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   AND IMPLIED IN SREF OUTPUT...PRECLUDING A CRITICAL AREA FOR THE TIME
   BEING.
   
   ..SMITH.. 02/26/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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