Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 270921
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0321 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2009
   
   VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF NERN AND E-CNTRL NM...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW RAPIDLY MOVING
   EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS PUSHING E
   ACROSS THE OH/MS VALLEY REGIONS.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER
   TEMPS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
    ON ITS HEELS...A POTENT H5 CLOSED LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
   SEWD FROM WY TO THE CNTRL PLAINS.  AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...A
   DOWNSLOPING REGIME AND RELATIVELY WARM WEDGE CONFINED TO A LEE SIDE
   TROUGH WILL PROMOTE ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER PARTS OF
   SERN CO/NERN AND E-CNTRL NM NEAR AND E OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR. 
   FURTHER SE...RELATIVELY DRY RECYCLED/MODIFIED POLAR AIRMASS OVER FL
   WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LOWER RH DURING PEAK HEATING OVER PARTS OF
   THE WRN HALF OF THE CNTRL PORTION OF THE FL PENINSULA.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PARTS OF NERN AND E-CNTRL NM...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH
   
   A LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE/LEE-SIDE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE
   TO APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.  SW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE CNTRL
   HIGH PLAINS WILL INTERSECT A SURFACE LOW INVOF CO/NM BORDER REGION
   WITH UNFAVORABLE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT.  WITHIN
   THE DOWNSLOPE PRONE AREAS...HIGHER MOMENTUM FLOW WILL SPILL OVER THE
   ROCKIES CREATING SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS
   EXCEEDING 30 MPH AT TIMES.  DESPITE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL HIGH TEMPS IN
   THE 60S...SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL LIKELY YIELD RH
   VALUES AOB 15 PERCENT.
   
   ...SERN CO...
   SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS THAN AREAS FURTHER S IN NM WILL PROBABLY
   LIMIT MIN RH VALUES FROM FALLING BELOW 15 PERCENT WITHIN LOW LEVEL
   THERMAL RIDGE TO THE LEE OF THE MTNS.  PRIMARY FACTORS PRECLUDING A
   CRITICAL AREA ATTM ARE BASED ON...1) UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
   LOCATION OF SURFACE COLD FRONT/ELY FLOW--WHICH WILL HAVE AN
   INFLUENCING IMPACT ON MAGNITUDE OF RH VALUES AND 2) EXPECTED SHORT
   DURATION OF POTENTIALLY CRITICAL RH.
   
   ..SMITH.. 02/27/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 270957
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0357 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2009
   
   VALID 281200Z - 011200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR LARGE PART OF CNTRL AND S TX...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER CLOSED LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL DIG
   SEWD ON BACKSIDE OF ERN U.S. TROUGH AS UPPER RIDGING OCCURS OVER THE
   WRN U.S.  A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH PARTS OF THE SERN U.S. WITH
   HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO MUCH OF THE CNTRL U.S. AND MID SOUTH. 
   STRONG GUSTY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH OVER PARTS OF TX
   CONCURRENT WITH LOW RH WILL RESULT IN A SEEMINGLY FAVORABLE SCENARIO
   FOR FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER A LARGE PART OF TX.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - LARGE PART OF CNTRL AND S TX...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT
   
   STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW /50-70 KTS/ WILL MOVE OVERHEAD DURING THE AFTN
   HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER TROUGH.  DESPITE COOLER TEMPS
   /UPPER 50S TO 60S F/ INFILTRATING MUCH OF THE SRN PLAINS D2 IN
   POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS...A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
   RESULT IN SUSTAINED NW-NLY WINDS /20-30 MPH/ WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS
   APPROACHING 40 MPH.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT IN DENOTING A
   RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT BY THE EVENING HOURS.  DRY UPSTREAM
   CONTINENTAL TRAJECTORIES WILL SUPPORT THE NOTION BY FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS AND LATEST SREF OUTPUT IN SUGGESTING RH WILL LIKELY FALL
   INTO THE TEENS/20S DURING PEAK HEATING WITH GRADUAL RECOVERY
   EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING HRS.
   
   ..SMITH.. 02/27/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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