Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 070659
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1259 AM CST SAT MAR 07 2009
   
   VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SERN AZ...SRN AND ERN NM...WRN
   TX...NWRN OK...TX PANHANDLE...SERN CO/SWRN KS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER ERN CO/WRN KS THIS AFTERNOON
   IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. VERY
   STRONG SLY/SWLY WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...WITH
   LOW RH AND A CRITICAL FIRE THREAT MAINLY WEST OF A DRYLINE.
   MEANWHILE IN THE SOUTHEAST...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
   LINGER...WITH WARM TEMPERATURES...LOW RH AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS
   DOMINATING.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SERN AZ...SRN AND ERN NM...WRN
   TX...NWRN OK...TX PANHANDLE...SERN CO/SWRN KS...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS...LOW RH...DROUGHT
   
   SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY ANALYZED NEAR THE KS/CO BORDERS WILL
   CONTINUE TO DEEPEN TODAY IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING
   FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGH THE EARLY
   MORNING...WITH SWLY/SLY WINDS INITIALLY NEAR 10 TO 15 MPH. AS
   TEMPERATURES RISE THROUGH THE MORNING...HIGHER SPEEDS WILL QUICKLY
   MIX TO THE SURFACE...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH AND GUSTS
   UP TO 50 TO 60 MPH EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY COOLER
   TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL LIMIT EXTREMELY LOW RHS...VALUES IN THE
   TEENS AND LOWER 20S WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR CRITICAL FIRE
   CONDITIONS GIVEN DROUGHT CONDITIONS...LACK OF RECENT RAINFALL...AND
   DRY FUELS. FURTHERMORE...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST
   OVERNIGHT...POSING A THREAT TO ANY ONGOING FIRES. HOWEVER...THE
   THREAT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS MUCH COOLER
   TEMPERATURES ALLOW RHS TO RECOVER.
   
   ...SRN/CNTRL/N CNTRL TX AND CNTRL OK...
   RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL
   THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER...WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL ALIGN WITH
   STRONG SLY WINDS NEAR 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACROSS A
   WIDESPREAD AREA. GIVEN SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT...LACK OF RECENT
   RAINFALL...AND EXTREMELY DRY FUELS THAT HAVE BEEN CONDUCIVE TO
   NUMEROUS FIRE STARTS RECENTLY...A HEIGHTENED FIRE THREAT WILL EXIST.
   
   
   ...CNTRL AND SRN FL...
   SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO
   WARM TEMPERATURES AND MARGINAL RHS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. DRY
   SELY/ELY FLOW...SUPPORTED BY 00Z SOUNDINGS AND CURRENT WV
   IMAGERY...WILL ALLOW LITTLE MOISTURE TO RETURN TO CNTRL AND SRN FL.
   MARGINAL RHS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL ALIGN WITH SURFACE WINDS NEAR
   15 MPH. GIVEN MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT...LITTLE TO NO RECENT
   PRECIPITATION...AND HIGH KBDI VALUES...AN INCREASED RISK OF FIRE
   STARTS WILL EXIST.
   
   ..HURLBUT.. 03/07/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 070746
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0146 AM CST SAT MAR 07 2009
   
   VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY LIFT NEWD THROUGH THE UPPER
   MS VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW WILL
   MOVE INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH A COLD FRONT
   EXTENDING SWD THROUGH THE MS VALLEY AND SWWD INTO CNTRL TX WHERE IT
   WILL BEGIN TO STALL.
   
   MEANWHILE UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CNTRL STATES WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
   THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH IN THE WEST BEGINS TO DEEPEN. THIS WILL
   OVERSPREAD SWLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST AND THE CENTRAL STATES
   BY THE AFTERNOON. IN RESPONSE...LEE TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP...AND
   SLY/SWLY SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NM/TX/OK/KS
   AND CO. ALTHOUGH SPEEDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER THAN PREVIOUS
   DAYS...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS WILL LEAD TO A HEIGHTENED
   FIRE THREAT.
   
   ...ERN NM/TX AND OK PANHANDLES/SWRN KS/SERN CO...
   LEE TROUGHING WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF INCREASING SWLY FLOW
   ALOFT AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN STATES.
   TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER COMPARED TO D1 FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL
   PASSAGE...ALTHOUGH IN GENERAL RHS WILL REMAIN IN THE TEENS TO LOWER
   20S. WINDS APPEAR TO BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
   NEAR 15 TO 25 MPH EXPECTED. HOWEVER...SHOULD HIGHER SPEEDS APPEAR
   LIKELY...A CRITICAL MAY NEED TO BE OUTLINED TOMORROW.
   
   ..HURLBUT.. 03/07/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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