Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 080709
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0109 AM CST SUN MAR 08 2009
   
   VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL QUICKLY LIFT NEWD
   THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...BECOMING POSITIONED OVER ERN
   ONTARIO LATE IN THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW WILL MOVE INTO
   THE WRN GREAT LAKES BY AFTERNOON...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD
   THROUGH THE MS VALLEY...THEN WSWWD INTO CNTRL TX WHERE IT WILL BEGIN
   TO STALL. 
   
   MEANWHILE UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CNTRL STATES WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
   THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH IN THE WEST BEGINS TO DEEPEN. THIS WILL
   OVERSPREAD SWLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST AND THE CENTRAL STATES
   BY THE AFTERNOON. IN RESPONSE...LEE TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP...AND
   SLY/SWLY SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NM/TX/OK/KS
   AND CO. ALTHOUGH SPEEDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER THAN PREVIOUS
   DAYS...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS WILL LEAD TO A HEIGHTENED
   FIRE THREAT.
   
   ...ERN NM/TX AND OK PANHANDLES/SWRN KS/SERN CO...
   LEE TROUGHING WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF INCREASING SWLY FLOW
   ALOFT AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN STATES. MARGINAL
   FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RESULT ACROSS THE AREA BY THE
   AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...WITH
   VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 60S. DESPITE THIS...RHS WILL DROP INTO THE
   TEENS...MAINLY ACROSS ERN NM...THE TX AND OK PANHANDLES...SWRN
   KS...AND SERN CO. SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
   MARGINAL...WITH 15 TO 25 MPH EXPECTED AND BRIEF GUSTS TO 40 MPH
   POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF STRONG WINDS ALIGNING WITH LOW
   RH APPEARS TO BE NERN NM AND THE TX PANHANDLES...ALTHOUGH DURATION
   WILL BE LIKELY BE SHORT.
   
   ..HURLBUT.. 03/08/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 080754
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0154 AM CST SUN MAR 08 2009
   
   VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ERN NM...TX/OK PANHANDLES...SERN
   CO...SWRN KS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A WESTERN TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES...INDUCING A
   SURFACE LOW NEAR THE CO/KS BORDERS. SWLY/SLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
   ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN PLAINS...ALIGNING WITH LOW/MARGINAL RHS NEAR
   ERN NM...THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...SERN CO...AND SWRN KS. DRY
   CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHILE
   WINDS SLOWLY SHIFT TO WLY.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - ERN NM...TX/OK PANHANDLES...SERN
   CO...SWRN KS...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS...LOW RH
   
   LATEST TRENDS/OBSERVATIONS APPEAR TO INDICATE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS
   HAVE OVERESTIMATED THE EXTENT OF DRY AIR THAT WILL AFFECT THE
   REGION. A SPLIT FLOW REGIME HAS BEEN PREDOMINANT...WITH THE SOUTHERN
   MOST JET ALLOWING A MODIFIED PACIFIC AIRMASS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA.
   AS THE WESTERN TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG...THE ORIENTATION OF THE
   SOUTHERN STREAM JET WILL ALLOW FOR A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF HIGH
   CLOUDS TO STREAM INTO THE SRN PLAINS...WITH THE WESTERN EDGE OVER
   THE CRITICAL OUTLINE. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE REFLECTED THIS...WITH
   RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURE FORECASTS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO
   LOWER 70S...AND MARGINAL RHS IN THE 20S. SHOULD A TREND FOR HIGHER
   RHS CONTINUE IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS...THE CRITICAL WILL BE REDUCED
   TO A SEE TEXT. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED TO BE
   STRONG...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS NEAR 20 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 45
   MPH. DRY CONDITIONS MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT AS WINDS SLOWLY SHIFT TO
   WLY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AT THE MOMENT...THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD
   OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS APPEARS TO BE NEAR THE TX/OK PANHANDLES.
   
   ..HURLBUT.. 03/08/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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