Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 210742
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0242 AM CDT SAT MAR 21 2009
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE
CONUS TOWARDS THE END OF THE D1 PERIOD AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN THE
CNTRL U.S. AND A TROUGH DIGS S ALONG THE W COAST. EARLY MORNING
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK SRN STREAM IMPULSE TRAVERSING ACROSS
THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WHILE A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES RAPIDLY SEWD ON THE
BACKSIDE OF A LARGER SCALE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE E COAST. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO. DRY
CONTINENTAL AIR /SAMPLED BY CHS-FFC 00Z/21 RAOBS/ WILL PUSH SWD OVER
PARTS OF THE NERN GULF REGION LEADING TO A PERIOD OF LOWER RH VALUES
DURING THE AFTN HRS. FURTHER W IN ASSOCIATION WITH APPROACHING W
COAST TROUGH...BROAD SLY FLOW REGIME OVER THE PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY
ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NWD IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING SYSTEM.
...PARTS OF AL/GA/FL PANHANDLE/NWRN PORTION OF FL PENINSULA...
RH MAY AGAIN FALL BELOW 35 ACROSS PARTS OF THE WRN/NRN HALF OF THE
FL PENINSULA AND BELOW 30 PERCENT OVER PARTS OF THE FL PANHANDLE AND
PARTS OF GA/AL. MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENTLY INDICATING THE
STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY RESIDE
OVER PARTS OF THE FL PENINSULA WITH A MORE RELAXED GRADIENT/WEAKER
WINDS OVER THE FL PANHANDLE/GA/AL REGION. THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR A
MORE ROBUST FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS DUE PRIMARILY TO EXPECTED MODEST
ENELY SUSTAINED WINDS /GENERALLY BELOW 15 MPH SUSTAINED OVER THE
PENINSULA AND AOB 10 MPH OVER AREAS TO THE N/. IT APPEARS LOCALIZED
CRITICAL RH VALUES AND WINDS NEAR 15 MPH WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 20 MPH
MAY BRIEFLY OCCUR OVER PARTS OF THE NWRN FL PENINSULA.
HOWEVER...THESE ELEVATED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY BE MET
INTERMITTENTLY FOR A SHORT DURATION /1-3 HRS/...PRECLUDING A
CRITICAL ISSUANCE.
..SMITH.. 03/21/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 210950
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0450 AM CDT SAT MAR 21 2009
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SERN AZ / LARGE PART OF NM / SERN
CO...
...SYNOPSIS...
POTENT UPPER DISTURBANCE IDENTIFIED ON EARLY MORNING SATELLITE
IMAGERY /LOCATED 800 MI W OF PAC NW COAST/ WILL RAPIDLY MOVE SEWD
TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY 00Z/23RD. THIS DISTURBANCE IS
WITHIN A DEVELOPING LARGER SCALE TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS THE WRN
STATES. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...STRONG CYCLOGENESIS AND LEE
TROUGHING WILL OCCUR OVER THE HIGH PLAINS LATE IN THE PERIOD IN
RESPONSE TO APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE W. ANTECEDENT DRY AIRMASS
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE DESERT SW AND SRN HIGH PLAINS REGIONS
WILL CO-LOCATE WITH STRONG SURFACE WINDS--RESULTING IN CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS SUNDAY OVER A SIZABLE AREA OF THE DESERT SW AND
S-CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SERN AZ / LARGE PART OF NM / SERN
CO...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / RECENT DRYNESS--MODERATE
DROUGHT
WIND PROFILES WILL STRENGTHEN MARKEDLY ACROSS THE SWRN STATES EARLY
SUNDAY AS 100 KT 500 MB JET CORE OVERSPREADS THE LOWER CO RIVER
VALLEY BY 00Z/23. AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND GRADUALLY
COOLING MID-LEVEL TEMPS WILL YIELD STEEP LAPSE RATES...AS INDICATED
BY SUITE OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS. FAIRLY DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
OVER SERN AZ AND WRN NM...WILL RESULT IN RH VALUES 8-12
PERCENT...AND PARTIALLY AID IN SOME TRANSPORT OF HIGHER MOMENTUM
FLOW /40 KTS 700 MB/ TO THE SURFACE. STRONG SWLY SURFACE WINDS
/25-30 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH/ WILL BE COMMON OVER SERN AZ AND
PARTS OF WRN NM. FURTHER E...LOW LEVEL MASS RESPONSE WILL FOCUS
OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND S-CNTRL HIGH PLAINS LATE IN THE PERIOD.
LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SHALLOWER
MIXED PROFILES AND HIGHER RH /TEENS/ ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE HIGH
PLAINS W OF THE NWD RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE. NONETHELESS...STRONG
SWLY/S /20-25 MPH/ WILL PROBABLY OCCUR NEAR PEAK HEATING OWING TO
THE STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION.
...NERN GULF OF MEXICO REGION...
LITTLE CHANGE IN MOISTURE QUALITY IS EXPECTED FROM D1 TO D2 WITH A
DRY AIRMASS REMAINING ENTRENCHED ON PERIPHERY OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. RH VALUES MAY AGAIN
FALL INTO THE 30S OVER FL PANHANDLE AND INTO THE 20S IN MORE
INTERIOR LOCALES /GA-AL/. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
RELAX AND WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY WEAK SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10
MPH...PRECLUDING A CRITICAL AREA.
..SMITH.. 03/21/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...