Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 210742
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0242 AM CDT SAT MAR 21 2009
   
   VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE
   CONUS TOWARDS THE END OF THE D1 PERIOD AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN THE
   CNTRL U.S. AND A TROUGH DIGS S ALONG THE W COAST.  EARLY MORNING
   SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK SRN STREAM IMPULSE TRAVERSING ACROSS
   THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WHILE A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES RAPIDLY SEWD ON THE
   BACKSIDE OF A LARGER SCALE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE E COAST.  AT THE
   SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC
   COAST WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO.  DRY
   CONTINENTAL AIR /SAMPLED BY CHS-FFC 00Z/21 RAOBS/ WILL PUSH SWD OVER
   PARTS OF THE NERN GULF REGION LEADING TO A PERIOD OF LOWER RH VALUES
   DURING THE AFTN HRS.  FURTHER W IN ASSOCIATION WITH APPROACHING W
   COAST TROUGH...BROAD SLY FLOW REGIME OVER THE PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY
   ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NWD IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING SYSTEM.
   
   ...PARTS OF AL/GA/FL PANHANDLE/NWRN PORTION OF FL PENINSULA...
   RH MAY AGAIN FALL BELOW 35 ACROSS PARTS OF THE WRN/NRN HALF OF THE
   FL PENINSULA AND BELOW 30 PERCENT OVER PARTS OF THE FL PANHANDLE AND
   PARTS OF GA/AL.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENTLY INDICATING THE
   STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY RESIDE
   OVER PARTS OF THE FL PENINSULA WITH A MORE RELAXED GRADIENT/WEAKER
   WINDS OVER THE FL PANHANDLE/GA/AL REGION.  THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR A
   MORE ROBUST FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS DUE PRIMARILY TO EXPECTED MODEST
   ENELY SUSTAINED WINDS /GENERALLY BELOW 15 MPH SUSTAINED OVER THE
   PENINSULA AND AOB 10 MPH OVER AREAS TO THE N/.  IT APPEARS LOCALIZED
   CRITICAL RH VALUES AND WINDS NEAR 15 MPH WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 20 MPH
   MAY BRIEFLY OCCUR OVER PARTS OF THE NWRN FL PENINSULA. 
   HOWEVER...THESE ELEVATED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY BE MET
   INTERMITTENTLY FOR A SHORT DURATION /1-3 HRS/...PRECLUDING A
   CRITICAL ISSUANCE.
   
   ..SMITH.. 03/21/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 210950
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0450 AM CDT SAT MAR 21 2009
   
   VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SERN AZ / LARGE PART OF NM / SERN
   CO...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   POTENT UPPER DISTURBANCE IDENTIFIED ON EARLY MORNING SATELLITE
   IMAGERY /LOCATED 800 MI W OF PAC NW COAST/ WILL RAPIDLY MOVE SEWD
   TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY 00Z/23RD.  THIS DISTURBANCE IS
   WITHIN A DEVELOPING LARGER SCALE TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS THE WRN
   STATES.  AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...STRONG CYCLOGENESIS AND LEE
   TROUGHING WILL OCCUR OVER THE HIGH PLAINS LATE IN THE PERIOD IN
   RESPONSE TO APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE W.  ANTECEDENT DRY AIRMASS
   CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE DESERT SW AND SRN HIGH PLAINS REGIONS
   WILL CO-LOCATE WITH STRONG SURFACE WINDS--RESULTING IN CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER CONDITIONS SUNDAY OVER A SIZABLE AREA OF THE DESERT SW AND
   S-CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SERN AZ / LARGE PART OF NM / SERN
   CO...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / RECENT DRYNESS--MODERATE
   DROUGHT
   
   WIND PROFILES WILL STRENGTHEN MARKEDLY ACROSS THE SWRN STATES EARLY
   SUNDAY AS 100 KT 500 MB JET CORE OVERSPREADS THE LOWER CO RIVER
   VALLEY BY 00Z/23.  AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND GRADUALLY
   COOLING MID-LEVEL TEMPS WILL YIELD STEEP LAPSE RATES...AS INDICATED
   BY SUITE OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS.  FAIRLY DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
   OVER SERN AZ AND WRN NM...WILL RESULT IN RH VALUES 8-12
   PERCENT...AND PARTIALLY AID IN SOME TRANSPORT OF HIGHER MOMENTUM
   FLOW /40 KTS 700 MB/ TO THE SURFACE.  STRONG SWLY SURFACE WINDS
   /25-30 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH/ WILL BE COMMON OVER SERN AZ AND
   PARTS OF WRN NM.  FURTHER E...LOW LEVEL MASS RESPONSE WILL FOCUS
   OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND S-CNTRL HIGH PLAINS LATE IN THE PERIOD. 
   LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SHALLOWER
   MIXED PROFILES AND HIGHER RH /TEENS/ ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE HIGH
   PLAINS W OF THE NWD RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE.  NONETHELESS...STRONG
   SWLY/S /20-25 MPH/ WILL PROBABLY OCCUR NEAR PEAK HEATING OWING TO
   THE STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION.
   
   ...NERN GULF OF MEXICO REGION...
   LITTLE CHANGE IN MOISTURE QUALITY IS EXPECTED FROM D1 TO D2 WITH A
   DRY AIRMASS REMAINING ENTRENCHED ON PERIPHERY OF SURFACE HIGH
   PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS.  RH VALUES MAY AGAIN
   FALL INTO THE 30S OVER FL PANHANDLE AND INTO THE 20S IN MORE
   INTERIOR LOCALES /GA-AL/.  THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
   RELAX AND WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY WEAK SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10
   MPH...PRECLUDING A CRITICAL AREA.
   
   ..SMITH.. 03/21/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

Fire Weather/Forecast Products/Home