Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 220819
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0319 AM CDT SUN MAR 22 2009
   
   VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SERN AZ / LARGE PART OF NM / SERN 
   CO / FAR W TX...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH /OBSERVED BY RECENT W COAST RAOBS AND EARLY
   MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY/ WILL CONTINUE TO DIG ACROSS THE SWRN U.S.
   WITH 110 KT 500 MB SPEED MAX PUNCHING E OVER AZ AROUND 00Z.  LOW
   LEVEL MASS FIELDS WILL RESPOND VIGOROUSLY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE OVER
   THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.  AN ANTECEDENT DRY AIRMASS WILL COMBINE WITH
   STRONG SURFACE WINDS ON SUNDAY IN A CORRIDOR FROM SERN AZ NEWD INTO
   THE CO HIGH PLAINS AND RESULT IN WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS.  A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER NERN CO AND ATTENDANT N-S
   ORIENTED DRYLINE WILL PARTIALLY SERVE AS THE ERN BOUNDS TO THE
   CRITICAL THREAT AREA.  MEANWHILE FURTHER E...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
   RIDGE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SERN U.S. 
   RELATIVELY DRY AIR WILL SERVE TO ENHANCE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT
   OVER PARTS OF FL/DEEP SOUTH...ESPECIALLY WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS
   APPROACH 15 MPH IN LOCALIZED AREAS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SERN AZ / LARGE PART OF NM / SERN 
   CO / FAR W TX...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / RECENT DRYNESS--MODERATE
   DROUGHT
   
   WIND PROFILES WILL STRENGTHEN MARKEDLY ACROSS THE SWRN STATES ACTING
   AS ONE OF THE PRIMARY CATALYSTS TO A SUBSTANTIAL FIRE WEATHER
   THREAT.  AMPLE SUNSHINE/SURFACE HEATING WILL AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF
   DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER CIRCULATIONS AND THE MIXING OF DRY AIR ALOFT TO
   THE SURFACE.  RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO PLUMMET WELL INTO THE UPPER
   SINGLE DIGITS OVER PARTS OF NM AND E OF THE CO FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS
   WHERE THE DOWNSLOPE/SUBSIDENCE CONTRIBUTION WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED.
    STRONG MID-LEVEL WINDS /40 KTS 700 MB/ WILL MIX AND SUSTAINED SWLY
   WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE OVER MOST OF THE
   HIGHLIGHTED AREA---BUT GUSTS MAY BE AROUND 45 MPH IN LOCALIZED
   AREAS.  FARTHER S...AND W OF THE DRYLINE OVER PARTS OF FAR ERN
   NM/OK-TX PANHANDLES...LESS VOLATILE RH VALUES /TEENS/ ARE EXPECTED.
   
   ...NERN GULF OF MEXICO REGION...
   DRY AIRMASS FOR THE MOST PART WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS PARTS OF
   FL AND PARTS OF THE DEEP SOUTH ON SRN PERIPHERY OF SURFACE HIGH
   PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS.  SOME GUSTY WINDS /20
   MPH/ AND MARGINALLY CRITICAL RH /NEAR 35 PERCENT/ MAY DEVELOP AS FAR
   S AS THE SWRN PART OF THE PENINSULA--POTENTIALLY LEADING TO
   LOCALIZED CRITICAL CONDITIONS IN THIS REGION.  FURTHER N...RH VALUES
   MAY AGAIN FALL INTO THE 30S OVER FL PANHANDLE/N FL AND INTO THE 20S
   IN MORE INTERIOR LOCALES /GA-AL/.  THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
   TO BE WEAKER OVER NRN AREAS...SUGGESTING THE OVERALL THREAT MAY BE
   LESS THAN POINTS FURTHER S.
   
   ..SMITH.. 03/22/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 220944
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0444 AM CDT SUN MAR 22 2009
   
   VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SWRN KS / WRN OK / LARGE PARTS OF
   W TX AND SERN HALF OF NM...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH EWD INTO THE PLAINS STATES MONDAY
   AS A DEEP CLOSED LOW EJECTS NEWD OVER NEB BY 00Z/24.  COMPLEX
   SURFACE SETUP WILL FEATURE A GENERALLY N-S ORIENTED DRYLINE LOCATED
   FROM NRN KS SWD TO THE RIO GRANDE.  THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE INTO
   PARTS OF CNTRL KS/WRN OK/TRANS-PECOS REGION OF TX AHEAD OF A PACIFIC
   COLD FRONT SWEEPING EWD FROM THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE SRN HIGH
   PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD.  AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER CONDITIONS IS VERY LIKELY FROM PARTS OF THE DESERT SW
   EXTENDING EWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS AND SRN HIGH PLAINS.  FURTHER
   E...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN INFLUENCE PARTS OF THE SERN
   U.S.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SWRN KS / WRN OK / LARGE PARTS OF W
   TX AND SERN HALF OF NM...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: VERY STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / MODERATE-SEVERE
   DROUGHT
   
   AS WRN U.S. SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS...DRY/WARM AIR
   EMANATING FROM THE DESERT SW/PLATEAU AND A LARGE SWATH OF 60-75 KT
   500 MB WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION.  BOTH NAM/GFS MODELS DEPICT
   A PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL DRYSLOT PUSHING NEWD TOWARDS OCCLUDING
   CYCLONE...WHICH IS OVERTOP A POST-DRYLINE NEWD EXTENDING LOW LEVEL
   THERMAL AXIS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THESE VERY DEEPLY MIXED
   PROFILES--CONDUCIVE FOR RH TO PLUMMET WELL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. 
   STRONG TO VERY STRONG WINDS WILL BE COMMON OVER THE CRITICAL AREA
   WITH SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS --OVER NRN AREAS-- AND WLY --SWRN AREAS--
   WITH WIND SPEEDS OF 20-35 MPH COMMON.  AS THE COLD FRONT
   PASSES...WINDS WILL VEER TO A W-WNWLY DIRECTION.
   
   ONE WILDCARD IN D2 FORECAST IS PRIMARILY DUE TO SOME ISOLD RECENT
   AND D1 FORECAST PRECIPITATION OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH
   PLAINS...WHICH MAY LOCALLY IMPACT FUEL RESPONSE. 
   NONETHELESS...RAPID DRYING IN POST-DRYLINE AIRMASS AHEAD OF PACIFIC
   COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY READY IMPACTED FUELS GIVEN MORE THAN
   SUFFICIENT DURATION OF LOW RH/STRONG WIND CONDITIONS.
   
   VERY STRONG LOW TO MID-LEVEL WIND PROFILES LOCATED WITHIN VERY DRY
   POST-DRYLINE LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE MAY POTENTIALLY SUPPORT
   LOCALIZED EXTREMELY CRITICAL CONDITIONS WITHIN BROAD CRITICAL AREA. 
   A POTENTIAL UPGRADE TO EXTREMELY CRITICAL OVER PARTS OF THE
   HIGHLIGHTED REGION MAY BE REQUIRED IN NEXT OUTLOOK UPDATE IF ABOVE
   SCENARIO IS APPEARS IMMINENT.
   
   ..SMITH.. 03/22/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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