Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 220819
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0319 AM CDT SUN MAR 22 2009
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SERN AZ / LARGE PART OF NM / SERN
CO / FAR W TX...
...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH /OBSERVED BY RECENT W COAST RAOBS AND EARLY
MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY/ WILL CONTINUE TO DIG ACROSS THE SWRN U.S.
WITH 110 KT 500 MB SPEED MAX PUNCHING E OVER AZ AROUND 00Z. LOW
LEVEL MASS FIELDS WILL RESPOND VIGOROUSLY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE OVER
THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. AN ANTECEDENT DRY AIRMASS WILL COMBINE WITH
STRONG SURFACE WINDS ON SUNDAY IN A CORRIDOR FROM SERN AZ NEWD INTO
THE CO HIGH PLAINS AND RESULT IN WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER NERN CO AND ATTENDANT N-S
ORIENTED DRYLINE WILL PARTIALLY SERVE AS THE ERN BOUNDS TO THE
CRITICAL THREAT AREA. MEANWHILE FURTHER E...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SERN U.S.
RELATIVELY DRY AIR WILL SERVE TO ENHANCE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT
OVER PARTS OF FL/DEEP SOUTH...ESPECIALLY WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS
APPROACH 15 MPH IN LOCALIZED AREAS.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SERN AZ / LARGE PART OF NM / SERN
CO / FAR W TX...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / RECENT DRYNESS--MODERATE
DROUGHT
WIND PROFILES WILL STRENGTHEN MARKEDLY ACROSS THE SWRN STATES ACTING
AS ONE OF THE PRIMARY CATALYSTS TO A SUBSTANTIAL FIRE WEATHER
THREAT. AMPLE SUNSHINE/SURFACE HEATING WILL AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF
DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER CIRCULATIONS AND THE MIXING OF DRY AIR ALOFT TO
THE SURFACE. RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO PLUMMET WELL INTO THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS OVER PARTS OF NM AND E OF THE CO FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS
WHERE THE DOWNSLOPE/SUBSIDENCE CONTRIBUTION WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED.
STRONG MID-LEVEL WINDS /40 KTS 700 MB/ WILL MIX AND SUSTAINED SWLY
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE OVER MOST OF THE
HIGHLIGHTED AREA---BUT GUSTS MAY BE AROUND 45 MPH IN LOCALIZED
AREAS. FARTHER S...AND W OF THE DRYLINE OVER PARTS OF FAR ERN
NM/OK-TX PANHANDLES...LESS VOLATILE RH VALUES /TEENS/ ARE EXPECTED.
...NERN GULF OF MEXICO REGION...
DRY AIRMASS FOR THE MOST PART WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS PARTS OF
FL AND PARTS OF THE DEEP SOUTH ON SRN PERIPHERY OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. SOME GUSTY WINDS /20
MPH/ AND MARGINALLY CRITICAL RH /NEAR 35 PERCENT/ MAY DEVELOP AS FAR
S AS THE SWRN PART OF THE PENINSULA--POTENTIALLY LEADING TO
LOCALIZED CRITICAL CONDITIONS IN THIS REGION. FURTHER N...RH VALUES
MAY AGAIN FALL INTO THE 30S OVER FL PANHANDLE/N FL AND INTO THE 20S
IN MORE INTERIOR LOCALES /GA-AL/. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
TO BE WEAKER OVER NRN AREAS...SUGGESTING THE OVERALL THREAT MAY BE
LESS THAN POINTS FURTHER S.
..SMITH.. 03/22/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 220944
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0444 AM CDT SUN MAR 22 2009
VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SWRN KS / WRN OK / LARGE PARTS OF
W TX AND SERN HALF OF NM...
...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH EWD INTO THE PLAINS STATES MONDAY
AS A DEEP CLOSED LOW EJECTS NEWD OVER NEB BY 00Z/24. COMPLEX
SURFACE SETUP WILL FEATURE A GENERALLY N-S ORIENTED DRYLINE LOCATED
FROM NRN KS SWD TO THE RIO GRANDE. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE INTO
PARTS OF CNTRL KS/WRN OK/TRANS-PECOS REGION OF TX AHEAD OF A PACIFIC
COLD FRONT SWEEPING EWD FROM THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD. AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS IS VERY LIKELY FROM PARTS OF THE DESERT SW
EXTENDING EWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS AND SRN HIGH PLAINS. FURTHER
E...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN INFLUENCE PARTS OF THE SERN
U.S.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SWRN KS / WRN OK / LARGE PARTS OF W
TX AND SERN HALF OF NM...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: VERY STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / MODERATE-SEVERE
DROUGHT
AS WRN U.S. SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS...DRY/WARM AIR
EMANATING FROM THE DESERT SW/PLATEAU AND A LARGE SWATH OF 60-75 KT
500 MB WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION. BOTH NAM/GFS MODELS DEPICT
A PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL DRYSLOT PUSHING NEWD TOWARDS OCCLUDING
CYCLONE...WHICH IS OVERTOP A POST-DRYLINE NEWD EXTENDING LOW LEVEL
THERMAL AXIS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THESE VERY DEEPLY MIXED
PROFILES--CONDUCIVE FOR RH TO PLUMMET WELL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.
STRONG TO VERY STRONG WINDS WILL BE COMMON OVER THE CRITICAL AREA
WITH SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS --OVER NRN AREAS-- AND WLY --SWRN AREAS--
WITH WIND SPEEDS OF 20-35 MPH COMMON. AS THE COLD FRONT
PASSES...WINDS WILL VEER TO A W-WNWLY DIRECTION.
ONE WILDCARD IN D2 FORECAST IS PRIMARILY DUE TO SOME ISOLD RECENT
AND D1 FORECAST PRECIPITATION OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH
PLAINS...WHICH MAY LOCALLY IMPACT FUEL RESPONSE.
NONETHELESS...RAPID DRYING IN POST-DRYLINE AIRMASS AHEAD OF PACIFIC
COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY READY IMPACTED FUELS GIVEN MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT DURATION OF LOW RH/STRONG WIND CONDITIONS.
VERY STRONG LOW TO MID-LEVEL WIND PROFILES LOCATED WITHIN VERY DRY
POST-DRYLINE LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE MAY POTENTIALLY SUPPORT
LOCALIZED EXTREMELY CRITICAL CONDITIONS WITHIN BROAD CRITICAL AREA.
A POTENTIAL UPGRADE TO EXTREMELY CRITICAL OVER PARTS OF THE
HIGHLIGHTED REGION MAY BE REQUIRED IN NEXT OUTLOOK UPDATE IF ABOVE
SCENARIO IS APPEARS IMMINENT.
..SMITH.. 03/22/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...