Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 240842
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0342 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE FL PENINSULA...
...SYNOPSIS...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER A
LARGE PART OF THE CONUS AS DEPARTING DEEP OCCLUDED CYCLONE MOVES
FROM THE N-CNTRL PLAINS NEWD TO THE UPPER MIDWEST. FURTHER W OVER
THE NWRN PART OF THE GREAT BASIN...EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A WEAK IMPULSE MOVING RAPIDLY SEWD AND THIS FEATURE WILL BE
OVER NM BY 12Z/25. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EWD INTO
THE MS RIVER VALLEY BUT AS THE SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS MOVES
NEWD...THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER TX AND EXTEND WWD INTO THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS AS LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT IMPULSE. GUSTY
WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL CONUS SUPPORTING ENHANCED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS INVOF THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. FURTHER
E...UPPER RIDGING WILL OCCUR OVER PARTS OF THE ERN STATES WITH A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING SWD ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD.
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH ARE PROBABLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE FL
PENINSULA...WARRANTING A CRITICAL DESIGNATION.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PARTS OF THE FL PENINSULA...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: MODERATELY STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / EXTREMELY
HIGH KBDI
...PARTS OF THE FL PENINSULA...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION AS AFTN HIGH
TEMPS WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING...AIDING BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING.
RELATIVELY DRY AIR /SINCE PARTIALLY MODIFIED FROM PREVIOUS FRONTAL
INTRUSION INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC/ WILL COMBINE WITH STRONG SURFACE
HEATING--YIELDING MIN RH VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 30-35 PERCENT RANGE
WITH UPPER 20S POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS.
OF PERHAPS GREATER CONCERN IS STRENGTH OF ELY WINDS EXPECTED.
00Z/24 AREA RAOBS OVER CNTRL/SRN FL DEPICTED MODESTLY STRONG 975-900
MB FLOW /15-20 KTS/. LATEST DETERMINISTIC MODELS SUGGEST RELATIVELY
STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL PERSIST MAINLY OVER PARTS OF
CNTRL/SRN FL PENINSULA. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUSTAINED ELY WINDS
AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH LIKELY AT TIMES.
...SWRN KS/NWRN OK/NERN TX PANHANDLE...
STRONG SUSTAINED NWLY WINDS /20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS
APPROACHING 40 MPH/ WILL LIKELY OCCUR TUESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE
CNTRL PLAINS IN WAKE OF DEPARTING SYSTEM. WITH RELATIVELY COOL HIGH
TEMPS ONLY FORECAST IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60...MIN RH IS ONLY EXPECTED
TO FALL INTO THE 20S DURING PEAK HEATING. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
LARGE AGREEMENT THAT BELT OF STRONGEST SUSTAINED WINDS WILL PROBABLY
BE LOCATED OVER CNTRL/ERN KS WHEREAS LOWER RH WILL LIKELY BE LOCATED
FARTHER SW OVER PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE /15-20 PERCENT/. SOME
OVERLAP OF STRONGER WINDS /20 MPH AND HIGHER GUSTS / AND MODESTLY
LOW RH /LOWER 20S/ APPEARS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...DESPITE THESE
EXPECTED BORDERLINE CRITICAL CONDITIONS...SHORT DURATION AND
RELATIVELY COOL TEMPS PRECLUDE A CRITICAL DESIGNATION.
..SMITH.. 03/24/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 240958
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0458 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SRN/ERN NM / TX S PLAINS
AND MUCH OF SWRN TX...
...SYNOPSIS...
LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER DISTURBANCE ROUNDING BASE OF LARGER SCALE TROUGH
CENTERED OVER THE CNTRL CONUS WILL EJECT EWD FROM NM TO THE MID MS
RIVER VALLEY. A WEAK LEE SIDE LOW INVOF NERN NM AND LEE TROUGH WILL
EXTEND SWD TOWARDS THE TX BIG BEND REGION. FURTHER E...WWD MOISTURE
RETURN TO THE W OF THE TX HILLCOUNTRY WILL BE THWARTED AS A SURFACE
WAVE DEVELOPS AND MOVES EWD ALONG WAVY BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE
ARKLATEX REGION AND MID-SOUTH. ACCOMPANYING THE EJECTING IMPULSE
OVER THE SRN ROCKIES/PLAINS WILL BE MODERATELY STRONG LOW TO
MID-LEVEL FLOW. AN ANTECEDENTLY DRY AIRMASS IS ALREADY IN PLACE
ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS/MEXICAN PLATEAU REGION WILL COMBINE WITH
STRONG WINDS TO FAVOR A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER EPISODE OVER PARTS OF
SWRN TX AND SERN NM.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PARTS OF SRN/ERN NM / TX S PLAINS
AND MUCH OF SWRN TX...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / MODERATE-SEVERE DROUGHT
DESPITE CONTINUED MODEL VARIABILITY OF UPPER SYSTEM SPEED/INTENSITY
ACROSS THE S-CNTRL U.S. DURING THE D2 PERIOD...INCREASED CONSISTENCY
OF MODELS HAS FOSTERED GROWING CONFIDENCE IN CRITICAL CONDITIONS
OVER THE REGION. ECMWF/GFS MODEL DATA CONTINUE TO FAVOR MORE
PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION THAN NAM/ETAKF MODELS. WITH THAT SAID...SLIGHT
TIMING DIFFERENCES ELUDE TO SEVERAL POSSIBILITIES IN THE AREAL
COVERAGE OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS.
DESPITE ABOVE MENTIONED CONCERNS...MODESTLY STRONG MID-LEVEL WINDS
/25-35 KTS AT 700 MB/ WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION. EARLY MORNING
GPS-PRECIPITABLE WATER DATA SHOW A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE /AOB
0.15 INCH/. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW LITTLE IF ANY MODIFICATION OF
MOISTURE VALUES--COUPLED WITH EXPECTED HIGHS IN THE 70S WILL RESULT
IN A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER FAVORING MIN RH VALUES WELL INTO
THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. LATEST SREF ENSEMBLE OUTPUT DISPLAY
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 35
MPH...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN /LOCALLY
HIGHER/. ERN EXTENT OF CRITICAL AREA IS PARTLY A FUNCTION OF THE
DRYLINE/WWD MOISTURE RETURN EDGE BEFORE DEVELOPING SURFACE
CYCLONE/BOUNDARY MOVE E.
..SMITH.. 03/24/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...