Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 240842
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0342 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009
   
   VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE FL PENINSULA...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   HIGHLY AMPLIFIED BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER A
   LARGE PART OF THE CONUS AS DEPARTING DEEP OCCLUDED CYCLONE MOVES
   FROM THE N-CNTRL PLAINS NEWD TO THE UPPER MIDWEST.  FURTHER W OVER
   THE NWRN PART OF THE GREAT BASIN...EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY
   SHOWS A WEAK IMPULSE MOVING RAPIDLY SEWD AND THIS FEATURE WILL BE
   OVER NM BY 12Z/25.  AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EWD INTO
   THE MS RIVER VALLEY BUT AS THE SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS MOVES
   NEWD...THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER TX AND EXTEND WWD INTO THE SRN HIGH
   PLAINS AS LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT IMPULSE.  GUSTY
   WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL CONUS SUPPORTING ENHANCED
   FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS INVOF THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.  FURTHER
   E...UPPER RIDGING WILL OCCUR OVER PARTS OF THE ERN STATES WITH A
   SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING SWD ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. 
   GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH ARE PROBABLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE FL
   PENINSULA...WARRANTING A CRITICAL DESIGNATION.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PARTS OF THE FL PENINSULA...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: MODERATELY STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / EXTREMELY
   HIGH KBDI
   
   ...PARTS OF THE FL PENINSULA...
   HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION AS AFTN HIGH
   TEMPS WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LOW
   LEVEL LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING...AIDING BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. 
   RELATIVELY DRY AIR /SINCE PARTIALLY MODIFIED FROM PREVIOUS FRONTAL
   INTRUSION INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC/ WILL COMBINE WITH STRONG SURFACE
   HEATING--YIELDING MIN RH VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 30-35 PERCENT RANGE
   WITH UPPER 20S POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS.  
   OF PERHAPS GREATER CONCERN IS STRENGTH OF ELY WINDS EXPECTED. 
   00Z/24 AREA RAOBS OVER CNTRL/SRN FL DEPICTED MODESTLY STRONG 975-900
   MB FLOW /15-20 KTS/.  LATEST DETERMINISTIC MODELS SUGGEST RELATIVELY
   STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL PERSIST MAINLY OVER PARTS OF
   CNTRL/SRN FL PENINSULA.  THIS WILL RESULT IN SUSTAINED ELY WINDS
   AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH LIKELY AT TIMES.
   
   ...SWRN KS/NWRN OK/NERN TX PANHANDLE...
   STRONG SUSTAINED NWLY WINDS /20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS
   APPROACHING 40 MPH/ WILL LIKELY OCCUR TUESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE
   CNTRL PLAINS IN WAKE OF DEPARTING SYSTEM.  WITH RELATIVELY COOL HIGH
   TEMPS ONLY FORECAST IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60...MIN RH IS ONLY EXPECTED
   TO FALL INTO THE 20S DURING PEAK HEATING.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
   LARGE AGREEMENT THAT BELT OF STRONGEST SUSTAINED WINDS WILL PROBABLY
   BE LOCATED OVER CNTRL/ERN KS WHEREAS LOWER RH WILL LIKELY BE LOCATED
   FARTHER SW OVER PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE /15-20 PERCENT/.  SOME
   OVERLAP OF STRONGER WINDS /20 MPH AND HIGHER GUSTS / AND MODESTLY
   LOW RH /LOWER 20S/ APPEARS POSSIBLE.  HOWEVER...DESPITE THESE
   EXPECTED BORDERLINE CRITICAL CONDITIONS...SHORT DURATION AND
   RELATIVELY COOL TEMPS PRECLUDE A CRITICAL DESIGNATION.
   
   ..SMITH.. 03/24/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 240958
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0458 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009
   
   VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SRN/ERN NM / TX S PLAINS
   AND MUCH OF SWRN TX...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER DISTURBANCE ROUNDING BASE OF LARGER SCALE TROUGH
   CENTERED OVER THE CNTRL CONUS WILL EJECT EWD FROM NM TO THE MID MS
   RIVER VALLEY.  A WEAK LEE SIDE LOW INVOF NERN NM AND LEE TROUGH WILL
   EXTEND SWD TOWARDS THE TX BIG BEND REGION.  FURTHER E...WWD MOISTURE
   RETURN TO THE W OF THE TX HILLCOUNTRY WILL BE THWARTED AS A SURFACE
   WAVE DEVELOPS AND MOVES EWD ALONG WAVY BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE
   ARKLATEX REGION AND MID-SOUTH.  ACCOMPANYING THE EJECTING IMPULSE
   OVER THE SRN ROCKIES/PLAINS WILL BE MODERATELY STRONG LOW TO
   MID-LEVEL FLOW.  AN ANTECEDENTLY DRY AIRMASS IS ALREADY IN PLACE
   ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS/MEXICAN PLATEAU REGION WILL COMBINE WITH
   STRONG WINDS TO FAVOR A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER EPISODE OVER PARTS OF
   SWRN TX AND SERN NM.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PARTS OF SRN/ERN NM / TX S PLAINS
   AND MUCH OF SWRN TX...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / MODERATE-SEVERE DROUGHT
   
   DESPITE CONTINUED MODEL VARIABILITY OF UPPER SYSTEM SPEED/INTENSITY
   ACROSS THE S-CNTRL U.S. DURING THE D2 PERIOD...INCREASED CONSISTENCY
   OF MODELS HAS FOSTERED GROWING CONFIDENCE IN CRITICAL CONDITIONS
   OVER THE REGION.  ECMWF/GFS MODEL DATA CONTINUE TO FAVOR MORE
   PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION THAN NAM/ETAKF MODELS.  WITH THAT SAID...SLIGHT
   TIMING DIFFERENCES ELUDE TO SEVERAL POSSIBILITIES IN THE AREAL
   COVERAGE OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS.
   DESPITE ABOVE MENTIONED CONCERNS...MODESTLY STRONG MID-LEVEL WINDS
   /25-35 KTS AT 700 MB/ WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION.  EARLY MORNING
   GPS-PRECIPITABLE WATER DATA SHOW A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE /AOB
   0.15 INCH/.  ALL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW LITTLE IF ANY MODIFICATION OF
   MOISTURE VALUES--COUPLED WITH EXPECTED HIGHS IN THE 70S WILL RESULT
   IN A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER FAVORING MIN RH VALUES WELL INTO
   THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS.  LATEST SREF ENSEMBLE OUTPUT DISPLAY
   SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 35
   MPH...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN /LOCALLY
   HIGHER/.  ERN EXTENT OF CRITICAL AREA IS PARTLY A FUNCTION OF THE
   DRYLINE/WWD MOISTURE RETURN EDGE BEFORE DEVELOPING SURFACE
   CYCLONE/BOUNDARY MOVE E.
   
   ..SMITH.. 03/24/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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