Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

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   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 250831
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0331 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2009
   
   VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN/ERN NM / TX S PLAINS AND MUCH
   OF SWRN TX...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP OCCLUDING SYSTEM OVER THE
   UPPER MIDWEST MOVING NEWD ON ERN PERIPHERY OF LARGE-SCALE UPPER
   TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE CNTRL CONUS.  NEXT DISTURBANCE OVER NM IS
   ROUNDING BASE OF LARGER SCALE TROUGH WILL PHASE WITH SONORA UPPER
   WAVE--AND EJECT EWD TO THE MID SOUTH.  A LEE SIDE LOW WILL DEVELOP
   ON WWD EXTENSION OF STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY INVOF SERN CO IN
   RESPONSE TO STRONGER UPSTREAM SPEED MAX NOSING ITS WAY INTO THE
   GREAT BASIN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  SLOSHING WWD MOISTURE RETURN
   TO ERN PART OF TX TRANSPECOS WILL BE THWARTED AS A WEAK SURFACE WAVE
   DEVELOPS AND MOVES EWD ALONG FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION
   AND MID-SOUTH.  AREAS FARTHER W /PARTS OF SWRN-W TX AND SRN-ERN NM/
   WILL BE LOCATED IN DRIER AIR AND WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE CRITICAL
   FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTN/EARLY EVENING.
   ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY EXIST AGAIN OVER PARTS OF THE FL
   PENINSULA AS LOW RH DEVELOPS AROUND PEAK HEATING.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SRN/ERN NM / TX S PLAINS AND MUCH OF
   SWRN TX...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: MODERATELY STRONG WINDS / LOW RH /
   MODERATE-SEVERE DROUGHT
   
   OBSERVED 00Z/25 EPZ RAOB /PW LESS THAN 0.10 INCH/ IS CHARACTERISTIC
   OF ANTECEDENTLY DRY AIRMASS IN THE SRN HIGH PLAINS/MEXICAN PLATEAU
   REGION.  MODESTLY STRONG MID-LEVEL WINDS /25-30 KTS AT 700 MB/ WILL
   OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN LIEU OF RAPID EWD MOVING DISTURBANCE. 
   MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO INDICATE A VERY STEEP LAPSE RATE
   ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR DEEP MIXING.  THIS WILL FAVOR VERY LOW RH
   VALUES /SINGLE DIGITS/ TO BE COMMON OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE
   CRITICAL AREA.  LATEST DETERMINISTIC SUITE/SREF ENSEMBLE OUTPUT
   CONSENSUS INDICATE THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR MODERATELY STRONG
   SUSTAINED WINDS /20-25 MPH/ WILL GENERALLY BE IN A CORRIDOR FROM NM
   ERN PLAINS/WRN TX PANHANDLE SWD INTO SRN NM AND PARTS OF FAR W AND
   SWRN TX.  GUSTY WINDS AND LOW TO VERY LOW RH WILL BE PREVALENT
   THROUGHOUT THE REGION...WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 35 MPH IN
   AREAS...ESPECIALLY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN.  ERN EXTENT OF CRITICAL
   AREA IS PARTLY A DELINEATION OF THE DRYLINE/WWD MOISTURE RETURN
   GRADIENT.
   
   ...PARTS OF THE FL PENINSULA...
   MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST RH MAY AGAIN FALL INTO THE 30-35
   PERCENT RANGE AROUND PEAK HEATING.  LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES
   IN STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL FLOW--HAVING AN IMPACT ON STRENGTH OF
   SURFACE SUSTAINED WINDS.  ATTM...IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST SUSTAINED
   WINDS/GUSTS MAY BE LOCATED GENERALLY OVER ERN PARTS OF THE PENINSULA
   AND SOMEWHAT REMOVED FROM THE LOWEST RH /WRN PORTIONS OF THE
   PENINSULA/.  NONETHELESS...LOCALIZED AREAS MAY POSSIBLY EXPERIENCE
   INTERMITTENT CRITICAL CONDITIONS /SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 MPH AND
   LOW RH/.
   
   ..SMITH.. 03/25/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 250959
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0459 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2009
   
   VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SERN AZ / SRN HALF NM / LARGE PART
   OF WRN-SWRN TX...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   STRONG EQUATOR-WARD SPEED MAX OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE RAPIDLY
   SEWD ON BACKSIDE OF LARGE SCALE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE HIGH
   PLAINS.  ACCOMPANYING INTENSE UPPER DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO
   OVERSPREAD AZ/NM BY 00Z/27.  INCREASING FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THESE
   FEATURES OVER THE SWRN DESERTS EWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL BE
   CONDUCIVE FOR STRONG SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS.  AT THE SURFACE...A
   DEEPENING LOW WILL INTERSECT RESIDUAL NWD RETREATING FRONTAL
   BOUNDARY INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS INVOF ERN NM/W TX AND MOVE EWD
   QUICKLY AS ARCTIC COLD FRONT SPILLS SWD OVER THE HIGH PLAINS/SRN
   ROCKIES REGION.  VERY DRY AIRMASS SAMPLED BY 00Z/25 AREA RAOBS WILL
   REMAIN OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED REGION AND COMBINE WITH THE STRONG
   WINDS TO CREATE AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SERN AZ / SRN HALF NM / LARGE PART
   OF WRN-SWRN TX...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: VERY STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / MODERATE-SEVERE
   DROUGHT
   
   POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A HIGHER-END CRITICAL CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS
   OF THE DELINEATED AREA /FAR W-SWRN TX EXTENDING AS FAR W AS PERHAPS
   SERN AZ/.  STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW /40-50 KTS/ WILL OVERSPREAD REGION
   DURING PEAK HEATING AHEAD OF ARCTIC BOUNDARY SURGING SWD ACROSS
   REGION.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGH 600
   MB...SUGGESTIVE OF VERY DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER CIRCULATIONS
   BEHIND THE DRYLINE AND AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  MODEL CONSENSUS
   IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT IN INDICATING LOW TO VERY LOW RH THROUGHOUT
   THE REGION AS TEMPS WARM INTO THE 70S/80S OVER MOST OF THE AREA.  RH
   IS ANTICIPATED TO BE IN THE 4-8 PERCENT RANGE OVER PARTS OF SWRN
   TX/SRN NM AND PERHAPS EXTENDING EWD INTO THERMAL AXIS PROTRUDING
   NEWD TOWARDS THE TX BIG COUNTRY.  SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES IN THE
   UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.  SUSTAINED
   SURFACE WINDS /20-30 MPH/ WILL BE COMMON OVER THE AREA...WITH WINDS
   POSSIBLY REACHING THE 30-40 MPH RANGE OVER PARTS OF FAR WEST TX/SRN
   NM.  WIND GUSTS AOA 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN ELEVATED TERRAIN AND
   LOCALIZED AREAS.  THE APPROXIMATE ERN/NRN EXTENT OF CRITICAL
   CONDITIONS APPEARS TO BE BEHIND DRYLINE OVER PARTS OF N-CNTRL TX
   LOCATED WITHIN THERMAL AXIS/SWLY VEERED SURFACE FLOW...AND THE
   GENERALLY W-E ORIENTED SWD MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  AS FRONTAL
   BOUNDARY PASSES...WINDS WILL VEER TO NLY WITH QUICK RH RECOVERY.  IF
   CONFIDENCE IS MAINTAINED WITH NEXT OUTLOOK UPDATE...AN UPGRADE TO
   EXTREMELY CRITICAL MAY BE REQUIRED WHERE EXCESSIVE WINDS/VERY LOW RH
   ARE FORECAST.
   
   ..SMITH.. 03/25/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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