Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 260846
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0346 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2009
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EXTREME SERN AZ / PARTS
OF EXTREME SRN NM AND FAR W TX...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WRN-SRN AZ / SRN-SERN NM / LARGE
PART OF SWRN-WRN TX...
...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG EQUATOR-WARD SPEED MAX SAMPLED BY 00Z/26 BOI RAOB /110 KTS AT
450 MB/ WILL MOVE RAPIDLY SEWD ON BACKSIDE OF LARGE SCALE TROUGH
CENTERED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. ACCOMPANYING INTENSE UPPER
DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD AZ/NM BY THIS EVENING.
INCREASING FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES OVER THE SWRN DESERTS
EWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR STRONG SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS. AT THE SURFACE...A DEEPENING LOW WILL INTERSECT
RESIDUAL STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS INVOF
ERN NM/W TX AND MOVE SEWD QUICKLY AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
CONSOLIDATES WITH STATIONARY FRONT AND SPILLS SWD OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS/SRN ROCKIES REGION. FARTHER W...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SWD
OVER THE GREAT BASIN/SWRN STATES. 00Z/26 SWRN U.S. AREA RAOBS
INDICATE A VERY DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS /PWATS 0.05-0.10 INCH/. THE
VERY LOW RH AND VERY STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN EXTREMELY CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER PARTS OF THE SWRN U.S. WITHIN A LARGER
AREA OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - EXTREME SERN AZ / PARTS OF
EXTREME SRN NM AND FAR W TX...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: VERY STRONG WINDS / VERY LOW RH / MODERATE
DROUGHT
LATEST DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO INDICATE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VERY FAVORABLE/SUPPORTIVE FOR RAPID
FIRE SPREAD AS VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH IMPINGES UPON THE DESERT SW /
SRN HIGH PLAINS. STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW /40-50 KTS 700 MB/ WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA DURING PEAK HEATING AND LEAD TO VERY STRONG
SUSTAINED WSWLY SURFACE WINDS /30-40 MPH/ WITH GUSTS UP TO 55
MPH...ESPECIALLY IN TERRAIN FAVORED LOCALES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGH 600 MB...SUGGESTIVE OF VERY
DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS--FAVORABLE FOR MIN RH TO FALL INTO THE
4-8 PERCENT RANGE AS TEMPS WARM INTO THE 70S F.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - WRN-SRN AZ / SRN-SERN NM / LARGE
PART OF SWRN-WRN TX...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / RECENT DRYNESS - SEVERE
DROUGHT
BEHIND THE DRYLINE AND AHEAD OF SWD SURGING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...A
LARGE AREA OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER SUPPORTIVE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. LOW TO VERY LOW RH/S WILL BE PREVALENT THROUGHOUT THE
REGION WITH THE MOST EXTREME VALUES /4-8 PERCENT/ ANTICIPATED TO BE
IN SWRN TX NEWD TOWARDS TX BIG COUNTRY WHERE SURFACE TEMP/DEWPOINT
SPREADS WILL BE AT LEAST 70 DEGREES WITHIN THERMAL AXIS. ELSEWHERE
RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS. THE
APPROXIMATE ERN/NRN EXTENT OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS APPEARS TO BE
BEHIND DRYLINE OVER PARTS OF N-CNTRL TX LOCATED WITHIN THERMAL
AXIS/SWLY VEERED SURFACE FLOW...AND THE GENERALLY W-E ORIENTED SWD
MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES...WINDS WILL
VEER TO NLY AND QUICK RH RECOVERY WILL EXIST WITH PASSAGE OF ARCTIC
FRONT.
...PARTS OF THE FL PENINSULA...
LATEST NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE RH MAY FALL INTO THE LOWER
30S/PERHAPS UPPER 20S OVER INTERIOR AREAS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATED TO THE E OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC...GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES
APPROACHING 20 MPH MAY OCCUR AS PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES IN
RESPONSE TO DEEPENING SYSTEM TO THE WEST OVER THE PLAINS. LOCALIZED
AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE FLEETING CRITICAL CONDITIONS BUT EXPECTED
INTERMITTENT DURATION OF STRONGER SUSTAINED WINDS PRECLUDES AN
OUTLOOK AREA.
..SMITH.. 03/26/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 260955
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0455 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2009
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE TX RIO GRANDE VALLEY
/ S-CNTRL TX...
...SYNOPSIS...
AS LARGE SCALE TROUGH PIVOTS EWD OVER THE PLAINS...INTENSE UPPER
LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND MOVE EWD FROM THE
SRN HIGH PLAINS TOWARDS ARKANSAS. SEASONABLY COLD TEMPS WILL
INFILTRATE THE SRN PLAINS BEHIND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT AS DEEPENING
SURFACE CYCLONE MOVES NEWD TOWARDS THE MS/OH RIVER CONFLUENCE. MILD
TEMPS AHEAD AND JUST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT OVER PARTS OF TX WILL
COMBINE WITH ANTECEDENTLY DRY AIRMASS ADVECTING FROM THE W...AND
RESULT IN LOW MIN RH OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND PARTS OF S-CNTRL
TX.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PARTS OF THE TX RIO GRANDE VALLEY /
S-CNTRL TX...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / EXTREME DROUGHT
LATEST ENSEMBLE OUTPUT CONTINUES TO INDICATE STRONG WINDS IN
POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN PLAINS AS SURFACE
CYCLONE INTENSIFIES AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. SUSTAINED
WINDS 20-30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 35-45
MPH...ESPECIALLY OVER NRN PORTION OF AREA WHERE STRONGER PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL PROBABLY RESIDE. WITH MAX TEMPS WARMING INTO THE
70S-80S /LARGE TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS/...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND AID IN SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING.
MIN RH IS ANTICIPATED TO DECREASE INTO THE TEENS /SRN LOCALES/ AND
20S /NRN LOCALES/ DURING PEAK HEATING OVER THE HIGHLIGHTED REGION.
AREAL ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED IF/ONCE BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS
BECOMES EVIDENT.
..SMITH.. 03/26/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...