Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 260846
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0346 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2009
   
   VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
   
   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EXTREME SERN AZ / PARTS
   OF EXTREME SRN NM AND FAR W TX...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WRN-SRN AZ / SRN-SERN NM / LARGE
   PART OF SWRN-WRN TX...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   STRONG EQUATOR-WARD SPEED MAX SAMPLED BY 00Z/26 BOI RAOB /110 KTS AT
   450 MB/ WILL MOVE RAPIDLY SEWD ON BACKSIDE OF LARGE SCALE TROUGH
   CENTERED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.  ACCOMPANYING INTENSE UPPER
   DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD AZ/NM BY THIS EVENING.
   INCREASING FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES OVER THE SWRN DESERTS
   EWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR STRONG SUSTAINED
   SURFACE WINDS.  AT THE SURFACE...A DEEPENING LOW WILL INTERSECT
   RESIDUAL STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS INVOF
   ERN NM/W TX AND MOVE SEWD QUICKLY AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
   CONSOLIDATES WITH STATIONARY FRONT AND SPILLS SWD OVER THE HIGH
   PLAINS/SRN ROCKIES REGION.  FARTHER W...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SWD
   OVER THE GREAT BASIN/SWRN STATES.  00Z/26 SWRN U.S. AREA RAOBS
   INDICATE A VERY DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS /PWATS 0.05-0.10 INCH/.  THE
   VERY LOW RH AND VERY STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN EXTREMELY CRITICAL
   FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER PARTS OF THE SWRN U.S. WITHIN A LARGER
   AREA OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
   
   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - EXTREME SERN AZ / PARTS OF
   EXTREME SRN NM AND FAR W TX...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: VERY STRONG WINDS / VERY LOW RH / MODERATE
   DROUGHT
   
   LATEST DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO INDICATE
   WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VERY FAVORABLE/SUPPORTIVE FOR RAPID
   FIRE SPREAD AS VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH IMPINGES UPON THE DESERT SW /
   SRN HIGH PLAINS.  STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW /40-50 KTS 700 MB/ WILL
   OVERSPREAD THE AREA DURING PEAK HEATING AND LEAD TO VERY STRONG
   SUSTAINED WSWLY SURFACE WINDS /30-40 MPH/ WITH GUSTS UP TO 55
   MPH...ESPECIALLY IN TERRAIN FAVORED LOCALES.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   SHOW VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGH 600 MB...SUGGESTIVE OF VERY
   DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS--FAVORABLE FOR MIN RH TO FALL INTO THE
   4-8 PERCENT RANGE AS TEMPS WARM INTO THE 70S F.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - WRN-SRN AZ / SRN-SERN NM / LARGE
   PART OF SWRN-WRN TX...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / RECENT DRYNESS - SEVERE
   DROUGHT
   
   BEHIND THE DRYLINE AND AHEAD OF SWD SURGING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...A
   LARGE AREA OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER SUPPORTIVE CONDITIONS ARE
   EXPECTED.  LOW TO VERY LOW RH/S WILL BE PREVALENT THROUGHOUT THE
   REGION WITH THE MOST EXTREME VALUES /4-8 PERCENT/ ANTICIPATED TO BE
   IN SWRN TX NEWD TOWARDS TX BIG COUNTRY WHERE SURFACE TEMP/DEWPOINT
   SPREADS WILL BE AT LEAST 70 DEGREES WITHIN THERMAL AXIS.  ELSEWHERE
   RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS.  THE
   APPROXIMATE ERN/NRN EXTENT OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS APPEARS TO BE
   BEHIND DRYLINE OVER PARTS OF N-CNTRL TX LOCATED WITHIN THERMAL
   AXIS/SWLY VEERED SURFACE FLOW...AND THE GENERALLY W-E ORIENTED SWD
   MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES...WINDS WILL
   VEER TO NLY AND QUICK RH RECOVERY WILL EXIST WITH PASSAGE OF ARCTIC
   FRONT.
   
   ...PARTS OF THE FL PENINSULA...
   LATEST NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE RH MAY FALL INTO THE LOWER
   30S/PERHAPS UPPER 20S OVER INTERIOR AREAS.  WITH HIGH PRESSURE
   LOCATED TO THE E OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC...GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES
   APPROACHING 20 MPH MAY OCCUR AS PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES IN
   RESPONSE TO DEEPENING SYSTEM TO THE WEST OVER THE PLAINS.  LOCALIZED
   AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE FLEETING CRITICAL CONDITIONS BUT EXPECTED
   INTERMITTENT DURATION OF STRONGER SUSTAINED WINDS PRECLUDES AN
   OUTLOOK AREA.
   
   ..SMITH.. 03/26/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 260955
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0455 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2009
   
   VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE TX RIO GRANDE VALLEY
   / S-CNTRL TX...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AS LARGE SCALE TROUGH PIVOTS EWD OVER THE PLAINS...INTENSE UPPER
   LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND MOVE EWD FROM THE
   SRN HIGH PLAINS TOWARDS ARKANSAS.  SEASONABLY COLD TEMPS WILL
   INFILTRATE THE SRN PLAINS BEHIND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT AS DEEPENING
   SURFACE CYCLONE MOVES NEWD TOWARDS THE MS/OH RIVER CONFLUENCE.  MILD
   TEMPS AHEAD AND JUST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT OVER PARTS OF TX WILL
   COMBINE WITH ANTECEDENTLY DRY AIRMASS ADVECTING FROM THE W...AND
   RESULT IN LOW MIN RH OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND PARTS OF S-CNTRL
   TX.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PARTS OF THE TX RIO GRANDE VALLEY /
   S-CNTRL TX...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / EXTREME DROUGHT
   
   LATEST ENSEMBLE OUTPUT CONTINUES TO INDICATE STRONG WINDS IN
   POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN PLAINS AS SURFACE
   CYCLONE INTENSIFIES AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES.  SUSTAINED
   WINDS 20-30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 35-45
   MPH...ESPECIALLY OVER NRN PORTION OF AREA WHERE STRONGER PRESSURE
   GRADIENT WILL PROBABLY RESIDE.  WITH MAX TEMPS WARMING INTO THE
   70S-80S /LARGE TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS/...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND AID IN SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. 
   MIN RH IS ANTICIPATED TO DECREASE INTO THE TEENS /SRN LOCALES/ AND
   20S /NRN LOCALES/ DURING PEAK HEATING OVER THE HIGHLIGHTED REGION. 
   AREAL ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED IF/ONCE BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS
   BECOMES EVIDENT.
   
   ..SMITH.. 03/26/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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