Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

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   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 280801
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0301 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2009
   
   VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL CYCLONE WILL
   MOVE FROM THE SRN PLAINS AND INTO THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES
   REGION DURING THE D1 FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL CAUSE A COLD FRONT
   TO SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE SERN CONUS WHERE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY. OVER THE PLAINS...COOLER
   TEMPERATURES AND DECREASING WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED AS SURFACE HIGH
   PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE REGION. SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
   SURFACE HIGH...WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LOW RH VALUES WILL DEVELOP
   DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TX WWD INTO THE
   DESERT SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE
   LIGHT...AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
   
   ..GARNER.. 03/28/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 280803
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0303 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2009
   
   VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR W TX...SRN NM...SERN AZ...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NRN AZ...NWRN NM...EXTREME SRN
   UT...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ON D2 WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A
   DEPARTING TROUGH OVER THE NERN STATES...WHILE A SECOND TROUGH DROPS
   SOUTH OUT OF THE PAC NW AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN. SURFACE LOW
   PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE WRN
   TROUGH...BECOMING POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY LATE
   SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A TROUGH AXIS WILL EXTEND SOUTH FROM THE LOW INTO
   THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...WHILE A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
   SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND TOWARD THE DESERT SW. MID LEVEL
   WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE DESERT SW...WHILE
   WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW RH VALUES DEVELOP DURING THE
   AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN A LARGE AREA OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - FAR W TX...SRN NM...SERN AZ...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS...LOW RH...MODERATE DROUGHT
   
   A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE ERN PLAINS OF
   NM BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING UPR LEVEL
   WESTERLY FLOW AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER NERN CO. LOW DEWPOINTS
   ALREADY EXIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA...WITH LITTLE
   MODIFICATION EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS THE UPR TROUGH
   APPROACHES THE GREAT BASIN DURING SUN AFTERNOON...AN ENVIRONMENT
   FAVORABLE FOR DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL PROMOTE THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF WARM TEMPERATURES AND RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE
   SINGLE DIGITS. AS LOW LEVEL FLOW RESPONDS TO THE DEVELOPING SURFACE
   LOW...AND MOMENTUM MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25
   MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...FAVORING
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - NRN AZ...NWRN NM...EXTREME SRN UT...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS...LOW RH...ABNORMALLY DRY
   CONDITIONS
   
   MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SRN UT/NRN
   AZ DURING MID TO LATE SUN AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...AN 80-100 KT MID
   LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL APPROACH THE UT/AZ BORDER...WHICH COULD
   POTENTIALLY RESULT IN WINDS GUSTING AOA 50 MPH AS A DEEPLY MIXED
   BOUNDARY LAYER DEVELOPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
   EXPECTED TO EASILY EXCEED CRITICAL THRESHOLDS...WHILE RH VALUES FALL
   THROUGH THE TEENS. THE DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE
   FURTHER ENHANCED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS
   SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHIFT TO NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WITH THE PASSING
   COLD FRONT. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD ALSO MATERIALIZE
   SOUTH OF THE CURRENT OUTLOOK AREA...BUT WILL NOT BE INCLUDED IN THIS
   FORECAST DUE TO PRECIPITATION RESIDING CLOSER TO NORMAL. 
   
   DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY STRONG SUSTAINED WINDS AND
   GUSTS...THIS AREA WILL BE RE-EVALUATED FOR AN EXTREME FIRE WEATHER
   AREA DURING THE NEXT FORECAST ISSUANCE.
   
   ...NRN FL AND SERN STATES...
   AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT NEWD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND/MID ATLANTIC
   STATES...WHILE AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE BY
   MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 15 MPH...WITH GUSTS AOA
   25 MPH ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT OVER THE ERN
   CAROLINAS SWWD INTO GA AND NRN FL. IN ADDITION...EARLY TO MID
   AFTERNOON RH VALUES MAY FALL INTO THE 30S AS A DRIER CONTINENTAL
   AIRMASS ADVECTS E INTO THE REGION. THESE CONDITIONS MAY SUPPORT AN
   ELEVATED RISK FOR WILDFIRES.
   
   ..GARNER.. 03/28/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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