Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 290827
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0327 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2009
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF WRN INTO FAR W
TX...SRN AND WRN NM...ERN AND NRN AZ...PART OF SRN NV...AND EXTREME
SRN UT...
...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FROM W
TX WWD INTO PORTIONS OF THE DESERT SW AND GREAT BASIN ON SUNDAY. AN
UPR LEVEL TROUGH...INITIALLY POSITIONED OVER THE PAC NW...WILL DIG
SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD FROM A
SURFACE LOW ENTERING THE CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS. AN 80+ KT MID
LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...SPREADING ACROSS
THE AZ/UT BORDER BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO VERY STRONG
SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS OVER NRN AZ AND SRN UT...AND WILL COMBINE
WITH A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER LEADING TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. FARTHER S AND E...SLIGHTLY WEAKER MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
PRESENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH...BUT LOW LEVEL FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO RESPOND TO THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE
PLAINS...WITH CRITICAL CONDITIONS FAVORED AS THE SURFACE AIRMASS
WARMS AND DRYS.
OVER THE ERN CONUS...AN UPR TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL DRIVE A SURFACE COLD FRONT
OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC BY EARLY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A
RAPIDLY DRYING LOW LEVEL AIRMASS.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PORTIONS OF WRN INTO FAR W TX...SRN
AND WRN NM...ERN AND NRN AZ...PART OF SRN NV...AND EXTREME SRN UT...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS...LOW RH...ABNORMALLY DRY TO
EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS
STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS SRN UT/NRN AZ
DURING THE AFTERNOON...ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL LEAD TO VERY STRONG SUSTAINED
WINDS AOA 30 MPH...WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 60 MPH. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT SURFACE RH VALUES WILL RESIDE AROUND 15 PERCENT AS
THE WINDS INCREASE...WHICH WILL SUPPORT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. AN EXTREME OUTLOOK AREA ALONG THE AZ/UT BORDER WOULD
HAVE BEEN ASSIGNED IF THE AIRMASS WERE FORECAST TO BE DRIER...BUT
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS WILL NOT BE THE CASE.
HOWEVER...EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR MAY BE OBSERVED WITH THE PASSING
COLD FRONT...AS STRONG WINDS SHIFT FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD CENTRAL AZ...AND THEN EWD INTO SRN NM AND FAR W
TX...SUSTAINED WINDS WILL INCREASE TO VALUES AOA 20 MPH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS. IN ADDITION...STRONGER SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE OVER FAVORED/HIGHER TERRAIN AS MID LEVEL FLOW INCREASES
TO 30-40 KT. AS THE SURFACE AIRMASS WARMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...A
WELL MIXED BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP...FAVORING LOW RH VALUES
/SINGLE DIGITS/ AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
PORTIONS OF WRN TX ARE FORECAST TO RESIDE E OF A LEE TROUGH
POSITIONED NEAR THE NM/TX BORDER. HOWEVER...S-SW SURFACE WINDS
SHOULD RESPOND TO THE EMERGING SURFACE LOW LOCATED FARTHER
NORTH...WITH SUSTAINED VALUES AOA 20 MPH COMBINED WITH RH FALLING
THROUGH THE TEENS. ALTHOUGH THE THREAT APPEARS SOMEWHAT MORE
MARGINAL COMPARED TO LOCATIONS FARTHER W...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE MET DURING SOME PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON.
...SERN STATES...
AS THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS DRIES THROUGH THE DAY BEHIND A DEPARTING
COLD FRONT...RH VALUES WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE 30S. SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE BREEZY /AOA 20 MPH WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY
EXCEEDING 35 MPH/. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE ENHANCED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS...THOUGH RECENT RAINFALL WILL MITIGATE THE THREAT
SOMEWHAT.
..GARNER.. 03/29/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 290828
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0328 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2009
VALID 301200Z - 311200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WRN INTO FAR W TX...SRN
NM...EXTREME SERN AZ...
...SYNOPSIS...
A CLOSED UPR LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS DURING
THE D2 FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A UPR TROUGH AXIS TRAILING SWWD INTO
THE DESERT SW. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO EJECT NEWD THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WHILE A COLD FRONT PLUNGES SOUTH INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXTEND SWD FROM THE
PRIMARY LOW PRESSURE CENTER TOWARD THE TX/OK BORDER...WHERE A
SECONDARY LOW MAY FORM. A DRYLINE WILL EXTEND SOUTH OF THE OK/TX
LOW...WHILE A COLD FRONT LOCATED TO ITS W DRIFTS S ACROSS AZ/NM
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A WARM/DRY AIRMASS WILL BE BOUNDED ALONG AND
S OF THE COLD FRONT AND W OF THE DRYLINE...AND WILL COMBINE WITH
STRONG/GUSTY WINDS RESULTING IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
FARTHER EAST...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BECOME SITUATED
INVOF FL AND THE SERN STATES...FAVORING LOW HUMIDITY VALUES.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - WRN INTO FAR W TX...SRN NM...EXTREME
SERN AZ...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS...LOW RH...MODERATE TO EXTREME
DROUGHT
VERY MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SRN NM AND WRN TX ON MON/D2. GIVEN THE PRE-EXISTING DRY SURFACE
AIRMASS...RH VALUES WILL LIKELY FALL THROUGH THE TEENS. THE
PROGRESSIVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS WILL FAVOR SUSTAINED
WINDS AOA 20-25 MPH...WHILE A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER COMBINED
WITH 40-60 KT MID LEVEL FLOW MAY YIELD GUSTS UP TO 30-40 MPH. THESE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST DURING MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH LEADS TO
RECOVERING RH VALUES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BY EVENING.
...FL/SERN STATES...
RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE 30S...AND PERHAPS EVEN THE
UPPER 20S AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES EWD ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER...WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH NEGLIGIBLE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL PRECLUDE THE OCCURRENCE OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
..GARNER.. 03/29/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...