Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 290827
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0327 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2009
   
   VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF WRN INTO FAR W
   TX...SRN AND WRN NM...ERN AND NRN AZ...PART OF SRN NV...AND EXTREME
   SRN UT...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A LARGE AREA OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FROM W
   TX WWD INTO PORTIONS OF THE DESERT SW AND GREAT BASIN ON SUNDAY. AN
   UPR LEVEL TROUGH...INITIALLY POSITIONED OVER THE PAC NW...WILL DIG
   SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
   DAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD FROM A
   SURFACE LOW ENTERING THE CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS. AN 80+ KT MID
   LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...SPREADING ACROSS
   THE AZ/UT BORDER BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO VERY STRONG
   SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS OVER NRN AZ AND SRN UT...AND WILL COMBINE
   WITH A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER LEADING TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS. FARTHER S AND E...SLIGHTLY WEAKER MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
   PRESENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH...BUT LOW LEVEL FLOW IS
   EXPECTED TO RESPOND TO THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE
   PLAINS...WITH CRITICAL CONDITIONS FAVORED AS THE SURFACE AIRMASS
   WARMS AND DRYS.
   
   OVER THE ERN CONUS...AN UPR TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
   REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL DRIVE A SURFACE COLD FRONT
   OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC BY EARLY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A
   RAPIDLY DRYING LOW LEVEL AIRMASS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PORTIONS OF WRN INTO FAR W TX...SRN
   AND WRN NM...ERN AND NRN AZ...PART OF SRN NV...AND EXTREME SRN UT...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS...LOW RH...ABNORMALLY DRY TO
   EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS
   
   STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS SRN UT/NRN AZ
   DURING THE AFTERNOON...ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE COLD FRONT
   APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL LEAD TO VERY STRONG SUSTAINED
   WINDS AOA 30 MPH...WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 60 MPH. MODEL GUIDANCE
   INDICATES THAT SURFACE RH VALUES WILL RESIDE AROUND 15 PERCENT AS
   THE WINDS INCREASE...WHICH WILL SUPPORT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS. AN EXTREME OUTLOOK AREA ALONG THE AZ/UT BORDER WOULD
   HAVE BEEN ASSIGNED IF THE AIRMASS WERE FORECAST TO BE DRIER...BUT
   CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS WILL NOT BE THE CASE.
   HOWEVER...EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR MAY BE OBSERVED WITH THE PASSING
   COLD FRONT...AS STRONG WINDS SHIFT FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO
   NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
   
   FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD CENTRAL AZ...AND THEN EWD INTO SRN NM AND FAR W
   TX...SUSTAINED WINDS WILL INCREASE TO VALUES AOA 20 MPH THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
   HIGH PLAINS. IN ADDITION...STRONGER SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS WILL
   BE POSSIBLE OVER FAVORED/HIGHER TERRAIN AS MID LEVEL FLOW INCREASES
   TO 30-40 KT. AS THE SURFACE AIRMASS WARMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...A
   WELL MIXED BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP...FAVORING LOW RH VALUES
   /SINGLE DIGITS/ AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
   
   PORTIONS OF WRN TX ARE FORECAST TO RESIDE E OF A LEE TROUGH
   POSITIONED NEAR THE NM/TX BORDER. HOWEVER...S-SW SURFACE WINDS
   SHOULD RESPOND TO THE EMERGING SURFACE LOW LOCATED FARTHER
   NORTH...WITH SUSTAINED VALUES AOA 20 MPH COMBINED WITH RH FALLING
   THROUGH THE TEENS. ALTHOUGH THE THREAT APPEARS SOMEWHAT MORE
   MARGINAL COMPARED TO LOCATIONS FARTHER W...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE MET DURING SOME PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON.
   
   ...SERN STATES...
   AS THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS DRIES THROUGH THE DAY BEHIND A DEPARTING
   COLD FRONT...RH VALUES WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE 30S. SUSTAINED
   WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE BREEZY /AOA 20 MPH WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY
   EXCEEDING 35 MPH/. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE ENHANCED FIRE
   WEATHER CONDITIONS...THOUGH RECENT RAINFALL WILL MITIGATE THE THREAT
   SOMEWHAT.
   
   ..GARNER.. 03/29/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 290828
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0328 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2009
   
   VALID 301200Z - 311200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WRN INTO FAR W TX...SRN
   NM...EXTREME SERN AZ...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A CLOSED UPR LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS DURING
   THE D2 FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A UPR TROUGH AXIS TRAILING SWWD INTO
   THE DESERT SW. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO EJECT NEWD THROUGH
   THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WHILE A COLD FRONT PLUNGES SOUTH INTO THE
   CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXTEND SWD FROM THE
   PRIMARY LOW PRESSURE CENTER TOWARD THE TX/OK BORDER...WHERE A
   SECONDARY LOW MAY FORM. A DRYLINE WILL EXTEND SOUTH OF THE OK/TX
   LOW...WHILE A COLD FRONT LOCATED TO ITS W DRIFTS S ACROSS AZ/NM
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A WARM/DRY AIRMASS WILL BE BOUNDED ALONG AND
   S OF THE COLD FRONT AND W OF THE DRYLINE...AND WILL COMBINE WITH
   STRONG/GUSTY WINDS RESULTING IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
   FARTHER EAST...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BECOME SITUATED
   INVOF FL AND THE SERN STATES...FAVORING LOW HUMIDITY VALUES.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - WRN INTO FAR W TX...SRN NM...EXTREME
   SERN AZ...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS...LOW RH...MODERATE TO EXTREME
   DROUGHT
   
   VERY MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   SRN NM AND WRN TX ON MON/D2. GIVEN THE PRE-EXISTING DRY SURFACE
   AIRMASS...RH VALUES WILL LIKELY FALL THROUGH THE TEENS. THE
   PROGRESSIVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS WILL FAVOR SUSTAINED
   WINDS AOA 20-25 MPH...WHILE A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER COMBINED
   WITH 40-60 KT MID LEVEL FLOW MAY YIELD GUSTS UP TO 30-40 MPH. THESE
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST DURING MUCH OF THE
   AFTERNOON...BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH LEADS TO
   RECOVERING RH VALUES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BY EVENING.
   
   ...FL/SERN STATES...
   RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE 30S...AND PERHAPS EVEN THE
   UPPER 20S AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES EWD ACROSS THE REGION.
   HOWEVER...WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH NEGLIGIBLE PRESSURE
   GRADIENT WILL PRECLUDE THE OCCURRENCE OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS.
   
   ..GARNER.. 03/29/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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