Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 300740
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0240 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2009
   
   VALID 301200Z - 311200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN/SERN NM...WRN INTO FAR W TX...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE GREAT BASIN EARLY MONDAY
   MORNING WILL DIG SEWD TOWARD THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE EWD AHEAD OF THE
   TROUGH...WITH THE PRIMARY LOW PRESSURE CENTER ENTERING ERN NEB BY
   LATE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FROM THE
   LOW...EVENTUALLY BECOMING POSITIONED OVER WRN OK SW INTO W TX AND
   SRN NM/AZ. MEANWHILE...40-70 KT MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL
   OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY...FAVORING STRONG GUSTY WINDS
   ACROSS W TX AND THE PANHANDLE...AS WELL AS NM.
   
   FARTHER EAST OVER FL AND THE SERN STATES...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
   WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE REGION AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS E-NE
   AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND...AND A MID LEVEL RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE W.
   LOW RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE SURFACE HIGH...THOUGH
   WINDS WILL BE WEAK.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SRN/SERN NM...WRN INTO FAR W TX...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: WINDS...LOW RH...MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT
   
   A WEAK SURFACE LOW MAY DEVELOP OVER WRN PORTIONS OF N CENTRAL TX BY
   MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...WITH A DRYLINE TRAILING SOUTH INTO S CENTRAL
   TX...AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING W ACROSS WRN TX INTO SRN NM/AZ. WARM
   TEMPERATURES AND LOW RH VALUES /UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW-MID
   TEENS/ ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT AND
   W OF THE DRYLINE. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE UPR LEVEL
   TROUGH AXIS WILL RESIDE OVER THE CRITICAL OUTLOOK AREA BY MID
   AFTERNOON. THUS...STRONGER LARGE SCALE ASCENT MAY BECOME POSITIONED
   E OF THE REGION BY PEAK HEATING...WHICH COULD LIMIT BOUNDARY LAYER
   MIXING AND DEPTH. HOWEVER...SREF OUTPUT STILL INDICATES A HIGH
   PROBABILITY OF CRITICAL WINDS DEVELOPING BY EARLY AFTERNOON /20-25
   MPH/...WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE /PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIGHER
   TERRAIN OF NM INTO SW-FAR W TX/...WHICH WARRANTS A CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER OUTLOOK AREA.
   
   ...TX PANHANDLE...
   RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RESIDE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 20 PERCENT
   DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS EXCEEDING 20-30
   MPH...AND GUSTS APPROACHING 50 MPH AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES
   ACROSS THE REGION. DUE TO RECENT PRECIPITATION...HIGH FUEL MOISTURE
   AND WET GROUND CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT OVER THE AREA...WHICH WILL
   PRECLUDE A CRITICAL OUTLOOK AREA.
   
   ...FL/SERN STATES...
   BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE RH VALUES
   WILL FALL TO AROUND 30-40 PERCENT /WITH SOME LOCATIONS POSSIBLY
   EXPERIENCING UPR 20S DURING PEAK HEATING/ BY THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH
   PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTS E ACROSS THE REGION. DUE TO A VERY WEAK
   SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND NEGLIGIBLE FLOW ALOFT...SUSTAINED
   WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW CRITICAL VALUES.
   
   ..GARNER.. 03/30/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 300741
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0241 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2009
   
   VALID 311200Z - 011200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN ON TUE/D2 WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN UPPER
   TROUGH LIFTING NEWD THROUGH THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE LOW
   PRESSURE ACCOMPANYING THE TROUGH WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SWD
   TRAILING COLD FRONT...WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFFSHORE OF THE TX
   GULF COAST BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. STRONG SUSTAINED WINDS W OF
   THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE DISPLACED FROM THE
   WARMER/DRIER AIRMASS POSITIONED WELL TO THE SOUTH...RESULTING IN A
   MINIMAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MARGINALLY
   CRITICAL WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH THE PASSING COLD FRONT OVER S CENTRAL
   TX...POSSIBLY INCREASING THE FIRE DANGER AS RH VALUES DIURNALLY
   LOWER.
   
   ...LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...
   AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EWD AWAY FROM THE REGION BY EARLY
   AFTERNOON...SUSTAINED WINDS MAY STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 20 MPH. DAYTIME
   HEATING COMBINED WITH DRY AIR ADVECTION EMANATING FROM WEAK SURFACE
   HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED TO THE NORTH WILL ALLOW A FEW LOCATIONS TO
   EXPERIENCE RH VALUES BELOW 20 PERCENT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF CRITICAL
   FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY MATERIALIZE AS A RESULT...BUT THE THREAT
   APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO ASSIGN AN OUTLOOK AREA AT THIS TIME.
   
   ..GARNER.. 03/30/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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