Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 300740
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0240 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2009
VALID 301200Z - 311200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN/SERN NM...WRN INTO FAR W TX...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE GREAT BASIN EARLY MONDAY
MORNING WILL DIG SEWD TOWARD THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE EWD AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...WITH THE PRIMARY LOW PRESSURE CENTER ENTERING ERN NEB BY
LATE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FROM THE
LOW...EVENTUALLY BECOMING POSITIONED OVER WRN OK SW INTO W TX AND
SRN NM/AZ. MEANWHILE...40-70 KT MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY...FAVORING STRONG GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS W TX AND THE PANHANDLE...AS WELL AS NM.
FARTHER EAST OVER FL AND THE SERN STATES...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE REGION AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS E-NE
AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND...AND A MID LEVEL RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE W.
LOW RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE SURFACE HIGH...THOUGH
WINDS WILL BE WEAK.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SRN/SERN NM...WRN INTO FAR W TX...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: WINDS...LOW RH...MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT
A WEAK SURFACE LOW MAY DEVELOP OVER WRN PORTIONS OF N CENTRAL TX BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...WITH A DRYLINE TRAILING SOUTH INTO S CENTRAL
TX...AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING W ACROSS WRN TX INTO SRN NM/AZ. WARM
TEMPERATURES AND LOW RH VALUES /UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW-MID
TEENS/ ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT AND
W OF THE DRYLINE. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE UPR LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS WILL RESIDE OVER THE CRITICAL OUTLOOK AREA BY MID
AFTERNOON. THUS...STRONGER LARGE SCALE ASCENT MAY BECOME POSITIONED
E OF THE REGION BY PEAK HEATING...WHICH COULD LIMIT BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING AND DEPTH. HOWEVER...SREF OUTPUT STILL INDICATES A HIGH
PROBABILITY OF CRITICAL WINDS DEVELOPING BY EARLY AFTERNOON /20-25
MPH/...WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE /PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NM INTO SW-FAR W TX/...WHICH WARRANTS A CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER OUTLOOK AREA.
...TX PANHANDLE...
RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RESIDE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 20 PERCENT
DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS EXCEEDING 20-30
MPH...AND GUSTS APPROACHING 50 MPH AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. DUE TO RECENT PRECIPITATION...HIGH FUEL MOISTURE
AND WET GROUND CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT OVER THE AREA...WHICH WILL
PRECLUDE A CRITICAL OUTLOOK AREA.
...FL/SERN STATES...
BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE RH VALUES
WILL FALL TO AROUND 30-40 PERCENT /WITH SOME LOCATIONS POSSIBLY
EXPERIENCING UPR 20S DURING PEAK HEATING/ BY THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTS E ACROSS THE REGION. DUE TO A VERY WEAK
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND NEGLIGIBLE FLOW ALOFT...SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW CRITICAL VALUES.
..GARNER.. 03/30/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 300741
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0241 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2009
VALID 311200Z - 011200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN ON TUE/D2 WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN UPPER
TROUGH LIFTING NEWD THROUGH THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE ACCOMPANYING THE TROUGH WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SWD
TRAILING COLD FRONT...WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFFSHORE OF THE TX
GULF COAST BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. STRONG SUSTAINED WINDS W OF
THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE DISPLACED FROM THE
WARMER/DRIER AIRMASS POSITIONED WELL TO THE SOUTH...RESULTING IN A
MINIMAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MARGINALLY
CRITICAL WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH THE PASSING COLD FRONT OVER S CENTRAL
TX...POSSIBLY INCREASING THE FIRE DANGER AS RH VALUES DIURNALLY
LOWER.
...LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EWD AWAY FROM THE REGION BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...SUSTAINED WINDS MAY STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 20 MPH. DAYTIME
HEATING COMBINED WITH DRY AIR ADVECTION EMANATING FROM WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED TO THE NORTH WILL ALLOW A FEW LOCATIONS TO
EXPERIENCE RH VALUES BELOW 20 PERCENT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY MATERIALIZE AS A RESULT...BUT THE THREAT
APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO ASSIGN AN OUTLOOK AREA AT THIS TIME.
..GARNER.. 03/30/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...