Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 310735
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0235 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2009
   
   VALID 311200Z - 011200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INITIALLY LOCATED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL
   EJECT ENEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...WHILE AN OCCLUDED SURFACE
   CYCLONE SLOWLY DRIFTS TOWARD THE UPR MS VALLEY REGION. A COLD FRONT
   EXTENDING SSW FROM THE LOW WILL EXIT THE TX GULF COAST BY EARLY
   AFTERNOON. BREEZY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT
   SHOULD SUBSIDE SHORTLY THEREAFTER. A DRY SURFACE AIRMASS WILL EXIST
   NORTH OF THE FRONT OVER MUCH OF WRN TX INTO THE DESERT SW.
   HOWEVER...WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT...AND
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   ...PORTIONS OF S CENTRAL TX AND THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...
   A RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD OF SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH WILL
   IMMEDIATELY FOLLOW THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY
   MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF S CENTRAL TX AND THE LOWER
   RIO GRANDE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM THROUGH THE 70S
   DURING THIS TIME FRAME...WHILE A DRY POST FRONTAL AIRMASS SPREADS
   SOUTH INTO THE REGION...RESULTING IN RH VALUES AOB 20 PERCENT.
   THUS...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE
   OBSERVED...BUT THE TEMPORAL THRESHOLD OF 3 HRS WILL NOT BE
   MET...PRECLUDING AN OUTLOOK AREA.
   
   ...SRN NM AND SWRN-FAR W TX...
   THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT MID LVL FLOW /CENTERED AROUND 700
   MB/ WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY LEAD TO A
   PERIOD OF SUSTAINED WINDS AOA 20 MPH /ESPECIALLY OVER FAVORED
   ELEVATED TERRAIN/. A VERY DRY AIRMASS /PWAT VALUES AROUND 0.10
   IN...AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS/ WILL
   RESULT IN RH VALUES AOB 10-15 PERCENT. HOWEVER...THE LARGE SCALE
   PATTERN APPEARS UNFAVORABLE FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
   /I.E. UPR TROUGH MOVING DOWNSTREAM AWAY FROM THE REGION...LARGE
   SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE...RESULTING IN A SHALLOW MIXED
   LAYER/...AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATES A LOW PROBABILITY OF 20+
   MPH SUSTAINED WINDS LASTING FOR 3 HRS OR MORE. THEREFORE...AN
   OUTLOOK AREA WILL NOT BE ASSIGNED.
   
   ..GARNER.. 03/31/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 310737
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0237 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2009
   
   VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WRN INTO FAR W TX...SRN
   NM...EXTREME SERN AZ...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A PROGRESSIVE MID LVL S/W TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP SEWD ACROSS THE
   GREAT BASIN INTO NM/W TX DURING THE D2 PERIOD. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
   WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF THE UPR
   WAVE...WITH LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO
   FALLING HEIGHTS/SURFACE PRESSURE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING WWD FROM
   THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE SWD ACROSS AZ/NM AND W TX DURING THE DAY.
   WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW RH ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR SOUTH OF THE COLD
   FRONT...AND WILL COMBINE WITH THE STRONG WINDS RESULTING IN CRITICAL
   FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - WRN INTO FAR W TX...SRN NM...EXTREME
   SERN AZ...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS...LOW RH...MODERATE TO SEVERE
   DROUGHT
   
   HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 70S AND POSSIBLY 80S
   OVER THE CRITICAL OUTLOOK AREA ON WED/D2...CONTRIBUTING TO A DEEPLY
   MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS. IN ADDITION...VERY LOW DEWPOINTS IN
   THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS
   THE REGION...WITH FURTHER DRYING OCCURRING AS MIXING INCREASES AND
   DOWNSLOPE FLOW STRENGTHENS. THESE FACTORS WILL RESULT IN RH VALUES
   FALLING TOWARD THE SINGLE DIGITS. AS A POTENT S/W TROUGH APPROACHES
   THE REGION BY MID AFTERNOON...MID LEVEL FLOW WILL STEADILY
   INCREASE...WHILE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FARTHER DOWNSTREAM DEEPENS.
   SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-30 MPH...WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH APPEAR
   LIKELY...FAVORING RAPID WILDFIRE SPREAD. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE
   SUPPORTS POSSIBLE EXTREME CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER SRN
   NM AND SWRN-FAR W TX...AND ONE MAY BE ASSIGNED IN THE NEXT FORECAST
   ISSUANCE IF A CONSENSUS IN MODEL OUTPUT IS REACHED.
   
   ..GARNER.. 03/31/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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