Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 310735
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0235 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2009
VALID 311200Z - 011200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INITIALLY LOCATED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL
EJECT ENEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...WHILE AN OCCLUDED SURFACE
CYCLONE SLOWLY DRIFTS TOWARD THE UPR MS VALLEY REGION. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SSW FROM THE LOW WILL EXIT THE TX GULF COAST BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. BREEZY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT
SHOULD SUBSIDE SHORTLY THEREAFTER. A DRY SURFACE AIRMASS WILL EXIST
NORTH OF THE FRONT OVER MUCH OF WRN TX INTO THE DESERT SW.
HOWEVER...WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT...AND
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.
...PORTIONS OF S CENTRAL TX AND THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...
A RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD OF SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH WILL
IMMEDIATELY FOLLOW THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY
MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF S CENTRAL TX AND THE LOWER
RIO GRANDE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM THROUGH THE 70S
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...WHILE A DRY POST FRONTAL AIRMASS SPREADS
SOUTH INTO THE REGION...RESULTING IN RH VALUES AOB 20 PERCENT.
THUS...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE
OBSERVED...BUT THE TEMPORAL THRESHOLD OF 3 HRS WILL NOT BE
MET...PRECLUDING AN OUTLOOK AREA.
...SRN NM AND SWRN-FAR W TX...
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT MID LVL FLOW /CENTERED AROUND 700
MB/ WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY LEAD TO A
PERIOD OF SUSTAINED WINDS AOA 20 MPH /ESPECIALLY OVER FAVORED
ELEVATED TERRAIN/. A VERY DRY AIRMASS /PWAT VALUES AROUND 0.10
IN...AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS/ WILL
RESULT IN RH VALUES AOB 10-15 PERCENT. HOWEVER...THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN APPEARS UNFAVORABLE FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
/I.E. UPR TROUGH MOVING DOWNSTREAM AWAY FROM THE REGION...LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE...RESULTING IN A SHALLOW MIXED
LAYER/...AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATES A LOW PROBABILITY OF 20+
MPH SUSTAINED WINDS LASTING FOR 3 HRS OR MORE. THEREFORE...AN
OUTLOOK AREA WILL NOT BE ASSIGNED.
..GARNER.. 03/31/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 310737
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0237 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2009
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WRN INTO FAR W TX...SRN
NM...EXTREME SERN AZ...
...SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE MID LVL S/W TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP SEWD ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN INTO NM/W TX DURING THE D2 PERIOD. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF THE UPR
WAVE...WITH LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO
FALLING HEIGHTS/SURFACE PRESSURE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING WWD FROM
THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE SWD ACROSS AZ/NM AND W TX DURING THE DAY.
WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW RH ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR SOUTH OF THE COLD
FRONT...AND WILL COMBINE WITH THE STRONG WINDS RESULTING IN CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - WRN INTO FAR W TX...SRN NM...EXTREME
SERN AZ...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS...LOW RH...MODERATE TO SEVERE
DROUGHT
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 70S AND POSSIBLY 80S
OVER THE CRITICAL OUTLOOK AREA ON WED/D2...CONTRIBUTING TO A DEEPLY
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS. IN ADDITION...VERY LOW DEWPOINTS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH FURTHER DRYING OCCURRING AS MIXING INCREASES AND
DOWNSLOPE FLOW STRENGTHENS. THESE FACTORS WILL RESULT IN RH VALUES
FALLING TOWARD THE SINGLE DIGITS. AS A POTENT S/W TROUGH APPROACHES
THE REGION BY MID AFTERNOON...MID LEVEL FLOW WILL STEADILY
INCREASE...WHILE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FARTHER DOWNSTREAM DEEPENS.
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-30 MPH...WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH APPEAR
LIKELY...FAVORING RAPID WILDFIRE SPREAD. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS POSSIBLE EXTREME CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER SRN
NM AND SWRN-FAR W TX...AND ONE MAY BE ASSIGNED IN THE NEXT FORECAST
ISSUANCE IF A CONSENSUS IN MODEL OUTPUT IS REACHED.
..GARNER.. 03/31/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...