Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

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   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 020833
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0333 AM CDT THU APR 02 2009
   
   VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ERN SW INTO S CENTRAL TX AS WELL
   AS THE LWR/MID COASTAL PLAIN OF TX...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A POTENT S/W TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS TX ON THUR/D1...ACCOMPANIED
   BY STRONG MID/UPR LVL WIND FIELDS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE INITIALLY
   LOCATED OVER OK WILL RAPIDLY MOVE ENE TOWARD THE MID SOUTH REGION BY
   LATE AFTERNOON...WHILE A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SSW FROM THE LOW WILL
   MOVE ACROSS TX AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
   VERY DRY AIR/LOW RH VALUES LOCATED BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
   THE SRN HALF OF TX...WHILE SURFACE WINDS RAPIDLY
   INCREASE...RESULTING IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - ERN SW INTO S CENTRAL TX AS WELL AS
   THE LWR/MID COASTAL PLAIN OF TX...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS...LOW RH...MODERATE TO EXCEPTIONAL
   DROUGHT
   
   AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE SRN PLAINS...A COLD FRONT WILL
   QUICKLY MOVE FROM NWRN TX INTO S CENTRAL TX BY MID MORNING...AND
   THEN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY EARLY AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE
   INDICATES THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY LOW
   DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S /WHICH APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTED BY
   SURFACE OBS OVER W TX AND NM/. AS TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE
   MORNING...RH VALUES AOB 15-25 PERCENT SHOULD DEVELOP. MEANWHILE...A
   90 KT MID LVL JET WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS TX DURING THE MORNING. THIS
   WILL AID IN STRENGTHENING THE SURFACE LOW EJECTING TOWARD THE MID
   SOUTH...AS WELL AS FORCING A STRONG THERMALLY DIRECT LOW LEVEL
   RESPONSE OVER TX. THIS WILL FAVOR SUSTAINED WINDS AOA 20-25
   MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 35 MPH OR HIGHER. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NWRN PORTION OF THE
   OUTLOOK AREA BY MID MORNING...AND THEN SPREAD S AND E BY LATE
   MORNING. AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW CONTINUE TO MOVE ENE
   AWAY FROM THE REGION...CRITICAL CONDITIONS SHOULD COME TO AN END FOR
   MOST LOCATIONS BY MID AFTERNOON AS SURFACE WINDS RELAX.
   
   OF ADDITIONAL NOTE...THUNDERSTORMS WERE BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN
   COVERAGE OVER CENTRAL TX EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. AS THESE STORMS
   MOVE TOWARD ERN TX...THEY WILL LAY A SWATH OF GROUND WETTING
   PRECIPITATION. THOUGH RAPID LOW LVL DRYING IS FORECAST WITHIN THE
   POST FRONTAL AIRMASS...FUELS MAY BE IMPACTED SUFFICIENTLY BY MORNING
   RAINFALL...AND SHOULD ACT AS AN EFFECTIVE NRN BOUNDARY FOR THE
   CRITICAL OUTLOOK AREA.
   
   ...PORTIONS OF NWRN AND N CENTRAL TX...
   SIMILAR TO S CENTRAL TX...STRONG WINDS AND A DRY LOW LVL AIRMASS
   WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF TX DURING THURSDAY MORNING.
   HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...AND ARE NOT
   FORECAST TO MODIFY SUFFICIENTLY BEFORE STRONG WINDS EXIT THE REGION.
   DESPITE THE MORE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT...FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
   STILL BE ELEVATED DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS.
   
   ..GARNER.. 04/02/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 020835
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0335 AM CDT THU APR 02 2009
   
   VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SRN/ERN
   NM...NW TX AND FAR SRN PANHANDLE...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR OVER ERN CO ON FRI/D2 AS
   AN INCREASE IN MID LVL WSW FLOW OCCURS AHEAD OF A DIGGING UPR LVL
   TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN. AN AXIS OF WARM LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES
   AND FALLING RH VALUES WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS IN
   RESPONSE TO DOWN SLOPING LOW LVL FLOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN AREA OF
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS SURFACE WINDS STRENGTHEN DURING
   THE AFTERNOON.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SRN/ERN NM...NW
   TX AND FAR SRN PANHANDLE...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: WIND...LOW RH...MODERATE DROUGHT
   
   ENSEMBLE FORECAST GUIDANCE AS WELL AS DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT SUGGEST
   THAT RH VALUES AOB 15 PERCENT WILL DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF ERN NM
   INTO NW TX BY MID AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING WESTERLY
   DOWN SLOPE FLOW...WITH LOWER PROBABILITIES INDICATED FARTHER W INTO
   SRN/SWRN NM. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-25 MPH APPEAR PROBABLE AS LOW
   PRESSURE DEEPENS TO THE NORTH AND MID LVL WINDS GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN
   ABOVE A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS. DUE TO GENERAL CONSENSUS
   AMONG ENSEMBLE FORECASTS...AN EWD SHIFT IN THE CRITICAL OUTLOOK AREA
   TOWARD PORTIONS OF NW TX AND THE FAR SRN PANHANDLE HAS BEEN MADE.
   
   ..GARNER.. 04/02/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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