Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 030726
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0226 AM CDT FRI APR 03 2009
   
   VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN AZ...SRN/CNTRL/NERN NM...NWRN
   TX...TX/OK PANHANDLES...FAR WRN OK...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE SEWD AND
   AMPLIFY OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...BECOMING CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER
   THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD. INCREASING SWLY FLOW
   AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW WILL LEAD TO LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS...AND A
   SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED ROUGHLY OVER NRN WY WILL SAG SWD AND
   DEEPEN NEAR THE CO/KS BORDERS. IN RESPONSE...SWLY/SLY WINDS WILL
   STRENGTHEN DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN PLAINS AND
   SWRN STATES...WHILE CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY AS RHS FALL.
   MEANWHILE AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH...STRONG AND GUSTY NLY
   WINDS WILL AFFECT CNTRL/SRN CA FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL
   PASSAGE...WITH MARGINAL/LOW RHS THROUGH THE VALLEYS OF SRN CA.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SRN AZ...SRN/CNTRL/NERN NM...NWRN
   TX...WRN TX/OK PANHANDLES...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS...LOW RH...DROUGHT
   
   A DRY AIRMASS REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE SRN PLAINS FOLLOWING
   YESTERDAYS FRONTAL PASSAGE. DESPITE A SHIFT IN SURFACE WINDS TO
   SLY/SWLY IN RESPONSE TO LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS...LITTLE MOISTURE WILL
   BE AVAILABLE TO ADVECT NWD/NEWD...PER SATELLITE PWAT TRENDS AND DEW
   POINT OBSERVATIONS. BY AFTERNOON...DEEP MIXING AND SOME DOWNSLOPING
   EFFECTS IN ERN NM/WRN TX WILL ALLOW RHS TO FALL INTO THE TEENS AND
   LOWER 20S AS TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.
   SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AS PRESSURE FALLS TO THE NORTH...WITH
   SUSTAINED SPEEDS NEAR 25 TO 35 MPH AND GUSTS NEAR 45 MPH AS MIXING
   ALLOWS STRONGER SPEEDS TO REACH THE SURFACE. DESPITE INCREASING
   RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OVERNIGHT...SUSTAINED SLY/SWLY WINDS WITH SPEEDS
   NEAR 15 TO 20 MPH WILL BE LIKELY.
   
   ...FAR WRN OK/ERN OK PANHANDLE/NERN TX PANHANDLE...
   DESPITE STRONG SLY/SELY WINDS NEAR 25 TO 35 MPH...THE FIRE THREAT
   WILL BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL ACROSS THESE AREAS. SLIGHTLY HIGHER
   MOISTURE CONTENT WILL PREVENT RHS FROM DROPPING BELOW CRITICAL
   THRESHOLDS...WITH MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NERN TX PANHANDLE AND
   THE ERN OK PANHANDLE...AND LOWER 30S INTO WRN OK.
   FURTHERMORE...RECENT SNOWFALL AND LIGHT RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THESE
   AREAS WILL PREVENT FUELS FROM DRYING AS FAST AS AREAS TO THE W. IF
   FUELS CAN DRY FASTER IN STRONG WINDS/WARM TEMPERATURES...AN ENHANCED
   FIRE THREAT WILL CERTAINLY EXIST.
   
   ...SRN CA...
   A COLD FRONT DRAPED ROUGHLY OVER CNTRL CA THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE
   TO PROGRESS SWD THROUGH THE DAY...COMPLETELY MOVING THROUGH THE
   STATE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
   PASSAGE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGHOUT THE SRN CA
   VALLEYS...WITH HIGHS INTO THE 60S...AND MID TO UPPER 70S IN FAR SRN
   CA. STRONG NLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW...ALIGNING WITH MARGINAL RHS.
   
   ..HURLBUT.. 04/03/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 030829
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0329 AM CDT FRI APR 03 2009
   
   VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SERN AZ...SRN/ERN NM...WRN
   TX...TX/OK PANHANDLES...FAR WRN OK...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER LOW WILL BE CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER CNTRL CO AT THE START OF
   THE PERIOD...WITH A SURFACE CYCLONE NEAR THE CO/KS BORDERS. SLY
   WINDS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT STRONG THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS
   THE SRN PLAINS. THE UPPER LOW AND A COMPACT 80-100 KT MID LEVEL JET
   WILL PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON...BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE NEAR THE NERN KS/NWRN MO BORDERS
   BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE SURFACE LOW WILL PROGRESS EWD AS
   WELL...REACHING CNTRL KS BY THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE
   ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...WHILE LOW RHS WILL PERSIST BEHIND A DRYLINE
   THAT WILL EXTEND SWD THROUGH CNTRL KS/OK/TX. JUST W OF THESE
   AREAS...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO WLY AHEAD OF A COLD
   FRONT...THEN NWLY FOLLOWING ITS PASSAGE IN THE EVENING.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SERN AZ...SRN/ERN NM...WRN
   TX...TX/OK PANHANDLES...FAR WRN OK...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS...LOW RH...DROUGHT
   
   STRONG SLY WINDS AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT
   FROM D1 INTO D2. ALTHOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL INITIALLY BE
   HIGH...EXPECT VALUES TO QUICKLY PLUMMET THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
   INTO THE AFTERNOON...WHILE WINDS QUICKLY INCREASE IN SPEED. BY LATE
   MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE WARMED INTO THE 50S AND 60S...WHILE
   WIND SPEEDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH AND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED.
   WINDS ACROSS THE WRN PORTION OF THE CRITICAL WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO
   WLY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WITH SIMILAR SPEEDS BEING MAINTAINED
   THROUGH THE DAY. BY AFTERNOON...THE SURFACE LOW WILL PROGRESS
   TOWARDS CNTRL KS...AND A DRYLINE WILL EXTEND SWD THROUGH KS/OK...AND
   INTO TX. RHS BEHIND THE DRYLINE WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER
   20S AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S AND 80S. JUST W OF THESE
   AREAS...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE QUICKLY MOVING INTO NWRN OK/TX.
   TEMPERATURES WILL FALL FAST...SUBSEQUENTLY RAISING RHS DESPITE AN
   OTHERWISE DRY AIRMASS. WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY FROM THE NW
   FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE
   REMAINDER OF THE CRITICAL AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND WINDS WILL
   SHIFT TO NWLY WHILE BLOWING NEAR 20 MPH...POSING A THREAT TO ONGOING
   FIRES. COOLER TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD HELP
   TO MITIGATE THE THREAT.
   
   ..HURLBUT.. 04/03/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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