Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 060717
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0217 AM CDT MON APR 06 2009
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SERN/SRN TX...
...SYNOPSIS...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL EXIST OVER THE CONUS TODAY. IN THE
EAST...AN UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARDS THE ERN GREAT
LAKES...WITH A LARGE SCALE TROUGH DOMINATING THE ERN STATES. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS AND INTO
THE OPEN ATLANTIC BY MID AFTERNOON...WHILE THE SRN PORTION WILL
PROGRESS SEWD THROUGH FLORIDA...MOVING OFF THE SRN END OF THE
PENINSULA EARLY TUE MORNING. STRONG AND DRY NLY/NWLY WINDS WILL
FOLLOW...POSING A FIRE HAZARD ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE SERN
STATES AND THE FL PANHANDLE WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER.
CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS SERN/SRN TX WHERE LOWER
RHS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL EXIST IN COMPARISON TO AREAS
FURTHER E.
IN THE WEST...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO DEAMPLIFY AND SHIFT EWD AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LOW APPROACHING THE CALIFORNIA COAST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
EXIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE WRN STATES...WHILE LOW RHS PERSIST IN THE
SOUTHWEST. GUSTY WINDS MAY ALIGN WITH THESE LOW RHS OVER SRN CA/NV
AND WRN AZ AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SERN/SRN TX...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: LOW RH...STRONG WINDS...SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL
DROUGHT
FOLLOWING YESTERDAYS FRONTAL PASSAGE...NLY WINDS AND COLD/DRY
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS TX. LITTLE RH RECOVERY CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS MORNING...AND AS TEMPERATURES WARM RHS WILL CONTINUE
TO FALL. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...A
VERY DRY AIRMASS...NEARLY HALF OF CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS PER 00Z
SOUNDING PWAT ANALYSIS...WILL ALLOW RHS TO PLUMMET INTO THE TEENS
AND LOWER 20S ACROSS MUCH OF SERN/SRN TX...WITH MID 20S CLOSER TO
THE COAST. NLY WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED NEAR 20 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GIVEN SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT...A HEIGHTENED FIRE
THREAT WILL EXIST. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THIS
MORNING...IN THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S OVERNIGHT...SHOULD HELP TO
MITIGATE THE THREAT.
...SRN LA/MS/AL AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE...
AS A LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH PERSISTS IN THE EAST...STRONG NWLY
FLOW WILL ADVECT COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH
COOL TEMPERATURES SHOULD MITIGATE THE THREAT ACROSS MOST
AREAS...LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A THREAT AS 20 TO 25 MPH WINDS AND HIGHER GUSTS ALIGN WITH
MARGINAL RHS. ALTHOUGH MODEL RH FORECASTS APPEAR MARGINAL...DRIER
AIR FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ALSO NOTED ON WV IMAGERY IS
QUICKLY MOVING INTO PORTIONS OF THE WRN GULF...AND IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT COASTAL LA/MS WILL EXPERIENCE BRIEF DURATIONS OF SUBCRITICAL RH
VALUES.
...SRN CA/NV AND WRN AZ...
LITTLE RAINFALL HAS BEEN RECEIVED OVER THE PAST MONTH...WHILE WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS HAVE PERSISTED RECENTLY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
SLOWLY BEGIN TO SHIFT EWD AND DEAMPLIFY...ALTHOUGH AS THIS OCCURS
ANOTHER DAY OF WARM TEMPERATURES AND CRITICALLY LOW RHS WILL EXIST
ACROSS SRN CA/NV AND WRN AZ. THE SLOW EWD PROGRESSION OF AN UPPER
LOW APPROACHING THE CNTRL CA COAST SHOULD PREVENT SUSTAINED CRITICAL
WINDS...ALTHOUGH GUSTY WINDS MAY ALIGN WITH WARM/DRY CONDITIONS AS
IT NEARS THE COAST.
..HURLBUT.. 04/06/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 060831
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0331 AM CDT MON APR 06 2009
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SERN CA/SRN NV/WRN AZ...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FLORIDA...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH THE EASTERN STATES
LARGELY DOMINATED BY AN UPPER TROUGH. STRONG NWLY FLOW AROUND THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL BRING A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS TO THE SERN
STATES...AND CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS FL.
FURTHER W...A WEAK LOW WILL FORM INVOF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES IN
RESPONSE TO NWLY FLOW ALOFT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SLY/SWLY AT THE
SURFACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN PLAINS...ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN DRY. THIS COULD LEAD TO A MARGINAL FIRE THREAT...ESPECIALLY
IN AREAS CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW.
EVEN FARTHER W AN UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT ONSHORE THE CNTRL CA
COAST...AND STRONG SWLY WINDS ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD THE SWRN STATES.
AT THE SURFACE...A LOW WILL FORM INVOF THE GREAT BASIN...AND A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH WRN NV/CNTRL CA DURING THE DAY...THEN
THROUGH NV/SRN CA REACHING THE UT AND AZ BORDERS EARLY WED MORNING.
AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC MOISTURE...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE SWRN STATES...WITH STRONG SLY WINDS AND HIGHER GUSTS OVER
SERN CA/SRN NV AND WRN AZ.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SERN CA/SRN NV/WRN AZ...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS...LOW RH...ANTECEDENT DRYNESS
AN UPPER LOW SLOWLY DRIFTING TOWARDS THE CNTRL CA COAST WILL FINALLY
BEGIN TO MOVE ONSHORE...OVERSPREADING STRONG SWLY WINDS ALOFT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE SWRN STATES. IN RESPONSE...A SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN TO
FORM OVER THE GREAT BASIN...AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
INTO CNTRL CA BY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS...WINDS WILL INCREASE
ACROSS SERN CA/SRN NV AND WRN AZ...WITH SPEEDS NEAR 20 TO 30 MPH AND
HIGHER GUSTS LIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM...INTO THE UPPER
70S IN THE NRN END OF THE CRITICAL...AND LOWER 90S TO THE S. RHS
WILL EASILY FALL INTO THE LOWER TEENS.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - FLORIDA...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS...LOW RH...HIGH KBDI IN CNTRL/SRN
FL
COOL/DRY CONTINENTAL AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE ADVECTED SEWD AS A
LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE ERN STATES. ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN D1...A DRIER AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO
CRITICALLY LOW RHS ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. WINDS WILL BE
STRONG...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS NEAR 20 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS TO 30 MPH
MIXING TO THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM LOWER 60S ACROSS
NRN FL TO LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTH...WHILE RHS WILL RANGE FROM MID TO
UPPER 20S IN THE N...TO MID 30S IN THE SOUTH. ALTHOUGH AREAS ACROSS
THE N HAVE RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL RECENTLY...AREAS ACROSS
CNTRL/SRN FL HAVE NOT...AND KBDIS REMAIN HIGH. FURTHERMORE...DRY
CONDITIONS ON D1 MAY HELP TO DRY OUT SOME FUELS ACROSS NRN FL.
...MUCH OF CNTRL/WRN TX...WRN OK...ERN NM...
NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW
INVOF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SLY/SWLY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN PLAINS...ALTHOUGH GIVEN A RECENT FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND THE MAGNITUDE OF DRY AIR IN THE WRN GULF...LITTLE
MOISTURE WILL RETURN WITH THIS SHIFT. WARM TEMPERATURES AND
CRITICALLY LOW RHS WILL DOMINATE A LARGE PORTION OF THE SRN
PLAINS...ALTHOUGH GENERALLY WITH MARGINAL WINDS. THE EXCEPTION MAY
BE AREAS CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW...WHERE SPEEDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH
MAY BE OBTAINED.
..HURLBUT.. 04/06/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...