Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 080732
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0232 AM CDT WED APR 08 2009
   
   VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SERN AZ...SRN/ERN NM...WRN
   TX...WRN TX/OK PANHANDLES...SERN CO...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR S CNTRL TX...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FLORIDA...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE NRN CA COAST WILL PROGRESS
   EWD AS AN OPEN WAVE...BECOMING ALIGNED OVER THE ROCKIES BY EARLY THU
   MORNING. MEANWHILE...A STRONG VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND MID LEVEL JET
   CORE WILL BARREL INTO THE CNTRL CA COAST. AHEAD OF THESE
   FEATURES...STRONG SWLY WINDS ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD THE SWRN STATES.
   IN RESPONSE...A LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP...WITH A DEEPER SURFACE LOW
   FORMING NEAR THE SERN CO/NERN NM BORDERS. STRONG SURFACE WINDS/GUSTS
   WILL ALIGN WITH LOW RHS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE SWRN STATES
   TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
   
   ACROSS S CNTRL TX...UPPER RIDGING AND AN EXTREMELY DRY AIRMASS WILL
   LEAD TO WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW RHS BY AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE
   PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO THE
   NORTHWEST...AND HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW
   STRONG SLY WINDS TO ALIGN WITH HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS. 
   
   FARTHER E...A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL DOMINATE...WITH COOL AND
   DRY CONTINENTAL FLOW IN THE SOUTHEAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
   PERSIST OFF THE SRN FL COAST...WITH 10 TO 20 MPH WINDS RETURNING TO
   A SLY/SWLY DIRECTION. DESPITE THIS...LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE
   AVAILABLE AND RHS ACROSS FL WILL EASILY FALL INTO THE 20S AND 30S.
   
   ANOTHER DAY OF EXTREMELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SRN
   STATES.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SERN AZ...SRN/ERN NM...WRN TX...WRN
   TX/OK PANHANDLES...SERN CO...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS...LOW RH...DROUGHT
   
   A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP INVOF THE SERN CO/NERN NM BORDERS IN
   RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW TO THE W. SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
   25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE PRESSURE
   GRADIENT INCREASES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ALLOW STRONG GUSTS TO
   MIX TO THE SURFACE. SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED CLOSER TO
   THE LOW...ALTHOUGH STILL IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE. AN EXTREMELY DRY
   AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA...AND RHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
   LOWER TEENS CAN BE EXPECTED AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S AND
   LOWER 80S. LITTLE RH RECOVERY WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT...AND WINDS WILL
   CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 MPH.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - S CNTRL TX...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS...LOW RH...SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL
   DROUGHT
   
   AN EXTREMELY DRY AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE SOUTH...PER 00Z SOUNDING
   DATA...PWAT...AND WV IMAGERY TRENDS. CURRENT RHS WILL MAKE SOME
   RECOVERY THIS MORNING....NEAR 60%...BUT WILL QUICKLY PLUMMET AGAIN
   BY AFTERNOON INTO VERY LOW VALUES...LOW 20S ACROSS S CNTRL TX...WITH
   LOWER 30S TOWARDS THE COAST. SLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH
   IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A SURFACE LOW
   DEVELOPING TO THE NORTHWEST...AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE E.
   TEMPERATURES WILL EASILY WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S IN SLY WINDS
   AND WITH UPPER RIDGING OVERHEAD. THIS WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS FIRE
   CONDITIONS IN AN AREA PLAGUED BY SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT. RHS
   WILL IMPROVE AFTER SUNSET...ALTHOUGH SLY/SWLY WINDS NEAR 10 TO 15
   MPH WILL PERSIST.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - FLORIDA...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: WINDS...LOW RH...HIGH KBDI IN CNTRL/SRN FL
   
   LATEST FRONTAL INTRUSION AND COOL/DRY CONTINENTAL FLOW ALOFT HAS
   ROBBED THE SOUTH OF ANY APPRECIABLE MOISTURE...EVIDENCED BY 00Z
   SOUNDING DATA WHICH SHOWS PWATS THAT ARE NEARLY A QUARTER OF
   CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS...AND DEW POINTS INTO THE 40S AS FAR SOUTH AS
   CUBA. WINDS ACROSS FL WILL SHIFT TO SWLY TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH
   PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE BAHAMAS. DESPITE THIS...LITTLE
   MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE TO RETURN...AND CONSEQUENTLY ANOTHER DAY OF
   CRITICALLY LOW RHS WILL BE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN WARMER
   TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE
   MID 60S TO LOWER 70S...RHS IN THE MID 20S CAN BE EXPECTED
   INLAND...WHILE LOWER TO MID 30S WILL BE LIKELY ALONG THE COASTS.
   WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED...GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST
   WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CNTRL/SRN E COASTS...WHERE AFTERNOON
   SEABREEZE EFFECTS WILL ALLOW A WIND SHIFT TO ELY/SELY.
   
   ...MUCH OF THE SOUTH...
   AN EXTREMELY DRY AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTH...WHILE MANY
   AREAS...PARTICULARLY THE SRN PLAINS WWD...HAVE SEEN LITTLE RAINFALL
   RECENTLY. MULTIPLE FIRES WERE OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
   YESTERDAY...AND THE SAME CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY. APART FROM THE
   CRITICAL AREAS WHERE THE FIRE THREAT REMAINS THE HIGHEST...WARM
   TEMPERATURES AND LOW RHS WILL BE COMMON TODAY ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF
   THE SOUTH. DESPITE SLY WIND DIRECTION...LITTLE MOISTURE WILL RETURN.
   FIRE CREWS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT AN ENHANCED THREAT REMAINS POSSIBLE
   ACROSS A WIDESPREAD AREA.
   
   ..HURLBUT.. 04/08/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 081334
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK CORR 1
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0834 AM CDT WED APR 08 2009
   
   VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
   
   CORRECTED FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREA
   
   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SERN NM...W CNTRL/N
   CNTRL TX...SWRN OK...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SURROUNDING THE EXTREME IN SRN/ERN
   NM...TX PANHANDLE...SWRN OK AND MUCH OF WRN/CNTRL TX...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A STRONG VORTICITY MAXIMUM/UPPER LOW AND MID LEVEL JET CORE THAT
   WILL DIVE INTO THE CNTRL CA COAST TODAY WILL PROGRESS SEWD THEN EWD
   ALONG WITH A STRONG MID LEVEL JET CORE THAT WILL OVERSPREAD THE
   SOUTHWEST...LEADING TO CRITICAL CONDITIONS ON D1.
   PRECONDITIONING...BOTH LONG AND SHORT TERM...WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
   A SIGNIFICANT FIRE THREAT ON D2.
   
   THE UPPER LOW WILL BRIEFLY PHASE WITH A SECONDARY UPPER LOW OVER WY
   AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BEFORE TRANSITIONING EWD AS A CLOSED
   LOW OVER KS BY AFTERNOON AND SPREADING STRONG WINDS ALOFT OVER THE
   SRN PLAINS. 
   
   A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE NERN NM/SERN CO BORDER WILL TRANSITION EWD AS
   WELL...DEEPENING OVER CNTRL OK AND PROGRESSING INTO THE MID MS
   VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING. EXTREMELY CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
   ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN PLAINS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND BEHIND A
   DRYLINE. AS THE COLD FRONT DIVES SWD...A WIND SHIFT WILL POSE A
   THREAT TO ANY ONGOING FIRES. EVEN WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...RHS
   WILL BE SLOW TO RECOVER OVERNIGHT. 
   
   FARTHER E...ANOTHER DAY OF CRITICALLY LOW RHS WILL BE POSSIBLE
   ACROSS THE INLAND FL PENINSULA.
   
   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SERN NM...W CNTRL/N CNTRL
   TX...SWRN OK...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: VERY STRONG WINDS...LOW
   RH...DROUGHT...ANTECEDENT DRYNESS
   
   A SIGNIFICANT FIRE THREAT APPEARS LIKELY FOR THURSDAY AS AN UPPER
   LOW MOVES EWD INTO KS DURING THE DAY AND A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER
   CNTRL OK. A STRONG 50+ KT 700MB JET WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF TX/OK AS
   THIS OCCURS. SUSTAINED WLY/SWLY WINDS NEAR 30 TO 40 MPH WILL BE
   LIKELY. VERY DEEP MIXING HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW STRONG GUSTS OF 50 TO 60
   MPH /WITH GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW
   TX/ AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF TX...AND
   INTO THE 70S TO THE N TOWARDS OK. RHS WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS
   BEHIND THE DRYLINE. LITTLE RAINFALL HAS BEEN RECEIVED RECENTLY AND
   AN EXTREMELY DRY AIRMASS WILL PRECONDITION FUELS FOR EASY
   STARTS/RAPID SPREAD. BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...NRN PORTIONS
   OF THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL WILL ENCOUNTER A WIND SHIFT AS A COLD
   FRONT MOVES SOUTH...POSING A THREAT TO ANY EXISTING FIRES. THE FRONT
   WILL CONTINUE SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH WINDS SHIFTING
   THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTREME AFTER DARK. RHS WILL BE SLOW TO
   RECOVER.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SURROUNDING THE EXTREME IN SRN/ERN
   NM...TX PANHANDLE...SWRN OK AND MUCH OF WRN/CNTRL TX...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS...LOW RH...DROUGHT...ANTECEDENT
   DRYNESS
   
   IT SHOULD BE CAUTIONED THAT THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL AND CRITICAL
   AREAS MAY BE ADJUSTED IN TOMORROWS FORECAST. ON THE WRN EDGE...WINDS
   WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER ACROSS SWRN NM....THOUGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
   MID 60S TO LOWER 70S AND RHS IN THE TEENS WILL ALIGN WITH 25 TO 30
   MPH WINDS. ALONG THE NRN PORTION OF THE CRITICAL....TEMPERATURES
   WILL BE COOLER AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES FROM THE N...AND WILL LIKELY
   ONLY REACH INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE PANHANDLE...AND LOW TO MID 60S
   IN E CNTRL NM. THIS WILL LIMIT RHS FROM DROPPING AS LOW AS AREAS TO
   THE S. WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH A RAPID SHIFT
   FROM WLY TO NWLY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ALONG ERN PORTIONS OF THE
   CRITICAL...WINDS WILL BE STRONG...BUT WITH MARGINAL RHS. EVEN WITH
   MARGINAL RHS...THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS WILL STILL POSE A
   SIGNIFICANT THREAT. IN AREAS TO THE S...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
   WARMER...BUT WITH LIGHTER WINDS.
   
   ...FLORIDA...
   HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE OF THE FL COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
   RETURN MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...LIGHT SLY WINDS UP THE
   PENINSULA WILL LEAD TO WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW RHS INLAND WHERE
   ATLANTIC/GULF MOISTURE WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH. RHS IN THE UPPER 20S
   CAN BE ANTICIPATED AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S.
   
   ..HURLBUT.. 04/08/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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