Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
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FNUS21 KWNS 080732
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0232 AM CDT WED APR 08 2009
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SERN AZ...SRN/ERN NM...WRN
TX...WRN TX/OK PANHANDLES...SERN CO...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR S CNTRL TX...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FLORIDA...
...SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE NRN CA COAST WILL PROGRESS
EWD AS AN OPEN WAVE...BECOMING ALIGNED OVER THE ROCKIES BY EARLY THU
MORNING. MEANWHILE...A STRONG VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND MID LEVEL JET
CORE WILL BARREL INTO THE CNTRL CA COAST. AHEAD OF THESE
FEATURES...STRONG SWLY WINDS ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD THE SWRN STATES.
IN RESPONSE...A LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP...WITH A DEEPER SURFACE LOW
FORMING NEAR THE SERN CO/NERN NM BORDERS. STRONG SURFACE WINDS/GUSTS
WILL ALIGN WITH LOW RHS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE SWRN STATES
TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
ACROSS S CNTRL TX...UPPER RIDGING AND AN EXTREMELY DRY AIRMASS WILL
LEAD TO WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW RHS BY AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO THE
NORTHWEST...AND HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW
STRONG SLY WINDS TO ALIGN WITH HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS.
FARTHER E...A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL DOMINATE...WITH COOL AND
DRY CONTINENTAL FLOW IN THE SOUTHEAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PERSIST OFF THE SRN FL COAST...WITH 10 TO 20 MPH WINDS RETURNING TO
A SLY/SWLY DIRECTION. DESPITE THIS...LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE
AVAILABLE AND RHS ACROSS FL WILL EASILY FALL INTO THE 20S AND 30S.
ANOTHER DAY OF EXTREMELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SRN
STATES.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SERN AZ...SRN/ERN NM...WRN TX...WRN
TX/OK PANHANDLES...SERN CO...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS...LOW RH...DROUGHT
A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP INVOF THE SERN CO/NERN NM BORDERS IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW TO THE W. SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ALLOW STRONG GUSTS TO
MIX TO THE SURFACE. SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED CLOSER TO
THE LOW...ALTHOUGH STILL IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE. AN EXTREMELY DRY
AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA...AND RHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
LOWER TEENS CAN BE EXPECTED AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S AND
LOWER 80S. LITTLE RH RECOVERY WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT...AND WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 MPH.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - S CNTRL TX...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS...LOW RH...SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL
DROUGHT
AN EXTREMELY DRY AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE SOUTH...PER 00Z SOUNDING
DATA...PWAT...AND WV IMAGERY TRENDS. CURRENT RHS WILL MAKE SOME
RECOVERY THIS MORNING....NEAR 60%...BUT WILL QUICKLY PLUMMET AGAIN
BY AFTERNOON INTO VERY LOW VALUES...LOW 20S ACROSS S CNTRL TX...WITH
LOWER 30S TOWARDS THE COAST. SLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH
IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING TO THE NORTHWEST...AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE E.
TEMPERATURES WILL EASILY WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S IN SLY WINDS
AND WITH UPPER RIDGING OVERHEAD. THIS WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS FIRE
CONDITIONS IN AN AREA PLAGUED BY SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT. RHS
WILL IMPROVE AFTER SUNSET...ALTHOUGH SLY/SWLY WINDS NEAR 10 TO 15
MPH WILL PERSIST.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - FLORIDA...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: WINDS...LOW RH...HIGH KBDI IN CNTRL/SRN FL
LATEST FRONTAL INTRUSION AND COOL/DRY CONTINENTAL FLOW ALOFT HAS
ROBBED THE SOUTH OF ANY APPRECIABLE MOISTURE...EVIDENCED BY 00Z
SOUNDING DATA WHICH SHOWS PWATS THAT ARE NEARLY A QUARTER OF
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS...AND DEW POINTS INTO THE 40S AS FAR SOUTH AS
CUBA. WINDS ACROSS FL WILL SHIFT TO SWLY TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE BAHAMAS. DESPITE THIS...LITTLE
MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE TO RETURN...AND CONSEQUENTLY ANOTHER DAY OF
CRITICALLY LOW RHS WILL BE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN WARMER
TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S...RHS IN THE MID 20S CAN BE EXPECTED
INLAND...WHILE LOWER TO MID 30S WILL BE LIKELY ALONG THE COASTS.
WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED...GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CNTRL/SRN E COASTS...WHERE AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE EFFECTS WILL ALLOW A WIND SHIFT TO ELY/SELY.
...MUCH OF THE SOUTH...
AN EXTREMELY DRY AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTH...WHILE MANY
AREAS...PARTICULARLY THE SRN PLAINS WWD...HAVE SEEN LITTLE RAINFALL
RECENTLY. MULTIPLE FIRES WERE OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
YESTERDAY...AND THE SAME CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY. APART FROM THE
CRITICAL AREAS WHERE THE FIRE THREAT REMAINS THE HIGHEST...WARM
TEMPERATURES AND LOW RHS WILL BE COMMON TODAY ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF
THE SOUTH. DESPITE SLY WIND DIRECTION...LITTLE MOISTURE WILL RETURN.
FIRE CREWS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT AN ENHANCED THREAT REMAINS POSSIBLE
ACROSS A WIDESPREAD AREA.
..HURLBUT.. 04/08/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
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FNUS22 KWNS 081334
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0834 AM CDT WED APR 08 2009
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
CORRECTED FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREA
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SERN NM...W CNTRL/N
CNTRL TX...SWRN OK...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SURROUNDING THE EXTREME IN SRN/ERN
NM...TX PANHANDLE...SWRN OK AND MUCH OF WRN/CNTRL TX...
...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG VORTICITY MAXIMUM/UPPER LOW AND MID LEVEL JET CORE THAT
WILL DIVE INTO THE CNTRL CA COAST TODAY WILL PROGRESS SEWD THEN EWD
ALONG WITH A STRONG MID LEVEL JET CORE THAT WILL OVERSPREAD THE
SOUTHWEST...LEADING TO CRITICAL CONDITIONS ON D1.
PRECONDITIONING...BOTH LONG AND SHORT TERM...WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
A SIGNIFICANT FIRE THREAT ON D2.
THE UPPER LOW WILL BRIEFLY PHASE WITH A SECONDARY UPPER LOW OVER WY
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BEFORE TRANSITIONING EWD AS A CLOSED
LOW OVER KS BY AFTERNOON AND SPREADING STRONG WINDS ALOFT OVER THE
SRN PLAINS.
A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE NERN NM/SERN CO BORDER WILL TRANSITION EWD AS
WELL...DEEPENING OVER CNTRL OK AND PROGRESSING INTO THE MID MS
VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING. EXTREMELY CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN PLAINS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND BEHIND A
DRYLINE. AS THE COLD FRONT DIVES SWD...A WIND SHIFT WILL POSE A
THREAT TO ANY ONGOING FIRES. EVEN WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...RHS
WILL BE SLOW TO RECOVER OVERNIGHT.
FARTHER E...ANOTHER DAY OF CRITICALLY LOW RHS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE INLAND FL PENINSULA.
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SERN NM...W CNTRL/N CNTRL
TX...SWRN OK...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: VERY STRONG WINDS...LOW
RH...DROUGHT...ANTECEDENT DRYNESS
A SIGNIFICANT FIRE THREAT APPEARS LIKELY FOR THURSDAY AS AN UPPER
LOW MOVES EWD INTO KS DURING THE DAY AND A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER
CNTRL OK. A STRONG 50+ KT 700MB JET WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF TX/OK AS
THIS OCCURS. SUSTAINED WLY/SWLY WINDS NEAR 30 TO 40 MPH WILL BE
LIKELY. VERY DEEP MIXING HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW STRONG GUSTS OF 50 TO 60
MPH /WITH GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW
TX/ AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF TX...AND
INTO THE 70S TO THE N TOWARDS OK. RHS WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS
BEHIND THE DRYLINE. LITTLE RAINFALL HAS BEEN RECEIVED RECENTLY AND
AN EXTREMELY DRY AIRMASS WILL PRECONDITION FUELS FOR EASY
STARTS/RAPID SPREAD. BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...NRN PORTIONS
OF THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL WILL ENCOUNTER A WIND SHIFT AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES SOUTH...POSING A THREAT TO ANY EXISTING FIRES. THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH WINDS SHIFTING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTREME AFTER DARK. RHS WILL BE SLOW TO
RECOVER.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SURROUNDING THE EXTREME IN SRN/ERN
NM...TX PANHANDLE...SWRN OK AND MUCH OF WRN/CNTRL TX...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS...LOW RH...DROUGHT...ANTECEDENT
DRYNESS
IT SHOULD BE CAUTIONED THAT THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL AND CRITICAL
AREAS MAY BE ADJUSTED IN TOMORROWS FORECAST. ON THE WRN EDGE...WINDS
WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER ACROSS SWRN NM....THOUGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S AND RHS IN THE TEENS WILL ALIGN WITH 25 TO 30
MPH WINDS. ALONG THE NRN PORTION OF THE CRITICAL....TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOLER AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES FROM THE N...AND WILL LIKELY
ONLY REACH INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE PANHANDLE...AND LOW TO MID 60S
IN E CNTRL NM. THIS WILL LIMIT RHS FROM DROPPING AS LOW AS AREAS TO
THE S. WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH A RAPID SHIFT
FROM WLY TO NWLY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ALONG ERN PORTIONS OF THE
CRITICAL...WINDS WILL BE STRONG...BUT WITH MARGINAL RHS. EVEN WITH
MARGINAL RHS...THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS WILL STILL POSE A
SIGNIFICANT THREAT. IN AREAS TO THE S...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER...BUT WITH LIGHTER WINDS.
...FLORIDA...
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE OF THE FL COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
RETURN MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...LIGHT SLY WINDS UP THE
PENINSULA WILL LEAD TO WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW RHS INLAND WHERE
ATLANTIC/GULF MOISTURE WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH. RHS IN THE UPPER 20S
CAN BE ANTICIPATED AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S.
..HURLBUT.. 04/08/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...