Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 210802
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0302 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2009
   
   VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE
   ERN CONUS. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL DEAMPLIFY AS A
   WEAK SRN STREAM IMPULSE APPROACHES THE SRN CA COAST AND A SHORT WAVE
   TROUGH DIGS ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST.
   
   ...INTERIOR AND ERN PORTIONS OF CNTRL FL...
   A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS /WELL-DEPICTED IN RECENT WATER VAPOR
   IMAGERY/...WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EWD ACROSS CNTRL FL THIS MORNING.
   UPSTREAM GPS PW VALUES OF 0.50 TO 0.75 IN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
   RESULTING IN SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE DRYING AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
   ENSUES. RH VALUES WILL FALL TO AROUND 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON.
   HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL WLYS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY.
   THUS...SUSTAINED SURFACE SPEEDS SHOULD HOLD AROUND 10 MPH AS RH
   BECOMES CRITICALLY LOW.
   
   ...N-CNTRL CA TO CNTRL ORE...
   LATEST AVAILABLE GACC/FUELS INFORMATION INDICATE THAT FUELS SHOULD
   GENERALLY REMAIN TOO MOIST TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR A CRITICAL FIRE
   AREA. NEVERTHELESS...ISOLATED DRY TSTMS MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON OVER HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG AND E OF THE CASCADE/KLAMATH
   MTNS AS THE WRN RIDGE BREAKS DOWN. WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
   WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INVERTED-V TYPE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. MID-LEVEL
   MOISTENING AND DEGREE OF UPPER-LEVEL FORCING APPEARS
   MODEST...SUGGESTING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD BE SPARSE.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 04/21/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 210926
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0426 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2009
   
   VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER
   THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST BY EARLY THU. UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE
   TROUGH ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WILL DIG INTO THE PACIFIC
   NW. A WEAK SRN STREAM IMPULSE WILL GRADUALLY PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE
   SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE
   GULF OF MEXICO/FL. A LEE CYCLONE WILL FORM ALONG THE SRN HIGH
   PLAINS.
   
   ...PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL/FAR S TX...
   RH VALUES WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 12 AND 20 PERCENT AS TEMPERATURES
   WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MIDDLE 90S. SLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AS
   THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH A LEE CYCLONE FORMING
   OVER NERN NM/TX PANHANDLE. HOWEVER...MODEL FORECASTS DIFFER WITH THE
   MAGNITUDE OF THE WIND INCREASE WITH THE NAM NOTABLY STRONGER /FROM
   20 TO 25 MPH/ THAN THE GFS AND ECMWF /AROUND 15 MPH/. GIVEN THIS
   UNCERTAINTY WILL HOLD OFF ON A CRITICAL AREA ISSUANCE ATTM.
   
   ...FAR SERN AZ...
   A BELT OF MODERATE MID-LEVEL SWLYS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE MEXICAN
   BORDER WED AFTERNOON. VERY DEEPLY MIXED THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL
   SUPPORT SUSTAINED SURFACE SPEEDS NEAR 20 MPH AT PEAK HEATING. THIS
   WILL RESULT IN AN ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER THREAT GIVEN RH VALUES OF 5
   TO 10 PERCENT.
   
   ...CNTRL/SRN FL...
   LOW RH /FROM 25 TO 35 PERCENT/ WILL PERVADE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
   PENINSULA OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE COASTS. THE PRESENCE OF A
   LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHOULD LEAD TO WEAK WINDS /AOB 10 MPH/...AND
   MITIGATE A CRITICAL THREAT.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 04/21/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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