Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 220857
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0357 AM CDT WED APR 22 2009
   
   VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER
   THE NORTHEAST BY EARLY THU. UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE
   BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WILL DIG INTO THE PACIFIC NW. A WEAK SRN
   STREAM IMPULSE WILL GRADUALLY PROGRESS EWD ALONG THE
   SOUTHWEST/MEXICO BORDER. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE WILL REMAIN
   ANCHORED ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO/FL. A LEE CYCLONE WILL DEEPEN
   ALONG THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.
   
   ...BIG COUNTRY TO INTERIOR S-CNTRL/FAR S TX...
   AN ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER THREAT WITH LOCALIZED CRITICAL CONDITIONS
   IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE
   90S...WIDESPREAD LOW RH FROM 5 TO 10 PERCENT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
   BIG COUNTRY TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT IN THE BRUSH COUNTRY OF INTERIOR
   S-CNTRL/FAR S TX. SLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
   GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH A LEE CYCLONE DEVELOPING OVER THE TX
   PANHANDLE. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL APPROACH
   20 MPH. THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF WINDS BREACHING 20 MPH SHOULD LIE
   ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR IN THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. HOWEVER...RECENT
   WELL-ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL/GREENING FUELS LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY OF
   WHETHER A CRITICAL AREA WOULD BE JUSTIFIED.
   
   ...FAR SERN AZ/SWRN NM...
   A BELT OF MODERATE MID-LEVEL SWLYS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE MEXICO
   BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. VERY DEEPLY MIXED THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL
   SUPPORT SUSTAINED SURFACE SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH AT PEAK HEATING.
   THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A SHORT-DURATION MARGINAL THREAT GIVEN RH VALUES
   OF 5 TO 10 PERCENT.
   
   ...ERN MT/FAR WRN ND...
   WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WILL
   RESULT IN RH VALUES DROPPING TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20 PERCENT. MODERATE
   LOW-LEVEL WLYS AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
   SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS FROM 15 TO 20 MPH.
   
   ...CNTRL/SRN FL...
   LOW RH /FROM 25 TO 35 PERCENT/ WILL PERVADE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
   PENINSULA OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE COASTS. THE PRESENCE OF A
   LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHOULD LEAD TO WEAK WINDS /AOB 10 MPH/...AND
   MITIGATE A CRITICAL THREAT.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 04/22/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 220954
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0454 AM CDT WED APR 22 2009
   
   VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SERN NM/WRN TX...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CO RIVER VALLEY IN NWRN AZ/SRN
   NV...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DIG SWD ACROSS
   THE PACIFIC NW INTO NRN CA BY EARLY FRI. A WEAK SRN STREAM IMPULSE
   WILL EJECT EWD FROM THE AZ/SONORA BORDER TOWARDS THE SRN PLAINS.
   LOW/MID-LEVEL W/SWLYS WILL STRENGTHEN IN ADVANCE OF THESE WAVES
   ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND PORTIONS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PORTIONS OF SERN NM/WRN TX...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / VERY LOW RH / MODERATE TO SEVERE
   DROUGHT
   
   CRITICAL CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING MOST OF THU AFTERNOON.
   VERY DEEPLY MIXED THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL AGAIN DEVELOP THU
   AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE 80S TO MIDDLE 90S. RH
   VALUES SHOULD PLUMMET TO NEAR 5 PERCENT. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL FLOW
   WILL REMAIN MODERATE...THE DEEP MIXED LAYER WILL PROMOTE SUSTAINED
   SURFACE WINDS FROM TO 20 TO 25 MPH.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - CO RIVER VALLEY IN NWRN AZ/SRN NV...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / RECENT DRYNESS
   
   A MODERATE DURATION CRITICAL THREAT IS EXPECTED IN THE LATE
   AFTERNOON ON THU. A STRENGTHENING KINEMATIC PROFILE SHOULD RESULT IN
   SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS REACHING 20 MPH AT PEAK HEATING. ALTHOUGH
   UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDINESS SHOULD INCREASE DOWNSTREAM OF THE APPROACHING
   SHORT WAVE TROUGH...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL WARM INTO THE 80S TO
   MIDDLE 90S WITH RH VALUES DROPPING BETWEEN 10 AND 15 PERCENT.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 04/22/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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