Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 230832
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0332 AM CDT THU APR 23 2009
   
   VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CO RIVER VALLEY IN NWRN AZ/SRN
   NV...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   LARGE-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SINK SWD ACROSS THE
   PACIFIC NW INTO NRN CA BY EARLY FRI. A WEAK SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE
   TROUGH WILL EJECT EWD FROM THE AZ/SONORA BORDER TOWARDS THE CNTRL
   RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - CO RIVER VALLEY IN NWRN AZ/SRN NV...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / RECENT DRYNESS
   
   LOW/MID-LEVEL W/SWLYS WILL STRENGTHEN IN ADVANCE OF SHORT WAVE
   TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE PACIFIC NW. SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
   SHOULD REACH 20 TO 25 MPH AT PEAK HEATING. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL
   CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
   STILL WARM INTO THE 80S TO MIDDLE 90S WITH RH VALUES DROPPING
   BETWEEN 10 AND 15 PERCENT.
   
   ...SERN NM/SWRN TX...
   LATEST MODEL FORECASTS HAVE TRENDED SWD WITH THE TRACK OF A SHORT
   WAVE TROUGH EJECTING FROM THE AZ/SONORA BORDER REGION. AS SUCH...THE
   BELT OF MODERATE MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD PRIMARILY REMAIN S OF THE
   CONUS ACROSS CHIHUAHUA. DESPITE VERY DEEPLY MIXED THERMODYNAMIC
   PROFILES /WITH SURFACE RH VALUES AROUND 10 PERCENT/...SUSTAINED
   SURFACE WINDS ARE NOW EXPECTED TO HOLD AOB 20 MPH. MODEST FORCED
   ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
   SUPPORT ISOLATED DRY TSTMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN TX.
   
   ...NWRN TX...
   LOCALIZED/SHORT-DURATION CRITICAL CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS ON THE FRINGE OF RICHER LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTURE RETURNING NWD. STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL EXIST WHERE
   MOISTURE IS MORE ROBUST AND WEAKEN WITH WRN EXTENT. A NARROW AXIS OF
   SUSTAINED SURFACE SPEEDS AROUND 20 MPH MAY BE JUXTAPOSED WITH RH
   VALUES FALLING TO BETWEEN 15 TO 20 PERCENT AT PEAK HEATING. 
   
   ...PORTIONS OF THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS...
   WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE PREVALENT FROM SERN WY/NEB
   PANHANDLE NEWD INTO ERN SD/SWRN MN. THE TIGHTEST SURFACE PRESSURE
   GRADIENT AND CONSEQUENTLY STRONGEST SURFACE WINDS /SUSTAINED FROM 25
   TO 30 MPH/ WILL LIE ACROSS THE MID-MO RIVER VALLEY TO THE COTEAU DES
   PRAIRIES PLATEAU. HOWEVER...RH VALUES SHOULD ONLY BECOME MARGINALLY
   LOW /FROM 20 TO 30 PERCENT/ AS A POOL OF UPSTREAM LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
   OVER KS IS ADVECTED N/NEWD. FARTHER WEST OVER WRN NEB/SERN WY...LOW
   RH /FROM 15 TO 20 PERCENT/ WILL BE MORE PERVASIVE ALTHOUGH WINDS
   SHOULD BE MORE MODERATE. IN ADDITION...WELL-ABOVE NORMAL
   PRECIPITATION DURING THE PAST WEEK SHOULD HELP MITIGATE THE OVERALL
   THREAT IN THIS REGION.
   
   ...S FL...
   CRITICALLY LOW RH SHOULD AGAIN OCCUR ACROSS MOST OF THE INTERIOR AND
   WRN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OWING
   TO PRESENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS. SLIGHTLY STRONGER ELY FLOW
   SHOULD EXIST ACROSS S FL WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10 MPH.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 04/23/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 230956
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0456 AM CDT THU APR 23 2009
   
   VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ERN AZ...CNTRL/SRN NM...WRN TX/OK
   PANHANDLE...SERN CO...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CO RIVER VALLEY OF NWRN AZ/SRN
   NV...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SWRN FL PENINSULA...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   LARGE-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DIG ACROSS THE WRN
   CONUS...BECOMING CENTERED FROM THE NRN ROCKIES TO GREAT BASIN BY
   EARLY SAT. LEE CYCLONE WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE CO/KS BORDER WITH AN
   ATTENDANT DRYLINE MIXING EWD ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. IN THE
   SOUTHEAST...LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT NWD FROM NRN FL TO THE
   CAROLINAS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - ERN AZ...CNTRL/SRN NM...WRN TX/OK
   PANHANDLE...SERN CO...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / RECENT
   DRYNESS
   
   A STRENGTHENING KINEMATIC PROFILE AMIDST A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY
   LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS AROUND 20 MPH
   BECOMING COMMON BY PEAK HEATING. SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS TO NEAR 25 
   MPH SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS NERN AZ AND NERN NM/SERN CO/WRN TX AND OK
   PANHANDLES. CRITICALLY LOW RH WILL BE WIDESPREAD THROUGHOUT THE
   REGION WITH VALUES OF 5 TO 15 PERCENT.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - CO RIVER VALLEY OF NWRN AZ/SRN NV...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / RECENT DRYNESS
   
   BELT OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL W/SWLYS WILL BECOME CENTERED ACROSS THE SRN
   GREAT BASIN FRI AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SUSTAINED SURFACE
   SPEEDS FROM 25 TO 30 MPH APPEAR LIKELY. ALTHOUGH SOME DEGREE OF
   MOISTENING IS EXPECTED COMPARED TO THU...RH VALUES SHOULD STILL
   BECOME MARGINALLY LOW /AROUND 15 PERCENT/.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SWRN FL PENINSULA...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: MODERATE WINDS / LOW RH / HIGH KBDI
   
   LOW-LEVEL ELYS WILL STRENGTHEN AS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS N OF THE REGION.
   SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD REACH 15 MPH. DESPITE THE INCREASE IN ELY
   FLOW...BELOW-NORMAL PW VALUES AND NEARLY FULL INSOLATION SHOULD
   RESULT IN SURFACE RH VALUES FROM 30 TO 35 PERCENT.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 04/23/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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