Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 240836
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0336 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2009
   
   VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF ERN AZ...CNTRL/SRN
   NM...WRN TX/OK PANHANDLE...SERN CO...SWRN KS...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE CO RIVER VALLEY OF
   NWRN AZ/SRN NV...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE INTERIOR/WRN HALF OF
   CNTRL-SOUTH FL...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WRN U.S. UPPER TROUGH
   SAGGING SLOWLY SWD AND A DEPARTING CYCLONE INVOF THE CANADIAN
   MARITIMES WITH AN ATTENDANT TROUGH EXTENDING SWD INTO THE WRN
   ATLANTIC.  IN BETWEEN...A SERIES OF EMBEDDED WEAK PERTURBATIONS ARE
   TRAVERSING THROUGH A GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE CNTRL
   U.S.  SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE INVOF THE
   NRN GREAT BASIN EXTENDING NEWD TO THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND THESE
   FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO SLIDE SWD DURING THE PERIOD AS A DRYLINE
   BECOMES BETTER DEFINED IN THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.  FURTHER E...HIGH
   PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE FL AND PARTS OF THE SERN STATES.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PARTS OF ERN AZ...CNTRL/SRN NM...WRN
   TX/OK PANHANDLE...SERN CO...SWRN KS...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / RECENT
   DRYNESS
   
   MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE WIND PROFILES WILL STRENGTHEN
   WITH TIME AS ELONGATED LARGE SCALE WRN U.S. TROUGH APPROACHES
   REGION.  ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS WEAKER GRADIENT FLOW OVER SRN
   PORTIONS OF THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES SAMPLED BY
   00Z/24 AREA RAOBS WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE ENTIRE
   AREA...PROMOTING DEEP MIXING.  AS SUCH...SUSTAINED SWLY/S AROUND 20
   MPH WILL BE COMMON BY LATE AFTERNOON.  CORRIDORS OF STRONGER
   SUSTAINED WINDS /25 MPH/ WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER NERN AZ WITH A
   SECOND FAVORED AREA W OF THE DRYLINE OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL/SRN
   HIGH PLAINS WHERE HIGHER GUSTS /AROUND 30 MPH/ WILL BE PROBABLE. 
   CRITICALLY LOW RH WILL BE WIDESPREAD THROUGHOUT THE REGION WITH
   VALUES OF 5 TO 15 PERCENT.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PARTS OF THE CO RIVER VALLEY OF NWRN
   AZ/SRN NV...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / RECENT DRYNESS
   
   AS 70 KT H5 FLOW OVERSPREADS THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY BY 00Z/25 IN
   ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...STRONG LOWER TROPESPHERIC
   W/SWLYS WILL BECOME CENTERED ACROSS THE SRN GREAT BASIN FRI
   AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  MODEL SOUNDINGS AND ENSEMBLE DATA
   SUGGEST SUSTAINED SURFACE SPEEDS FROM 25 TO 30 MPH ARE LIKELY. 
   ALTHOUGH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED...RH VALUES
   SHOULD STILL BECOME MARGINALLY LOW /AROUND 15 PERCENT/.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PARTS OF THE INTERIOR/WRN HALF OF
   CNTRL-SOUTH FL...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: MODERATE WINDS / LOW RH / VERY HIGH KBDI
   
   LOW-LEVEL ELYS WILL STRENGTHEN ON SRN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE
   DOME CENTERED FURTHER N AND E.  LATEST 4KM RESOLUTION MODELS DEPICT
   THE STRONGEST SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS TO BE GENERALLY NEAR AND S OF
   THE I-4 CORRIDOR WITH VALUES AROUND 15 MPH COMMON OVER THE
   HIGHLIGHTED REGION.  ADDITIONALLY...A MODEST BELT OF STRONGER H85
   FLOW /25 MPH/ WILL GENERALLY BE ALONG/S OF ALLIGATOR ALLEY...WITH
   THE STRONGEST GUSTS EXPECTED OVER SRN AREAS.  AMPLE HEATING UNDER
   MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ENABLE SHALLOW NEAR-SURFACE MOIST LAYER TO
   MIX SUBSTANTIALLY...RESULTING IN RH IN THE UPPER 20S TO 35 PERCENT
   DURING THE AFTERNOON.
   
   ..SMITH.. 04/24/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 240954
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0454 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2009
   
   VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SERN AZ / MUCH OF
   CNTRL-SRN NM / WRN TX...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE INTERIOR/WRN HALF OF
   CNTRL FL...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE WRN STATES WITH AN
   UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ERN U.S.  A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT EWD
   FROM THE SRN GREAT BASIN TO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD.
    A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD OVER THE SRN ROCKIES.  A SURFACE
   LOW WILL DEVELOP AT THE INTERSECTION OF A NEARLY STALLED FRONTAL
   BOUNDARY DRAPED SW-NE ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND A N-S ORIENTED
   DRYLINE OVER THE TX PANHANDLE.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE
   CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SERN U.S...INCLUDING FL.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PARTS OF SERN AZ / MUCH OF CNTRL-SRN
   NM / WRN TX...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: MODERATELY STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / RECENT
   DRYNESS
   
   LOWER LEVEL KINEMATIC PROFILES WILL STRENGTHEN AS UPPER DISTURBANCE
   APPROACHES WITH 700 MB FLOW RANGING FROM 25-35 KTS OVER THE REGION
   BY 00Z.  LATEST DETERMINISTIC SUITE SHOWS VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES TO BE PRESENT DURING PEAK HEATING AS TEMPS WARM INTO THE
   80S/90S AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT AND BEHIND THE DRYLINE. 
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST RH WILL LIKELY BE VERY LOW...WITH VALUES
   IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WIDESPREAD OVER ERN AREAS WITH UPPER SINGLE
   DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS LIKELY FARTHER W AND N.  SUSTAINED WINDS WILL
   GENERALLY APPROACH THE 20-25 MPH RANGE...BUT HIGHER GUSTS ARE
   PROBABLE...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN NM AND PARTS OF WRN TX WHERE DEEP
   BOUNDARY LAYER CIRCULATIONS ARE MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PARTS OF THE INTERIOR/WRN HALF OF
   CNTRL FL...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: MODERATELY STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / VERY HIGH
   KBDI
   
   MODEST LOWER TROPESPHERIC FLOW WILL PERSIST ON SRN PERIPHERY OF HIGH
   PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC.  SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN
   MOISTURE QUALITY IS POSSIBLE...EVIDENT IN COMPARING D1 VS. D2
   BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILES OVER THE FL PENINSULA.  HOWEVER...RH IS
   STILL EXPECTED TO DROP TO CRITICAL LEVELS /30-35 PERCENT/ ACROSS
   PARTS OF THE WRN FL PENINSULA AND NRN INTERIOR FL /I.E. N OF HIGHER
   MOISTURE TRAJECTORIES LOCATED OVER THE SRN PENINSULA/.  THE PRESSURE
   GRADIENT WILL BECOME MORE RELAXED WITH NWD EXTENT...LEADING TO
   SUSTAINED ELY WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH CONFINED TO
   MAINLY CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA.
   
   ...PARTS OF THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND NRN AZ...
   STRONG WSWLY SURFACE WINDS MAY ONCE AGAIN OCCUR OVER THE REGION IN
   WAKE OF DEPARTING UPPER DISTURBANCE WITH SPEEDS AROUND 25 MPH
   POSSIBLE.  MARGINAL CRITICAL RH SEEMS PROBABLE WITH VALUES AS LOW AS
   THE UPPER TEENS IN AREAS...DESPITE COOLER MAX TEMPS SAT.  WILL DEFER
   POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO CRITICAL DESIGNATION FOR PARTS OF THIS REGION IN
   A LATER UPDATE IF MARGINAL RH AND STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE
   JUXTAPOSED.
   
   ..SMITH.. 04/24/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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