Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 250837
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0337 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2009
   
   VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ERN AZ / MUCH OF CNTRL-SRN NM /
   WRN TX...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE INTERIOR/WRN HALF OF
   CNTRL/SWRN FL PENINSULA...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   00Z/25 UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTED A CLOSED LOW OVER NRN CA WITH
   UPPER RIDGING ENVELOPING MUCH OF THE ERN U.S.  THE W COAST FEATURE
   WILL SLIDE SEWD TOWARDS THE UT/AZ BORDER BY 00Z/26 AND DEAMPLIFY
   INTO A MID-LEVEL TROUGH BEFORE EJECTING EWD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH
   PLAINS.  AT THE LOW LEVELS...A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD OVER
   THE SRN ROCKIES AND A LEE CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SRN HIGH
   PLAINS NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
   SW-NE ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND A N-S ORIENTED
   DRYLINE OVER THE TX PANHANDLE.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE
   CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SERN U.S...INCLUDING FL.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - ERN AZ / MUCH OF CNTRL-SRN NM / WRN
   TX...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: MODERATELY STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / RECENT
   DRYNESS
   
   AS UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES...STRENGTHENING WINDS ALOFT /700 MB
   30-45 KTS OVER THE REGION BY 00Z/ WILL PARTLY AID IN STRENGTHENING
   SURFACE WINDS TODAY.  NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES OVER REGION
   /ABQ 00Z/25 RAOB/ WILL BE VERY CONDUCIVE FOR DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER
   MIXING DURING PEAK HEATING AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT AND
   BEHIND THE DRYLINE.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE RH WILL
   BE VERY LOW...WITH VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WIDESPREAD OVER ERN
   AREAS WITH UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS LIKELY FARTHER W AND
   N.  SUSTAINED WINDS WILL GENERALLY APPROACH THE 20-25 MPH
   RANGE...BUT HIGHER GUSTS ARE PROBABLE IN THE 30-35 MPH
   RANGE...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN NM AND PARTS OF WRN TX WHERE DEEP
   BOUNDARY LAYER CIRCULATIONS ARE MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PARTS OF THE INTERIOR/WRN HALF OF
   CNTRL/SWRN FL PENINSULA...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: MODERATELY STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / VERY HIGH
   KBDI
   
   EARLY MORNING GOES SATELLITE SOUNDING PRECIPITABLE WATER DATA SHOW
   THE NRN PERIPHERY OF A MORE RICH/HIGHER QUALITY MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS
   THE CNTRL/SRN BAHAMAS.  A SLUG OF THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
   TRAVERSE MAINLY SRN PORTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA ACCORDING TO PLAN
   VIEW 925-850 MB PROGNOSTIC DATA.  AS SUCH...EXPECTING SOME SLIGHT
   IMPROVEMENT IN MINIMUM RH MAGNITUDE TODAY WITH RH AROUND 35 PERCENT
   IN SRN PORTIONS OF THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA WITH VALUES NEAR 30 PERCENT
   FARTHER N.  WITH HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC AND
   APPROACHING SYSTEM OVER THE SRN ROCKIES...A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT
   WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS CNTRL/SRN FL WITH SUSTAINED ELY WINDS
   AROUND 15 MPH...WARRANTING A CRITICAL DESIGNATION.
   
   ...PARTS OF THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND SWRN AZ...
   LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
   CO RIVER VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  LATEST MODEL OUTPUT
   APPEARS SOMEWHAT UNSUPPORTIVE OF STRONG SUSTAINED BOUNDARY LAYER
   WINDS DUE IN PART TO SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
   MOVING EWD OVER THE AREA EARLY IN THE DAY.  THIS WILL IN TURN CREATE
   A SIZEABLE NEAR ISOTHERMAL LAYER AOA 700 MB ACCORDING TO FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS AND MAY ACT TO CONTAIN STRONGER MOMENTUM ALOFT. 
   NONETHELESS...MODERATE WSWLY SURFACE WINDS MAY DEVELOP WITH SPEEDS
   AROUND 20 MPH POSSIBLE WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  CRITICALLY LOW RH SEEMS
   PROBABLE WITH VALUES AS LOW AS THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS...DESPITE
   COOLER MAX TEMPS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
   
   ..SMITH.. 04/25/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 250938
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0438 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2009
   
   VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR LARGE PART OF SERN HALF OF NM /
   PARTS OF WRN TX...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA AS OF EARLY
   MORNING SATURDAY WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AT THE
   START OF THE PERIOD BEFORE LIFTING NEWD TOWARDS THE UPPER MIDWEST BY
   MONDAY MORNING.  ANOTHER IMPULSE WILL DIVE SEWD ON BACKSIDE OF MEAN
   UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN STATES TOWARDS THE ERN GREAT BASIN. 
   FURTHER E...EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
   INFLUENCE CONDITIONS OVER THE SERN QUARTER OF THE U.S.  ANOTHER LEE
   CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP INVOF THE OK/TX PANHANDLE ON TRAILING PERIPHERY
   OF DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NRN PLAINS BY SUNDAY EVENING WITH
   AN ATTENDANT DRYLINE REMAINING SOMEWHAT FIXED OVER THE SRN HIGH
   PLAINS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - LARGE PART OF SERN HALF OF NM /
   PARTS OF WRN TX...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: LOW RH / MODERATELY STRONG WINDS / RECENT
   DRYNESS
   
   A DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED COMPARED
   TO SATURDAY OVER PARTS OF THE SWRN DESERTS INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS
   ...DUE IN PART TO WEAKENING FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION.  WITH THAT
   SAID...LATEST DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE DATA CONTINUE TO INDICATE
   POCKETS OF SUSTAINED WINDS AOA 20 MPH AND CRITICALLY LOW RH BELOW 15
   PERCENT OVER THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA.  LOCALIZED AREAS W OF THE DRYLINE
   IN E-CNTRL NM...IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO DEPARTING DISTURBANCE/SPEED
   MAX...MAY EXPERIENCE SUSTAINED WINDS APPROACHING 25 MPH WITH GUSTS
   UP TO 35 MPH.
   
   ...WRN HALF OF CNTRL AND SWRN FL PENINSULA...
   AS UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER CNTRL U.S. LIFTS AWAY FROM REGION...A
   SEEMINGLY MORE RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PROBABLY RESULT.  ELY
   WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 15 MPH ARE EXPECTED...AS LATEST FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A DECREASE IN OVERALL WINDS SPEEDS.  CONTINUED
   MODIFICATION OF MOISTURE WITH TRAJECTORIES OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC
   ALSO SIGNALS PERHAPS SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN THE MAGNITUDE OF MIN RH
   /GENERALLY AROUND 35 PERCENT/.  IF TRENDS IN MODEL DATA REVERSE AND
   SLIGHTLY STRONGER SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED...AN UPGRADE TO
   CRITICAL MAY BE WARRANTED.
   
   ..SMITH.. 04/25/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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