Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 260854
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0354 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2009
   
   VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SERN HALF OF NM / WRN TX / TX-OK
   PANHANDLES...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED
   WITHIN LARGE-SCALE TROUGH OVER THE WRN STATES WITH NOTABLE SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH ELONGATED FROM THE CNTRL ROCKIES SWWD TO AZ/SONORA MEXICO. 
   THE SRN EXTENT OF THIS FEATURE WILL SWEEP E AND BE LOCATED OVER WRN
   TX BY 00Z/27.  LEE SURFACE CYCLONE WILL BE LOCATED INVOF THE OK/TX
   PANHANDLES ON TRAILING PERIPHERY OF DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
   NRN PLAINS BY SUNDAY EVENING.  CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
   EXPECTED OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS W OF AN EWD SURGING DRYLINE.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SERN HALF OF NM / WRN TX / TX-OK
   PANHANDLES...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: LOW RH / STRONG WINDS / RECENT DRYNESS
   
   APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SW WILL RAPIDLY MOVE
   EWD ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS DURING PEAK HEATING.  MODESTLY STRONG
   FLOW FIELDS ALOFT ALONG WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN ASSOCIATION
   WITH THIS FEATURE WILL PROMOTE FAIRLY DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
   PROFILES...SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOW TO VERY LOW RH
   IN LOCALES.  STRONGEST 700 MB FLOW /35 MPH/ WILL LIKELY BE SHUNTED
   FARTHER E AND N OVER THE HIGHLIGHTED REGION...WHERE WINDS ARE
   ANTICIPATED TO BE STRONGEST CLOSER TO DEPARTING MID-LEVEL JET CORE
   OVER THE N-CNTRL PLAINS.  AS SUCH...SUSTAINED WINDS WILL RANGE FROM
   AROUND 20 UP TO 30 MPH OVER THE REGION WITH HIGHER GUSTS PROBABLY
   OVER THE TX CAPROCK.  MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIN RH MAY
   FALL INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS E...WITH TEENS W.
   
   LATEST TRENDS IN MODEL DATA SUGGEST A FURTHER EWD PLACEMENT OF
   CRITICAL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THAN PREVIOUSLY
   ANTICIPATED.  EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS AND GOES SATELLITE
   PRECIPITABLE WATER DATA SHOW A RATHER MOIST AIRMASS /DEWPOINTS NEAR
   60 F/ HAS RETREATED WWD ACROSS MUCH OF NWRN TX AND PARTS OF THE TX
   PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT.  HOWEVER...EXPECTING THE DRYLINE TO SURGE EWD
   ACROSS THE TX SOUTH PLAINS AND MOST OF THE TX PANHANDLE WHICH IS
   SUPPORTED BY 00Z DETERMINISTIC SUITE AND MULTIPLE 4KM RESOLUTION
   MODEL DATA.  AS A RESULT...HAVE DELINEATED AREAS FARTHER E THAN THE
   PREVIOUS D2 OUTLOOK.
   
   ...WRN HALF OF CNTRL FL PENINSULA...
   AS UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER CNTRL U.S. LIFTS AWAY FROM REGION...A
   SEEMINGLY MORE RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PROBABLY RESULT. 
   LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SUSTAINED ELY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE AOB
   15 MPH BUT GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.  WITH CONTINUED
   MODIFICATION OF AIRMASS ON SRN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER WRN
   ATLANTIC...SIGNALS PERHAPS SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN THE MAGNITUDE OF
   MIN RH /GENERALLY AROUND 35 PERCENT IN LOCALIZED AREAS/ BUT
   ATTM...EXPECTING ONLY BRIEF DURATION OF CRITICAL RH ALONG WITH
   MARGINAL NATURE OF SUSTAINED WINDS.
   
   ..SMITH.. 04/26/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 260938
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0438 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2009
   
   VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ALONG THE W COAST
   WILL AID IN REINFORCING LARGER SCALE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN
   STATES.  DISTURBANCE OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES WILL PHASE WITH ANOTHER
   IMPULSE EJECTING NEWD OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS.  FURTHER E...UPPER
   RIDGE OVER THE CAROLINA/DELMARVA ADJACENT GULF STREAM AREA WILL
   REMAIN FIXED THROUGH THE D2 PERIOD.
   
   ...SRN NV / NWRN AZ...
   AS DISTURBANCE FROM THE PACIFIC NW APPROACHES THE
   REGION...STRENGTHENING FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO MODERATE SUSTAINED
   SURFACE WINDS /GENERALLY AROUND 20 MPH/ OVER PARTS OF THE SRN GREAT
   BASIN.  LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE
   DATA INDICATE RH MAY FALL INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS DURING PEAK HEATING.
   
   ..SMITH.. 04/26/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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