Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 270815
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0315 AM CDT MON APR 27 2009
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE WRN HALF OF CNTRL AND
SWRN FL PENINSULA...
...SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ARE EVIDENT PER EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN
STATES. LEAD NRN STREAM IMPULSE OFF THE OREGON/NRN CA COAST AND
MORE SUBTLE SRN STREAM IMPULSE LOCATED 400 MI W OF POINT CONCEPTION
IN THE ERN PACIFIC --AS OF 08Z/27-- WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT
BASIN REGION DURING THE DAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP TO THE LEE
OF THE SIERRA NEVADA IN RESPONSE TO NRN STREAM IMPULSE AND
EQUATORWARD UPPER SPEED MAXIMA OFF THE PACIFIC NW AND A
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ENSUE OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
FURTHER E...UPPER RIDGE AND 1032 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
CAROLINA-ADJACENT GULF STREAM WATERS WILL REMAIN FIXED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PARTS OF THE WRN HALF OF CNTRL AND
SWRN FL PENINSULA...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: MODERATELY STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / VERY HIGH
KBDI
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A CONTINUATION OF SUPPORTIVE FIRE
WEATHER ACROSS A LOCALIZED AREA IN W-CNTRL AND SWRN INTERIOR FL.
MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY BE MAINTAINED OVER REGION WITH
MODERATELY STRONG ELY WINDS AROUND 15 MPH /GUSTS APPROACHING 25 MPH
IN LOCALIZED AREAS MAINLY OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE DEPICTED AREA/.
MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR EXPECTED HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S
INDICATE RH WILL PROBABLY FALL INTO THE 30-35 PERCENT RANGE.
...SRN NV / NWRN AZ...
AS DISTURBANCE FROM THE PACIFIC NW APPROACHES THE
REGION...STRENGTHENING FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO MODERATE SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS /GENERALLY AROUND 20 MPH/ OVER PARTS OF THE SRN GREAT
BASIN. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE
DATA INDICATE MIN RH MAY FALL GENERALLY INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS DURING
PEAK HEATING.
..SMITH.. 04/27/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 270954
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0454 AM CDT MON APR 27 2009
VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN STATES WILL DEAMPLIFY AND
ELONGATE OVER THE PACIFIC NW BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. SEVERAL LOW
AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS THE SWRN STATES INTO THE
PLAINS STATES. UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE SERN
U.S. AT THE SURFACE...DRYLINE/MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY WILL ESTABLISH
ITSELF FURTHER W INTO FAR ERN NM AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED OVER
THE S-CNTRL PLAINS RETREATS NWD TO DEVELOPING LEE CYCLONE INVOF THE
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
...WRN HALF OF THE CNTRL AND SWRN FL PENINSULA...
IT APPEARS A CONTINUATION OF LOWER RH MAY OCCUR AGAIN DURING PEAK
HEATING. HOWEVER...LATEST DETERMINISTIC CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE ELY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL RELAX BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN ONLY MODEST SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS UNDER 15 MPH...PRECLUDING A
GREATER OVERALL THREAT.
...SRN UT/NRN AZ...
AS EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE PACIFIC NW...INCREASING LOWER TO MID-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE AND OVERSPREAD PARTS OF NRN AZ AND SRN UT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 25 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ANTECEDENTLY DRY AIRMASS WILL FAVOR
MIN RH FALLING INTO THE TEENS DURING PEAK HEATING. AFTER
COORDINATION WITH LOCAL OFFICE...FUEL READINESS APPEARS UNFAVORABLE
ATTM.
...S-CNTRL NM...
MODEL OUTPUT DEPICTS A LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE SKIRTING ENEWD
ACROSS THE DESERT SW ON TUESDAY. A STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT
WILL COMBINE WITH A DRY AIRMASS TO PROMOTE RH VALUES PERHAPS FALLING
AS LOW AS THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. MODERATELY
STRONG SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS /AROUND 20 MPH/ MAY DEVELOP AS WELL.
HOWEVER...SOMEWHAT BENIGN 700 MB FLOW /20 KTS/ SEEMS TO SUPPORT A
LIMITED OVERALL THREAT FOR HIGH WINDS OVER THE AREA.
..SMITH.. 04/27/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...