Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 270815
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0315 AM CDT MON APR 27 2009
   
   VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE WRN HALF OF CNTRL AND
   SWRN FL PENINSULA...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ARE EVIDENT PER EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY
   ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN
   STATES.  LEAD NRN STREAM IMPULSE OFF THE OREGON/NRN CA COAST AND
   MORE SUBTLE SRN STREAM IMPULSE LOCATED 400 MI W OF POINT CONCEPTION
   IN THE ERN PACIFIC --AS OF 08Z/27-- WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT
   BASIN REGION DURING THE DAY.  A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP TO THE LEE
   OF THE SIERRA NEVADA IN RESPONSE TO NRN STREAM IMPULSE AND
   EQUATORWARD UPPER SPEED MAXIMA OFF THE PACIFIC NW AND A
   STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ENSUE OVER THE GREAT BASIN. 
   FURTHER E...UPPER RIDGE AND 1032 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
   CAROLINA-ADJACENT GULF STREAM WATERS WILL REMAIN FIXED THROUGH THE
   PERIOD.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PARTS OF THE WRN HALF OF CNTRL AND
   SWRN FL PENINSULA...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: MODERATELY STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / VERY HIGH
   KBDI
   
   LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A CONTINUATION OF SUPPORTIVE FIRE
   WEATHER ACROSS A LOCALIZED AREA IN W-CNTRL AND SWRN INTERIOR FL. 
   MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY BE MAINTAINED OVER REGION WITH
   MODERATELY STRONG ELY WINDS AROUND 15 MPH /GUSTS APPROACHING 25 MPH
   IN LOCALIZED AREAS MAINLY OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE DEPICTED AREA/. 
   MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR EXPECTED HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S
   INDICATE RH WILL PROBABLY FALL INTO THE 30-35 PERCENT RANGE.
   
   ...SRN NV / NWRN AZ...
   AS DISTURBANCE FROM THE PACIFIC NW APPROACHES THE
   REGION...STRENGTHENING FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO MODERATE SUSTAINED
   SURFACE WINDS /GENERALLY AROUND 20 MPH/ OVER PARTS OF THE SRN GREAT
   BASIN.  LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE
   DATA INDICATE MIN RH MAY FALL GENERALLY INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS DURING
   PEAK HEATING.
   
   ..SMITH.. 04/27/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 270954
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0454 AM CDT MON APR 27 2009
   
   VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN STATES WILL DEAMPLIFY AND
   ELONGATE OVER THE PACIFIC NW BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  SEVERAL LOW
   AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS THE SWRN STATES INTO THE
   PLAINS STATES.  UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE SERN
   U.S.  AT THE SURFACE...DRYLINE/MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY WILL ESTABLISH
   ITSELF FURTHER W INTO FAR ERN NM AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED OVER
   THE S-CNTRL PLAINS RETREATS NWD TO DEVELOPING LEE CYCLONE INVOF THE
   CNTRL HIGH PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
   
   ...WRN HALF OF THE CNTRL AND SWRN FL PENINSULA...
   IT APPEARS A CONTINUATION OF LOWER RH MAY OCCUR AGAIN DURING PEAK
   HEATING.  HOWEVER...LATEST DETERMINISTIC CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE ELY
   BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL RELAX BY TUESDAY.  THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT
   IN ONLY MODEST SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS UNDER 15 MPH...PRECLUDING A
   GREATER OVERALL THREAT.
   
   ...SRN UT/NRN AZ...
   AS EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
   OVER THE PACIFIC NW...INCREASING LOWER TO MID-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS WILL
   ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE AND OVERSPREAD PARTS OF NRN AZ AND SRN UT
   TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 25 MPH ARE
   POSSIBLE...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ANTECEDENTLY DRY AIRMASS WILL FAVOR
   MIN RH FALLING INTO THE TEENS DURING PEAK HEATING.  AFTER
   COORDINATION WITH LOCAL OFFICE...FUEL READINESS APPEARS UNFAVORABLE
   ATTM.
   
   ...S-CNTRL NM...
   MODEL OUTPUT DEPICTS A LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE SKIRTING ENEWD
   ACROSS THE DESERT SW ON TUESDAY.  A STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT
   WILL COMBINE WITH A DRY AIRMASS TO PROMOTE RH VALUES PERHAPS FALLING
   AS LOW AS THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.  MODERATELY
   STRONG SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS /AROUND 20 MPH/ MAY DEVELOP AS WELL. 
   HOWEVER...SOMEWHAT BENIGN 700 MB FLOW /20 KTS/ SEEMS TO SUPPORT A
   LIMITED OVERALL THREAT FOR HIGH WINDS OVER THE AREA.
   
   ..SMITH.. 04/27/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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