Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 280854
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0354 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2009
   
   VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH
   OVER THE WRN STATES WITH AN IMPULSE OVER NRN CA/WRN NV.  THIS LOW
   AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND SHEAR EWD AS LARGER
   SCALE TROUGH DE-AMPLIFIES AND ELONGATES W-E OVER THE PACIFIC NW
   REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER RIDGE OVER
   THE WRN ATLANTIC WILL INFLUENCE CONDITIONS OVER THE SERN STATES
   AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY.  AT THE
   SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EWD ACROSS THE NERN U.S. BUT AHEAD
   OF THIS FEATURE...UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
   COMBINE WITH RECENT DRYNESS...LIKELY RESULTING IN ENHANCED FIRE
   WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
   
   ...MAINE SWWD TO THE DELAWARE RIVER VALLEY...
   TEMPS WILL QUICKLY WARM WELL INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S AS STRONG
   SURFACE HEATING AND SOME DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT CONTRIBUTE TO A
   WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.  RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 30
   PERCENT WITH LOCALIZED AREAS AS LOW AS THE LOW-MIDDLE 20S DURING
   PEAK HEATING.  FAIRLY STRONG 850 MB FLOW /25-35 KTS/ WILL OVERSPREAD
   THE REGION LEADING TO STRONG GUSTY WINDS APPROACHING 35 MPH AT
   TIMES.  HOWEVER...CONTINUED INDICATION BY ENSEMBLE OUTPUT /SUPPORTED
   BY 00Z/28 4 KM WRF MODEL DATA/...SHOW ONLY MODEST SUSTAINED WINDS
   /GENERALLY 15-20 MPH/---TEMPERING AN OTHERWISE GREATER THREAT FOR
   THE REGION.  NONETHELESS...LOCALIZED CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR
   IN SPORADIC AREAS /ESPECIALLY OVER PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND WHERE
   GREATER LOW LEVEL FLOW FIELDS WILL RESIDE ACCORDING TO DETERMINISTIC
   GUIDANCE.  AS SUCH...SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEEDS MAY APPROACH 25
   MPH FOR BRIEF PERIODS.  WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE...A WIND SHIFT FROM
   SWLY TO NWLY WILL OCCUR AND RH RECOVERY WILL COMMENCE.
   
   
   ...WRN HALF OF THE CNTRL AND SWRN FL PENINSULA...
   IT APPEARS A CONTINUATION OF LOWER RH MAY OCCUR AGAIN DURING PEAK
   HEATING.  HOWEVER...LATEST DETERMINISTIC CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE ELY
   BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL RELAX.  THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ONLY
   MODEST SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS UNDER 15 MPH...PRECLUDING A GREATER
   OVERALL THREAT.
   
   ...SRN UTAH/NRN AZ/SRN NV...
   AS EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
   OVER THE GREAT BASIN...INCREASING LOWER TO MID-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS
   WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE WITH THE STRONGEST FLOW OVERSPREADING
   SRN UTAH.  SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE OVER UTAH WITH
   VALUES NEAR 20 MPH TOWARDS LAKE MOJAVE/MEAD...WHERE LOCALIZED
   CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR.  ANTECEDENTLY DRY AIRMASS WILL FAVOR
   MIN RH FALLING INTO THE TEENS DURING PEAK HEATING.  AFTER
   COORDINATION WITH LOCAL OFFICE OVER SRN UTAH...FUEL READINESS
   APPEARS UNFAVORABLE ATTM.
   
   ...S-CNTRL NM...
   STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT TO 600 MB /SAMPLED BY 00Z/28 RAOBS/
   WILL COMBINE WITH A DRY AIRMASS TO PROMOTE RH VALUES PERHAPS FALLING
   AS LOW AS THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.  MODERATELY
   STRONG SURFACE WIND GUSTS MAY DEVELOP /25 MPH/ BUT SUSTAINED WINDS
   /UP TO 20 MPH/ WILL PROBABLY REMAIN TEMPERED DUE IN PART TO MODEST
   700 MB FLOW /20 KTS/.
   
   ..SMITH.. 04/28/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 280953
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0453 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2009
   
   VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A RELATIVELY QUIET FIRE WEATHER PATTERN IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY/D2.  AN
   ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE PACIFIC NW EXTENDING
   INTO THE NRN PLAINS.  SEVERAL EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL SPEED MAXIMA WILL
   MOVE EWD...WITH BELT OF STRONG WLY/S CONFINED TO THE NRN GREAT BASIN
   INTO THE DAKOTAS.  A LOW AMPLITUDE SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
   FROM THE SW DESERTS TO WRN TX BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.  THERE IS SOME
   POTENTIAL /ALBEIT LOW/ FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE
   NM ERN PLAINS REGION.  A FLATTENING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SERN U.S.
   WILL INFLUENCE CONDITIONS OVER FL.  THIS MAY AGAIN LEAD TO LOWER RH
   OVER INTERIOR W-CNTRL FL PENINSULA BUT A RELATIVELY RELAXED PRESSURE
   GRADIENT WILL TEND TO LIMIT STRONG SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND POTENTIAL.
   
   ...NM ERN PLAINS...
   AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES OVERHEAD...AN ACCOMPANYING INCREASE IN
   MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT.  GIVEN ANTECEDENTLY DRY AIRMASS TO THE
   IMMEDIATE W...LOW RH IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IS PROBABLE TO THE W
   BEHIND THE DRYLINE /EXPECTED PLACEMENT OVER THE TX PERMIAN
   BASIN-CAPROCK REGION/.  SUSTAINED SWLY/S MAY APPROACH 20 MPH
   BRIEFLY...BUT LOWER POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER WINDS ALONG WITH SEEMINGLY
   BENIGN 700 MB FLOW /15-20 KTS/ SUGGESTS THE LIKELIHOOD FOR CRITICAL
   CONDITIONS BEING MET ARE SOMEWHAT LOW.
   
   ..SMITH.. 04/28/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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