Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 280854
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0354 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2009
VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE WRN STATES WITH AN IMPULSE OVER NRN CA/WRN NV. THIS LOW
AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND SHEAR EWD AS LARGER
SCALE TROUGH DE-AMPLIFIES AND ELONGATES W-E OVER THE PACIFIC NW
REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE WRN ATLANTIC WILL INFLUENCE CONDITIONS OVER THE SERN STATES
AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EWD ACROSS THE NERN U.S. BUT AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE...UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
COMBINE WITH RECENT DRYNESS...LIKELY RESULTING IN ENHANCED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
...MAINE SWWD TO THE DELAWARE RIVER VALLEY...
TEMPS WILL QUICKLY WARM WELL INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S AS STRONG
SURFACE HEATING AND SOME DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT CONTRIBUTE TO A
WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 30
PERCENT WITH LOCALIZED AREAS AS LOW AS THE LOW-MIDDLE 20S DURING
PEAK HEATING. FAIRLY STRONG 850 MB FLOW /25-35 KTS/ WILL OVERSPREAD
THE REGION LEADING TO STRONG GUSTY WINDS APPROACHING 35 MPH AT
TIMES. HOWEVER...CONTINUED INDICATION BY ENSEMBLE OUTPUT /SUPPORTED
BY 00Z/28 4 KM WRF MODEL DATA/...SHOW ONLY MODEST SUSTAINED WINDS
/GENERALLY 15-20 MPH/---TEMPERING AN OTHERWISE GREATER THREAT FOR
THE REGION. NONETHELESS...LOCALIZED CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR
IN SPORADIC AREAS /ESPECIALLY OVER PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND WHERE
GREATER LOW LEVEL FLOW FIELDS WILL RESIDE ACCORDING TO DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE. AS SUCH...SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEEDS MAY APPROACH 25
MPH FOR BRIEF PERIODS. WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE...A WIND SHIFT FROM
SWLY TO NWLY WILL OCCUR AND RH RECOVERY WILL COMMENCE.
...WRN HALF OF THE CNTRL AND SWRN FL PENINSULA...
IT APPEARS A CONTINUATION OF LOWER RH MAY OCCUR AGAIN DURING PEAK
HEATING. HOWEVER...LATEST DETERMINISTIC CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE ELY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL RELAX. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ONLY
MODEST SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS UNDER 15 MPH...PRECLUDING A GREATER
OVERALL THREAT.
...SRN UTAH/NRN AZ/SRN NV...
AS EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT BASIN...INCREASING LOWER TO MID-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS
WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE WITH THE STRONGEST FLOW OVERSPREADING
SRN UTAH. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE OVER UTAH WITH
VALUES NEAR 20 MPH TOWARDS LAKE MOJAVE/MEAD...WHERE LOCALIZED
CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR. ANTECEDENTLY DRY AIRMASS WILL FAVOR
MIN RH FALLING INTO THE TEENS DURING PEAK HEATING. AFTER
COORDINATION WITH LOCAL OFFICE OVER SRN UTAH...FUEL READINESS
APPEARS UNFAVORABLE ATTM.
...S-CNTRL NM...
STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT TO 600 MB /SAMPLED BY 00Z/28 RAOBS/
WILL COMBINE WITH A DRY AIRMASS TO PROMOTE RH VALUES PERHAPS FALLING
AS LOW AS THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. MODERATELY
STRONG SURFACE WIND GUSTS MAY DEVELOP /25 MPH/ BUT SUSTAINED WINDS
/UP TO 20 MPH/ WILL PROBABLY REMAIN TEMPERED DUE IN PART TO MODEST
700 MB FLOW /20 KTS/.
..SMITH.. 04/28/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 280953
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0453 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2009
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
A RELATIVELY QUIET FIRE WEATHER PATTERN IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY/D2. AN
ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE PACIFIC NW EXTENDING
INTO THE NRN PLAINS. SEVERAL EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL SPEED MAXIMA WILL
MOVE EWD...WITH BELT OF STRONG WLY/S CONFINED TO THE NRN GREAT BASIN
INTO THE DAKOTAS. A LOW AMPLITUDE SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
FROM THE SW DESERTS TO WRN TX BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL /ALBEIT LOW/ FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE
NM ERN PLAINS REGION. A FLATTENING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SERN U.S.
WILL INFLUENCE CONDITIONS OVER FL. THIS MAY AGAIN LEAD TO LOWER RH
OVER INTERIOR W-CNTRL FL PENINSULA BUT A RELATIVELY RELAXED PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TEND TO LIMIT STRONG SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND POTENTIAL.
...NM ERN PLAINS...
AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES OVERHEAD...AN ACCOMPANYING INCREASE IN
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT. GIVEN ANTECEDENTLY DRY AIRMASS TO THE
IMMEDIATE W...LOW RH IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IS PROBABLE TO THE W
BEHIND THE DRYLINE /EXPECTED PLACEMENT OVER THE TX PERMIAN
BASIN-CAPROCK REGION/. SUSTAINED SWLY/S MAY APPROACH 20 MPH
BRIEFLY...BUT LOWER POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER WINDS ALONG WITH SEEMINGLY
BENIGN 700 MB FLOW /15-20 KTS/ SUGGESTS THE LIKELIHOOD FOR CRITICAL
CONDITIONS BEING MET ARE SOMEWHAT LOW.
..SMITH.. 04/28/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...