Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 300841
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0341 AM CDT THU APR 30 2009
   
   VALID 301200Z - 011200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LOW OVER ND AND
   THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD INTO CANADA AS PROGRESSIVE
   STREAM OF HIGHER MOMENTUM WLY/S REMAINS CONFINED TO NRN TIER OF
   STATES.  SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 08Z/30...SHOWS A COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM
   THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS EXTENDING W INTO THE
   CNTRL GREAT BASIN.  THE ERN FRONTAL SEGMENT OVER THE CNTRL CONUS
   WILL PUSH SEWD TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND THE TX PANHANDLE.  A
   SURFACE LOW/TRIPLE POINT FEATURE WILL BE LOCATED ON THE SWRN
   PERIPHERY OF THE FRONT OVER THE PLAINS...WITH ATTENDANT DRYLINE
   EXTENDING SWD INTO THE TX BIG COUNTRY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
   DOMINANT OVER THE SERN U.S.
   
   ...PARTS OF SWRN AND W-CNTRL INTERIOR FL PENINSULA...
   NOT MUCH CHANGE IN WEATHER PATTERN AS SHALLOW ELY FETCH OF SOMEWHAT
   MOIST NEAR SURFACE LAYER QUICKLY MIXES AS BOUNDARY LAYER
   CIRCULATIONS DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO STRONG INSOLATION.  FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS SHOW MIN RH FALLING AS LOW AS THE UPPER 20S WITH VALUES
   AOA 30 PERCENT MORE WIDESPREAD.  BOUNDARY LAYER MEAN FLOW WILL
   REMAIN MODEST /BELOW 15 MPH/ AND THIS WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE
   DURATION OF MODERATE SUSTAINED WINDS /APPROACHING 15 MPH/ BUT GUSTS
   AROUND 20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
   
   ...PARTS OF NWRN CO / UNITA BASIN...
   SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL GLANCE THE AREA TODAY AS
   A 70 KT 500 MB JET CORE MOVES INTO WRN WY BY EVENING.  FRONTAL
   BOUNDARY WILL GENERALLY REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE ERN GREAT
   BASIN/CNTRL ROCKIES AS A SURFACE LOW MEANDERS NEAR THE UT/CO BORDER.
   LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A LOW LEVEL THERMAL/LOW RH RIDGE
   DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM THE LOWER GREEN RIVER VALLEY
   NEWD TOWARDS THE CO DANFORTH HILLS.  NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC 0-3 KM
   LAPSE RATES WILL DEVELOP DURING PEAK HEATING...CONDUCIVE FOR AMPLE
   BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WITH RH FALLING INTO THE TEENS.  SUSTAINED
   WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 15-20 MPH ARE EXPECTED...WITH GUSTS NEAR 30
   MPH AT TIMES.  LOCALIZED CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP INVOF
   SLOTS/CANYONS AND FAVORED TERRAIN AREAS...WHERE LONGER DURATION OF
   SUSTAINED WINDS AOA 20 MPH CAN BE REALIZED.
   
   ..SMITH.. 04/30/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 300951
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0451 AM CDT THU APR 30 2009
   
   VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SPEED MAX WILL MOVE QUICKLY EWD FROM THE
   ERN PACIFIC TOWARDS THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY BY SATURDAY MORNING. 
   FURTHER E...TRAILING BELT OF STRONG WLY/S WILL MIGRATE FROM THE NRN
   ROCKIES TO THE MIDWEST.  IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...SHORTWAVE
   RIDGING WILL OCCUR OVER THE GREAT BASIN/SRN ROCKIES AHEAD OF
   APPROACHING W COAST UPPER TROUGH.  AT THE SURFACE...FRONTAL BOUNDARY
   WILL PUSH EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO THE NERN U.S. WITH THE WRN
   PORTION OF THIS FEATURE PUSHING S OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS BEFORE
   EVENTUALLY STALLING OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.  HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
   WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE WRN ATLANTIC EXTENDING WWD INTO
   THE FL PENINSULA.
   
   ...PARTS OF SRN NV AND THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...
   LATEST DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT SHOWS INCREASING KINEMATIC FIELDS OVER
   THE REGION AS APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE W NEARS THE CA COAST BY
   FRIDAY EVENING.  SUBSTANTIAL VARIABILITY EXISTS IN THE STRENGTH OF
   700 MB FLOW OVER THE AREA BY 00Z/02 ACCORDING TO MODEL DATA...WHICH
   IS PARTLY A FUNCTION OF SYSTEM TIMING/INTENSITY.  00Z/30 ECMWF SHOWS
   35 KTS-700 MB WHEREAS GFS/NAM/ETAKF SOLUTIONS ARE WEAKER.  WITH THAT
   SAID...ANTECEDENTLY LOW RH IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA WITH VALUES
   BELOW 15 PERCENT PROBABLE.  ATTM...SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 20 MPH ARE
   ANTICIPATED AROUND 00Z/30...BUT MAY POTENTIALLY BE HIGHER IF
   AFOREMENTIONED CAVEATS ARE NEGATED OR LESSEN APPRECIABLY.  WILL
   WITHHOLD A CRITICAL DESIGNATION FOR THE TIME BEING DUE TO ADDITIONAL
   CONCERNS REGARDING SHORT DURATION OF POTENTIAL CRITICAL CONDITIONS.
   
   ..SMITH.. 04/30/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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