Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 010647
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0147 AM CDT FRI MAY 01 2009
   
   VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW WILL CHARACTERIZE THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER
   THE S CNTRL-SERN CONUS TODAY...WHILE SHORT WAVE RIDGING TAKES PLACE
   OVER THE WRN-SWRN STATES AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A VERY WARM
   LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WILL RESIDE FROM PARTS OF SRN NV-LWR CO RIVER
   VALLEY INTO W TX...WHERE ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN
   VERY LOW RH VALUES. SURFACE WINDS BENEATH AND AHEAD OF THE
   DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT...WITH ONLY
   LOCALIZED AND BRIEF PERIODS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
   EXPECTED.
   
   ...PARTS OF SRN NV AND THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...
   MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
   AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE CA COAST...BUT
   DAYTIME HIGHS ARE STILL FORECAST TO CLIMB THROUGH THE 80S AND 90S.
   THE HOT AIRMASS COMBINED WITH PRE-EXISTING LOW SURFACE DEWPOINTS
   WILL FAVOR RH VALUES IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS /THOUGH THIS MAY
   BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY MIXING OF HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT ALOFT/.
   UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY...WHICH MAY
   RESULT IN GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH. HOWEVER...SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE
   EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS DURING THE DAYTIME
   HOURS. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SPEEDS MAY INCREASE TO 20 MPH
   AFTER SUNSET...BUT RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO RECOVER WITH THE LOSS OF
   DAYTIME HEATING.
   
   ...GUADALUPE MTNS OF FAR W TX AND SERN NM...
   SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 35 MPH WERE OBSERVED AT KGDP /GUADALUPE
   PASS/ DURING MID TO LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON /APRIL 30TH/...WITH
   TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS NEAR 0 DEG F /YIELDING RH
   VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS/. THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN AND SURFACE
   CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CHANGE VERY LITTLE TODAY. THUS...A BRIEF
   PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE
   AFTERNOON...BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MEET THE TEMPORAL THRESHOLD
   REQUIRED FOR AN OUTLOOK AREA.
   
   ..GARNER.. 05/01/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 010735
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0235 AM CDT FRI MAY 01 2009
   
   VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SERN AZ...SRN NM...FAR W TX...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM SRN CA INTO
   AZ/NM BY LATE AFTERNOON. A POTENT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK ON THE
   ORDER OF 120 KT WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE WRN SIDE OF THE TROUGH
   DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH DURING
   THE NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL FAVOR STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WLY FLOW
   FROM AZ INTO FAR W TX...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH A DRY SURFACE
   AIRMASS...WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SERN AZ...SRN NM...FAR W TX...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS...LOW RH...MODERATE TO SEVERE
   DROUGHT
   
   VERY SUBTLE MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER
   TROUGH ON SUN/D2. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE A BIT SLOWER AND STILL IN
   THE PROCESS OF DIGGING...WHILE THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE
   AND NOT AS FAR SOUTH. HOWEVER...THERE IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT LOW LEVEL
   WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FROM AZ INTO FAR W TX WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
   UPPER DISTURBANCE...REACHING SUSTAINED VALUES THAT WILL FAVOR
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS
   FORECAST IS THE DEGREE OF MID LEVEL MOISTENING...WHICH MAY
   SUBSEQUENTLY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE AND HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF
   CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND SREF GUIDANCE
   INDICATE RH WILL RESIDE RIGHT ON THE THRESHOLD OF CRITICAL FORECAST
   CRITERIA...WHILE GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE A BIT MORE DRY. DUE TO
   THIS UNCERTAINTY...THE PREVIOUS D3 FORECAST HAS BEEN CHANGED LITTLE
   WITH THIS OUTLOOK.
   
   ..GARNER.. 05/01/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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