Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 010647
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0147 AM CDT FRI MAY 01 2009
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW WILL CHARACTERIZE THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER
THE S CNTRL-SERN CONUS TODAY...WHILE SHORT WAVE RIDGING TAKES PLACE
OVER THE WRN-SWRN STATES AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A VERY WARM
LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WILL RESIDE FROM PARTS OF SRN NV-LWR CO RIVER
VALLEY INTO W TX...WHERE ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN
VERY LOW RH VALUES. SURFACE WINDS BENEATH AND AHEAD OF THE
DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT...WITH ONLY
LOCALIZED AND BRIEF PERIODS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.
...PARTS OF SRN NV AND THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...
MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE CA COAST...BUT
DAYTIME HIGHS ARE STILL FORECAST TO CLIMB THROUGH THE 80S AND 90S.
THE HOT AIRMASS COMBINED WITH PRE-EXISTING LOW SURFACE DEWPOINTS
WILL FAVOR RH VALUES IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS /THOUGH THIS MAY
BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY MIXING OF HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT ALOFT/.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY...WHICH MAY
RESULT IN GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH. HOWEVER...SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SPEEDS MAY INCREASE TO 20 MPH
AFTER SUNSET...BUT RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO RECOVER WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.
...GUADALUPE MTNS OF FAR W TX AND SERN NM...
SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 35 MPH WERE OBSERVED AT KGDP /GUADALUPE
PASS/ DURING MID TO LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON /APRIL 30TH/...WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS NEAR 0 DEG F /YIELDING RH
VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS/. THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN AND SURFACE
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CHANGE VERY LITTLE TODAY. THUS...A BRIEF
PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MEET THE TEMPORAL THRESHOLD
REQUIRED FOR AN OUTLOOK AREA.
..GARNER.. 05/01/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 010735
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0235 AM CDT FRI MAY 01 2009
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SERN AZ...SRN NM...FAR W TX...
...SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM SRN CA INTO
AZ/NM BY LATE AFTERNOON. A POTENT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK ON THE
ORDER OF 120 KT WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE WRN SIDE OF THE TROUGH
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH DURING
THE NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL FAVOR STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WLY FLOW
FROM AZ INTO FAR W TX...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH A DRY SURFACE
AIRMASS...WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SERN AZ...SRN NM...FAR W TX...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS...LOW RH...MODERATE TO SEVERE
DROUGHT
VERY SUBTLE MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH ON SUN/D2. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE A BIT SLOWER AND STILL IN
THE PROCESS OF DIGGING...WHILE THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE
AND NOT AS FAR SOUTH. HOWEVER...THERE IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FROM AZ INTO FAR W TX WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE...REACHING SUSTAINED VALUES THAT WILL FAVOR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS
FORECAST IS THE DEGREE OF MID LEVEL MOISTENING...WHICH MAY
SUBSEQUENTLY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE AND HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND SREF GUIDANCE
INDICATE RH WILL RESIDE RIGHT ON THE THRESHOLD OF CRITICAL FORECAST
CRITERIA...WHILE GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE A BIT MORE DRY. DUE TO
THIS UNCERTAINTY...THE PREVIOUS D3 FORECAST HAS BEEN CHANGED LITTLE
WITH THIS OUTLOOK.
..GARNER.. 05/01/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...