Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

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   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 020710
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0210 AM CDT SAT MAY 02 2009
   
   VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SERN AZ...SRN NM...FAR W TX...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   EARLY SATURDAY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
   ENTERING THE WRN CONUS. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY PROGRESS
   E ACROSS AZ AND NM DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN INTO THE SRN
   PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT. A STRONG /100+ KT/ UPPER LEVEL JET WILL
   RESIDE ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH...WHICH WILL FAVOR
   STRENGTHENING WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OVER MUCH OF SRN AZ AND NM INTO
   FAR W TX. THIS FLOW REGIME COMBINED WITH A DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS
   WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SERN AZ...SRN NM...FAR W TX...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS...LOW RH...MODERATE TO SEVERE
   DROUGHT
   
   ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATE A SURFACE LOW
   WILL DEVELOP OVER SERN NM/SW TX BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED
   WINDS UP TO 30 MPH ARE LIKELY TO THE W OF THE LOW...WITH LOCALLY
   HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH EXPECTED AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
   WARMS/MIXES...AND FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS WITH THE APPROACHING
   TROUGH. MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS THAT SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAY TEND
   TO RISE FROM W TO E DURING THE DAY AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE ENTERS THE
   REGION...LEADING TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH VALUES.
   IT IS LIKELY THAT SOME LOCATIONS WITHIN THE CRITICAL OUTLOOK AREA
   MAY ONLY MARGINALLY MEET CRITERIA...SUCH AS SERN AZ/SWRN NM.
   HOWEVER...MODIFICATION OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR LOCATIONS ELSEWHERE
   YIELD RH VALUES THAT EASILY FALL INTO THE LOWER TEENS FOR HIGH
   TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S...AND WOULD SUPPORT CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER CONDITIONS.
   
   ..GARNER.. 05/02/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 020711
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0211 AM CDT SAT MAY 02 2009
   
   VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROGRESS E ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS
   AND INTO THE MS VALLEY REGION ON SUNDAY/DAY 2. A MOIST LOW LEVEL
   AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL FAVOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
   OVER THE SERN STATES...WHILE A COOL POST FRONTAL AIRMASS FILTERS S
   INTO THE SRN PLAINS. FARTHER W...STRONG JET STREAM WINDS WILL ENTER
   THE WRN STATES...LEADING TO POTENTIALLY GUSTY SURFACE WINDS DURING
   SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF SRN CA.
   
   ...PORTIONS OF SRN CA...
   A BAND OF MODERATELY STRONG WNW MID LEVEL FLOW /AROUND 35 KT AT 700
   MB PER NAM AND GFS GUIDANCE/ IS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF SRN CA DURING THE AFTERNOON. WARM TEMPERATURES /80S AND 90S/ ARE
   EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER INTERIOR LOCATIONS...WHICH MAY FAVOR RH
   VALUES LOCALLY FALLING INTO THE TEENS. THE STRENGTHENING FLOW ALOFT
   WOULD SUPPORT GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 MPH...RESULTING IN DANGEROUS FIRE
   WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
   TEMPORAL CRITERIA WILL NOT BE MET FOR A CRITICAL OUTLOOK AREA.
   
   ..GARNER.. 05/02/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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