Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 040704
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0204 AM CDT MON MAY 04 2009
   
   VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A BROAD TROUGH
   OVER THE ERN CONUS...AND ZONAL FLOW OVER THE W. A SERIES OF UPPER
   LEVEL IMPULSES WILL MOVE FROM E TO W WITHIN THIS UPPER FLOW REGIME
   FROM THE NWRN TO N CENTRAL STATES...AS WELL AS OVER THE SERN TO MID
   ATLANTIC STATES. IN THE LOW LEVELS...AN ANTICYCLONE EXTENDING ESE
   FROM THE ATLANTIC TOWARD FL WILL FOCUS A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS
   FROM SRN TX INTO THE SE CONUS...WHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
   FAVORED TO OCCUR. FARTHER W...MODERATELY STRONG WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL
   BEGIN TO INDUCE LEE SIDE TROUGHING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...WHICH WILL
   FAVOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES OVER THE DESERT SW INTO PORTIONS OF W
   TX.
   
   ...PORTIONS OF SRN NM AND FAR W TX...
   WLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL FAVOR WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW DEWPOINTS
   OVER SRN NM AND FAR W TX ON MONDAY...RESULTING IN AFTERNOON RH
   VALUES IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   INDICATE STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL DEVELOP FROM THE SURFACE UP TO NEAR
   600 MB...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH 20-30 KT MEAN WLY FLOW...WILL LIKELY
   RESULT IN GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS...PARTICULARLY OVER FAVORED ELEVATED
   TERRAIN. THOUGH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT INDICATED TO MEET
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA...GUSTY WINDS COMBINED WITH A HOT DRY
   SURFACE AIRMASS WILL STILL PROMOTE AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ...CENTRAL FL PENINSULA...
   MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES EARLY AFTERNOON RH VALUES MAY FALL INTO THE
   LOW 30S. HOWEVER...AN AXIS OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RESIDING OVER
   THE REGION APPEARS TO BE UNFAVORABLE FOR CRITICALLY STRONG SUSTAINED
   WIND SPEEDS...WHICH PRECLUDES AN OUTLOOK AREA FROM BEING ASSIGNED.
   
   ..GARNER.. 05/04/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 040705
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0205 AM CDT MON MAY 04 2009
   
   VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN NM AND PORTIONS OF W/SW/FAR W
   TX...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
   AND SRN PLAINS BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS HAPPENS...SURFACE
   LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN SLIGHTLY AS IT MIGRATES E INTO THE SRN HIGH
   PLAINS. A DRYLINE WILL EXTEND S FROM THE LOW...CHARACTERIZED BY A
   HOT/DRY AIRMASS TO ITS W. MODERATELY STRONG SURFACE WINDS WILL
   DEVELOP WITHIN THIS AIRMASS OVER SRN NM INTO PORTIONS OF W/SW/FAR W
   TX DURING THE AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SRN NM AND PORTIONS OF W/SW/FAR W
   TX...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: LOW RH...WARM TEMPERATURES...STRONG
   WINDS...MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT
   
   THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO TUESDAY/S FIRE WEATHER
   POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO BE THE STRENGTH OF SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS W
   OF THE DRYLINE. THERMODYNAMICALLY...THE BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS WILL
   BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...GIVEN 90 TO
   NEAR 100 DEG TEMPERATURES...RH VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...AND A
   DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS AIRMASS...COMBINED WITH MODERATE
   TO SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS PRESENT OVER THE REGION SHOULD PROMOTE
   VERY EFFICIENT FIRE STARTS. MODEL FORECASTS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
   BAND OF 20-30 KT 700 MB WLY FLOW RESIDING ALONG THE SRN NM/FAR W TX
   BORDER BY EARLY AFTERNOON /WITH SOME WEAKENING NOTED BY LATE
   AFTERNOON/. THIS FLOW WOULD SUPPORT GUSTY SURFACE WINDS AS THE
   BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES...WHILE A MODEST DEEPENING OF THE W TX
   SURFACE LOW MAY INDUCE STRENGTHENING IN SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS TO
   VALUES NEAR 20-25 MPH. 
   
   MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE DRYLINE WILL MIX E THROUGH MUCH OF
   W TX...SUGGESTING THAT AN EWD EXTENSION OF THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   AREA MAY BE NECESSARY IN THE NEXT FORECAST.
   
   ..GARNER.. 05/04/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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