Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 070749
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0249 AM CDT THU MAY 07 2009
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EXTREME SRN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY
IN CALIFORNIA...
...SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO RESIDE OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO EXIT NE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. FAST
JET STREAM WINDS WILL EXTEND FROM THE PAC NW INTO THE CENTRAL AND
NRN PLAINS...FAVORING STRONG/GUSTY WINDS OVER WY. ELSEWHERE...HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
DESERT SW WILL RESULT IN A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SRN
CA...FAVORING NNWLY WINDS THAT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLY ORIENTED OVER
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY FOR STRONG DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND ENHANCED WILDFIRE
POTENTIAL.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - EXTREME SRN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY IN
CALIFORNIA...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS...LOW RH...WARM
TEMPERATURES...MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SURROUNDING ONGOING WILDFIRE EVENT IN SRN SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY VALID WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING INDICATE
TEMPERATURES CLIMBED INTO THE 90S WITH DEWPOINTS RESIDING IN THE
30S...RESULTING IN RH VALUES BELOW 15 PERCENT. THE LOW RH COMBINED
WITH STRONG/GUSTY NNWLY SURFACE WINDS /AOA 35 MPH/ LED TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE NNW LOW LEVEL FLOW FAVORS STRONG
DOWNSLOPE WINDS FOR THOSE LOCATIONS FROM THE CREST OF THE SANTA YNEZ
MTS TO THE SRN COAST OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY...AND CONTRIBUTE TO
RAPID DRYING AND WARMING. SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS VALID
05Z/THURSDAY PLACES A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE SRN
DESERTS OF CA/AZ...WHILE PRESSURE VALUES GREATER THAN 1020 MB RESIDE
OVER WRN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL CA...RESULTING IN A PRESSURE DIFFERENCE
OF 14 MB OR GREATER...WHICH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE STRONG FLOW
REGIME. MODEL FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES THE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL
CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THURSDAY/DAY 1. WITH STRONG NNW WINDS
PERSISTING...LOCALLY FAVORABLE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER
PORTIONS OF SRN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY ARE EXPECTED.
...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SRN-SERN WY...
STRONG DEEP LAYER WLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO RESIDE OVER WY...WHICH
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AOA 20-25 MPH...WITH GUSTS
OF 35 MPH OR GREATER. SURFACE RH VALUES DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ARE EXPECTED TO RESIDE NEAR 20 PERCENT FOR AN HOUR OR
TWO...RESULTING IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN COMBINED
WITH THE STRONG SURFACE WINDS.
..GARNER.. 05/07/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 070752
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0252 AM CDT THU MAY 07 2009
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EXTREME SRN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY
IN CALIFORNIA...
...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SLIDE E TOWARD THE N CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE NATION ON FRIDAY...WHILE MAINLY ZONAL FLOW PERSISTS
ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY FROM THE MID SOUTH INTO THE SRN
PLAINS...WHERE IT CONNECTS UP WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER WRN
PORTIONS OF TX. EAST OF THE LOW...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE
PRESENT INTO THE DESERT SW. FARTHER W...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE PACIFIC OCEAN AND A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE SRN
DESERTS OF CA AND AZ WILL RESULT IN A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT
WILL FAVOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER SRN SANTA BARBARA
COUNTY IN CA.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - EXTREME SRN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY IN
CALIFORNIA...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS...LOW RH...WARM
TEMPERATURES...MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT
NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO FRIDAY...SUGGESTING
THAT WARM/DRYING DOWNSLOPE WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER SRN SANTA BARBARA
COUNTY IN CA. THOUGH MOST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH DURING THE DAY...A STRONG WNW-ESE
ORIENTED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STILL EXIST ACROSS THE CRITICAL
OUTLOOK AREA. THESE FEATURE ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS AOA 25 MPH...TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S...AND RH VALUES
FALLING BELOW 15 PERCENT...SIMILAR TO CONDITIONS OBSERVED DURING THE
MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK.
...PORTIONS OF ERN AZ AND MUCH OF NM...
WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND DRY MID LEVEL AIR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
A DEEP WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS
OF ERN AZ AND MUCH OF NM. MEAN BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AOA 20-25 KT WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES...RESULTING IN ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS AS RH VALUES FALL INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE
DIGITS.
..GARNER.. 05/07/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...