Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 070749
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0249 AM CDT THU MAY 07 2009
   
   VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EXTREME SRN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY
   IN CALIFORNIA...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO RESIDE OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS
   AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO EXIT NE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. FAST
   JET STREAM WINDS WILL EXTEND FROM THE PAC NW INTO THE CENTRAL AND
   NRN PLAINS...FAVORING STRONG/GUSTY WINDS OVER WY. ELSEWHERE...HIGH
   PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
   DESERT SW WILL RESULT IN A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SRN
   CA...FAVORING NNWLY WINDS THAT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLY ORIENTED OVER
   SANTA BARBARA COUNTY FOR STRONG DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND ENHANCED WILDFIRE
   POTENTIAL.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - EXTREME SRN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY IN
   CALIFORNIA...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS...LOW RH...WARM
   TEMPERATURES...MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT
   
   SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SURROUNDING ONGOING WILDFIRE EVENT IN SRN SANTA
   BARBARA COUNTY VALID WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING INDICATE
   TEMPERATURES CLIMBED INTO THE 90S WITH DEWPOINTS RESIDING IN THE
   30S...RESULTING IN RH VALUES BELOW 15 PERCENT. THE LOW RH COMBINED
   WITH STRONG/GUSTY NNWLY SURFACE WINDS /AOA 35 MPH/ LED TO CRITICAL
   FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE NNW LOW LEVEL FLOW FAVORS STRONG
   DOWNSLOPE WINDS FOR THOSE LOCATIONS FROM THE CREST OF THE SANTA YNEZ
   MTS TO THE SRN COAST OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY...AND CONTRIBUTE TO
   RAPID DRYING AND WARMING. SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS VALID
   05Z/THURSDAY PLACES A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE SRN
   DESERTS OF CA/AZ...WHILE PRESSURE VALUES GREATER THAN 1020 MB RESIDE
   OVER WRN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL CA...RESULTING IN A PRESSURE DIFFERENCE
   OF 14 MB OR GREATER...WHICH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE STRONG FLOW
   REGIME. MODEL FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES THE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL
   CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THURSDAY/DAY 1. WITH STRONG NNW WINDS
   PERSISTING...LOCALLY FAVORABLE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER
   PORTIONS OF SRN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY ARE EXPECTED.
   
   ...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SRN-SERN WY...
   STRONG DEEP LAYER WLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO RESIDE OVER WY...WHICH
   WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AOA 20-25 MPH...WITH GUSTS
   OF 35 MPH OR GREATER. SURFACE RH VALUES DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON
   ARE EXPECTED TO RESIDE NEAR 20 PERCENT FOR AN HOUR OR
   TWO...RESULTING IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN COMBINED
   WITH THE STRONG SURFACE WINDS.
   
   ..GARNER.. 05/07/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 070752
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0252 AM CDT THU MAY 07 2009
   
   VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EXTREME SRN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY
   IN CALIFORNIA...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SLIDE E TOWARD THE N CENTRAL
   PORTION OF THE NATION ON FRIDAY...WHILE MAINLY ZONAL FLOW PERSISTS
   ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS
   EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY FROM THE MID SOUTH INTO THE SRN
   PLAINS...WHERE IT CONNECTS UP WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER WRN
   PORTIONS OF TX. EAST OF THE LOW...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE
   PRESENT INTO THE DESERT SW. FARTHER W...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
   THE PACIFIC OCEAN AND A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE SRN
   DESERTS OF CA AND AZ WILL RESULT IN A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT
   WILL FAVOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER SRN SANTA BARBARA
   COUNTY IN CA.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - EXTREME SRN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY IN
   CALIFORNIA...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS...LOW RH...WARM
   TEMPERATURES...MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT
   
   NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO FRIDAY...SUGGESTING
   THAT WARM/DRYING DOWNSLOPE WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER SRN SANTA BARBARA
   COUNTY IN CA. THOUGH MOST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SURFACE HIGH
   PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH DURING THE DAY...A STRONG WNW-ESE
   ORIENTED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STILL EXIST ACROSS THE CRITICAL
   OUTLOOK AREA. THESE FEATURE ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SUSTAINED
   SURFACE WINDS AOA 25 MPH...TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S...AND RH VALUES
   FALLING BELOW 15 PERCENT...SIMILAR TO CONDITIONS OBSERVED DURING THE
   MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK.
   
   ...PORTIONS OF ERN AZ AND MUCH OF NM...
   WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND DRY MID LEVEL AIR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
   A DEEP WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF ERN AZ AND MUCH OF NM. MEAN BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AOA 20-25 KT WILL
   CONTRIBUTE TO GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES...RESULTING IN ELEVATED FIRE
   WEATHER CONDITIONS AS RH VALUES FALL INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE
   DIGITS.
   
   ..GARNER.. 05/07/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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