Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 080716
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0216 AM CDT FRI MAY 08 2009
   
   VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EXTREME SRN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY
   IN CALIFORNIA...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   IN THE WEST...PRIMARILY ZONAL FLOW/VERY WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL
   EXIST FOLLOWING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE
   NRN/CNTRL PLAINS AND TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE
   SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND LOW PRESSURE
   OVER THE SRN DESERTS OF CA/AZ WILL RESULT IN A VERY STRONG PRESSURE
   GRADIENT ACROSS MUCH OF CA...WITH CRITICAL CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SRN
   SANTA BARBARA COUNTY.
   
   FARTHER E...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SWD THROUGH THE CNTRL/SRN
   PLAINS...WHILE THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BECOME CENTERED ROUGHLY
   OVER NWRN TX BY LATE AFTERNOON. A DRYLINE WILL EXTEND SWD FROM THE
   LOW...WITH VERY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS W OF THIS ACROSS MUCH OF SWRN
   TX AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
   
   IN FLORIDA....SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BERMUDAS WILL CONTINUE
   TO BRING HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE CNTRL/SRN PORTIONS OF THE
   PENINSULA.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - EXTREME SRN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY IN
   CALIFORNIA...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS...LOW RH...WARM
   TEMPERATURES...MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT
   
   05Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS CA
   COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...WITH CURRENT MESOWEST OBSERVATIONS SHOWING
   TEMPERATURES LINGERING IN THE LOWER 80S IN LOCALIZED/FAVORED AREAS
   IN DOWNSLOPE WINDS...WHILE RHS REMAIN IN THE TEENS. RECENT VAD WIND
   PROFILER DATA AT 07Z IN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SHOWS WINDS OF 20 TO 30
   KT JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...WHICH GIVEN LINGERING WARM
   TEMPERATURES...THESE WINDS SHOULD EASILY MIX TO THE SURFACE.
   TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY WARM INTO THE 90S AND 100S AGAIN TODAY IN
   STRONG DOWNSLOPE/NLY WINDS...WITH RHS IN THE TEENS. NORTH WINDS WILL
   INCREASE TO 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH THROUGH FAVORED
   PASSES AND CANYONS IN THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE AND THE SOUTH COAST OF
   SANTA BARBARA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT BY LATE
   EVENING...BEFORE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING.
   HOWEVER...SATURDAY MORNING WINDS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE AS STRONG
   AS THIS MORNING.
   
   ...MUCH OF AZ/NM AND SWRN TX...
   EXTREMELY DRY CONDITIONS ARE PERSISTING THIS MORNING...WITH WARM
   TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE RH RECOVERY. VERY DRY AIR...HOT SURFACE
   TEMPERATURES...AND DEEP MIXING HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH
   TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. GIVEN HOT/DRY CONDITIONS...THIS MAY CAUSE AN
   ELEVATED FIRE THREAT...THOUGH SUSTAINED WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
   LIGHT. LITTLE RH RECOVERY CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING.
   
   ...FLORIDA...
   SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BAHAMAS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY OF
   HOT/DRY CONDITIONS OVER FLORIDA...WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM
   INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S STATEWIDE. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES NEAR
   30 PERCENT CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN
   FLORIDA. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE WEAK...LOCALIZED STRONGER
   WINDS/GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE WEST AND EAST COAST SEA BREEZES
   BEGIN TO PUSH INLAND BY AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS...COOLER
   TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE SEA BREEZES WILL TEMPER THE THREAT ALONG THE
   IMMEDIATE COASTS.
   
   ..HURLBUT.. 05/08/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 080833
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0333 AM CDT FRI MAY 08 2009
   
   VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EXTREME SRN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY
   IN CA...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SERN CA/SRN NV/SRN UT/SWRN CO/N
   AND CNTRL AZ/WRN NM...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   IN THE WEST...WEAK RIDGING OVER SRN CA AND A RELATIVELY TIGHT
   SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO A BRIEF WINDOW OF CRITICAL
   CONDITIONS IN DOWNSLOPE WINDS OVER SANTA BARBARA COUNTY...ALTHOUGH A
   SHIFT TO WLY WINDS BY LATE MORNING WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO TEMPER THE
   THREAT. WEAK TROUGHING AHEAD OF THIS AND A 50 TO 60 KT MID LEVEL JET
   WILL LEAD TO THE DEEPENING OF A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE SERN UT/SWRN CO
   BORDERS. STRONG SWLY/SLY WINDS WILL ALIGN WITH HOT/DRY CONDITIONS
   ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE SOUTHWEST.
   
   FARTHER E...BY LATE AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM COASTAL
   NEW ENGLAND SWWD THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS AND WWD INTO CNTRL TX.
   MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER FLORIDA...WITH
   HOT/DRY CONDITIONS LIKELY ACROSS INLAND FLORIDA BY AFTERNOON.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - EXTREME SRN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY IN
   CA...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS...LOW RH...WARM/HOT
   TEMPERATURES...MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT
   
   HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
   DESERTS OF SRN CA/AZ WILL MAINTAIN A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
   OVER CA SATURDAY MORNING...ALBEIT SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN D1. CRITICAL
   CONDITIONS WILL PRIMARILY EXIST IN THE MORNING AS NLY/DOWNSLOPE
   WINDS ALLOW LITTLE RH RECOVERY AND MAINTAIN WARM TEMPERATURES
   OVERNIGHT. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE CRITICAL AREA. BY
   LATE MORNING...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO WLY...AND THE OVERALL
   THREAT SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE/BECOME LESS FOCUSED OVER THE AREA.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SERN CA/SRN NV/SRN UT/SWRN CO/N AND
   CNTRL AZ/WRN NM...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS...LOW RH...WARM/HOT TEMPERATURES
   
   A SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN NEAR THE SERN UT/SWRN CO
   BORDERS AS WEAK TROUGHING AND A 50 TO 60 KT MID LEVEL JET PASS
   OVERHEAD. SWLY/SLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS A WIDESPREAD AREA IN
   RESPONSE. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER 100S WITH RHS IN THE
   SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE S...WHILE UPPER 70S AND RHS IN THE TEENS
   CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN AREAS. THE STRONGEST WINDS CAN BE
   EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW. ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY BE MARGINAL
   ACROSS THE S...GIVEN HOT TEMPERATURES/LOW RH AND DROUGHT
   CONDITIONS...A HEIGHTENED THREAT WILL EXIST.
   
   ...FLORIDA...
   SIMILAR TO D1...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE
   BAHAMAS...WITH HOT/DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS OVER FLORIDA.
   TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S STATEWIDE. INLAND PORTIONS
   OF THE CNTRL/SRN PENINSULA CAN EXPECT RHS TO DROP INTO THE LOWER
   30S. LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WEST/EAST COAST SEA
   BREEZES BEGIN TO MOVE INLAND BY THE AFTERNOON...WHILE THE IMMEDIATE
   COAST WILL SEE A TEMPERED THREAT FOLLOWING THIS. GIVEN VERY HIGH
   KBDI...A HEIGHTENED THREAT WILL EXIST...REGARDLESS OF RELATIVELY
   LIGHT WINDS.
   
   ..HURLBUT.. 05/08/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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