Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 090721
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0221 AM CDT SAT MAY 09 2009
   
   VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EXTREME SRN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY
   IN CA...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SERN CA/SRN NV/SRN UT/SWRN CO/N
   AND CNTRL AZ/WRN NM...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   IN THE WEST...WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER SRN CA AND A RELATIVELY TIGHT
   SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO A SHORT WINDOW OF CRITICAL
   CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO
   WLY...SOMEWHAT TEMPERING THE THREAT IN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY BY EARLY
   AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS...WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGHING AND A 50 TO 60
   KT JET WILL DEEPEN A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH
   SUBTLE DEEPENING OF A LOW NEAR THE SERN UT/SWRN CO BORDERS.
   STRONG/GUSTY WINDS WILL ALIGN WITH HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS A
   LARGE PORTION OF THE SOUTHWEST.
   
   FARTHER E...BY LATE AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM COASTAL
   NEW ENGLAND SWWD THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS AND WWD INTO CNTRL TX.
   MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER FLORIDA...WITH
   HOT/DRY CONDITIONS LIKELY ACROSS INLAND FLORIDA BY AFTERNOON. ISOLD
   THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY LITTLE RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY
   OVER FAR INLAND CNTRL/SRN FL.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - EXTREME SRN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY IN
   CA...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS...LOW RH...WARM/HOT
   TEMPERATURES...MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT
   
   05Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
   LINGERING ACROSS MUCH OF CALIFORNIA AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER
   THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND A LOW REMAINS OVER THE DESERTS OF SRN
   CA/SWRN AZ. ALTHOUGH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAKER THAN
   YESTERDAY...RECENT OBSERVATIONS AT MONECITO SHOW GUSTS TO 35 MPH.
   LOW ELEVATION OBS REFLECT THAT THE MARINE LAYER HAS PUSHED INLAND
   OVER SANTA BARBARA COUNTY...BUT REMAINS RELATIVELY SHALLOW/BELOW
   1000 FT DEPTH. THIS WILL TEMPER THE THREAT AT THE LOWEST
   ELEVATIONS...BUT ABOVE THIS EXPECT HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS TO
   CONTINUE TO ALIGN WITH GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE MORNING. THE MARINE
   INFLUENCE WILL INCREASE THEREAFTER...AND THE THREAT WILL GRADUALLY
   DECREASE/BECOME LESS FOCUSED OVER THE AREA.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SERN CA/SRN NV/SRN UT/SWRN CO/N AND
   CNTRL AZ/WRN NM...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS...LOW RH...WARM/HOT
   TEMPERATURES...DRY FUELS
   
   05Z ANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE LOW IN NERN AZ/NWRN NM WITH A TROUGH
   AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE ROCKIES IN CO. AS A SUBTLE MID LEVEL
   TROUGH/50 TO 60 KT MID LEVEL JET PASSES OVERHEAD...THE LOW WILL
   DEEPEN SLIGHTLY NEAR THE SERN UT/SWRN CO BORDERS. TEMPERATURES WILL
   RISE INTO THE LOWER 100S WITH RHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE
   S...WHILE UPPER 70S AND RHS IN THE TEENS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
   NRN AREAS. THE STRONGEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE SURFACE
   LOW. ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY BE MARGINAL ACROSS THE S...GIVEN HOT
   TEMPERATURES/LOW RH/DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND RECENT FIRES...A
   HEIGHTENED THREAT WILL EXIST.
   
   ...FLORIDA...
   SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED E
   OF THE BAHAMAS...WITH HOT/DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS PERSISTING OVER
   FLORIDA. AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S...RHS
   WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS FAR INLAND PORTIONS OF THE
   PENINSULA. WEST/EAST COAST SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING BY LATE AFTERNOON
   WILL TEMPER THE THREAT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS. HOWEVER...AS
   THESE CONVERGE...ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP...MAINLY IN
   CNTRL/SRN FL. RAINFALL TOTALS FROM YESTERDAY/S ISOLD STORMS SHOWS
   VERY LITTLE RAINFALL REACHED THE GROUND...AND SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP
   TODAY...SIMILAR TRENDS CAN BE EXPECTED.
   
   ..HURLBUT.. 05/09/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 090757
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0257 AM CDT SAT MAY 09 2009
   
   VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO EXIT THE NORTHEAST...WHILE A
   FRONT WILL LINGER OVER MUCH OF THE SERN STATES. DRY CONDITIONS MAY
   PERSIST ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND SRN FL AS SURFACE HIGH
   PRESSURE LINGERS E OF THE BAHAMAS. FARTHER W...HOT/DRY CONDITIONS
   WILL BE WIDESPREAD OVER THE SOUTHWEST...ALTHOUGH GENERALLY WITH
   LIGHT WINDS. LITTLE RH RECOVERY CAN BE ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT. BY
   MONDAY MORNING...NLY WINDS MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE ALONG IMMEDIATE
   COASTAL AREAS OF SRN CA...WITH LOCALIZED WARM/DRY CONDITIONS. THIS
   WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE UPGRADE IN TOMORROW/S FORECAST.
   
   ..HURLBUT.. 05/09/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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