Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 110733
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0233 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2009
   
   VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR COASTAL SRN CA...PRIMARILY SANTA
   BARBARA...VENTURA...AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SWRN WY/NERN UT/NWRN CO...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   IN THE EAST...UPPER TROUGHING WILL DOMINATE...WHILE AT THE SURFACE
   BROAD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL
   CONTINUE TO BUILD SWD AND EWD. THIS WILL SLOWLY PUSH A COLD FRONT
   OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS...AND ALLOW IT TO BECOME RELATIVELY
   STATIONARY ACROSS THE FL/GA BORDERS...EXTENDING WWD ALONG THE GULF
   COAST. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THUNDERSTORMS IN THESE
   AREAS. S OF THE FRONT IN FL...ANOTHER DAY OF HOT TEMPERATURES/LOW RH
   WILL PERSIST ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA. ISOLD
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE WEST/EAST COAST SEA BREEZES
   MERGE. 
   
   MEANWHILE IN THE WEST...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE SEWD INTO
   WASHINGTON...WITH UPPER RIDGING AFFECTING THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
   STRONG/GUSTY WINDS WILL ALIGN WITH WARM/HOT TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF A
   COLD FRONT IN PORTIONS OF WY/CO/UT. FARTHER S...HOT AND DRY
   CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST...ALTHOUGH WITH LIGHTER WINDS THAN AREAS TO
   THE N. 
     
   ALONG THE COAST...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE OVER
   CALIFORNIA AS A LOW DEEPENS OVER THE DESERTS OF SERN CA/SWRN
   AZ...AND HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. CRITICAL
   CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS NLY FLOW
   RETURNS...BRINGING WARM/DRY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS IN DOWNSLOPE
   FLOW TO MUCH OF SANTA BARBARA...VENTURA...AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - COASTAL SRN CA...PRIMARILY SANTA
   BARBARA...VENTURA...AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: GUSTY WINDS...LOW RH...WARM/HOT
   TEMPERATURES...MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT
   
   WV IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH MOVING INTO SRN CA...WITH
   ANTICYCLONIC/UPPER RIDGING FOLLOWING. AS THE UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES
   TO APPROACH THE COAST...WINDS WILL VEER THROUGH THE DAY...BECOMING
   MORE NLY BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. 05Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH
   PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW
   OVER THE DESERTS OF SERN CA/SWRN AZ. ALTHOUGH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
   REMAINS WEAK AT THE MOMENT...IT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
   DAY. IN RESPONSE...EXPECT WARM/HOT TEMPERATURES AND LOW RH AS WINDS
   INCREASE AND BECOME PREDOMINANTLY FROM THE NORTH. WINDS WILL
   STRENGTHEN INTO D2...WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH
   D2 AND D3.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SWRN WY/NERN UT/NWRN CO...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS...LOW RH
   
   AN UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE SEWD INTO WASHINGTON THROUGH THE
   PERIOD. AHEAD OF THIS...WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE
   INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WHILE A 50 TO 60 KT JET OVERSPREADS THE NWRN
   CONUS. HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS A WIDESPREAD
   AREA. STRONG WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT IN MUCH OF
   WY/UT/CO...WHILE WARM TEMPERATURES/STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
   ALLOW GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH TO MIX TO THE SURFACE.
   
   ...SRN UT/NRN AZ...
   HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SWRN STATES...WITH
   TEMPERATURES IN THE NEAR 105 ACROSS SRN AZ...AND MID 80S ACROSS SRN
   UT. RHS WILL PREDOMINANTLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.
   ALTHOUGH STRONGER JET WINDS WILL REMAIN TO THE N OF THESE
   AREAS...HOT TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH TO MIX TO THE
   SURFACE. GIVEN ABNORMALLY DRY/MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS...A
   HEIGHTENED FIRE THREAT WILL EXIST.
   
   ...FLORIDA...
   SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...HOT/DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST S OF
   A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH THE FL/GA BORDER.
   TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WILL CAUSE RHS TO DROP INTO THE
   UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/SRN
   PENINSULA. ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY LITTLE RAINFALL WILL
   INCREASE THE RISK OF FIRE STARTS ACROSS VERY HIGH KBDI AREAS AS THE
   WEST/EAST COAST SEA BREEZES CONVERGE BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
   EVENING.
   
   ..HURLBUT.. 05/11/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 110840
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0340 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2009
   
   VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SERN WY...MUCH OF CO...ERN
   UT...NRN NM...NERN AZ...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR COASTAL SRN CA...PRIMARILY SANTA
   BARBARA...VENTURA...AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED 70 TO 80 KT MID LEVEL JET WILL QUICKLY
   MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS. BY LATE
   AFTERNOON...A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND WSWWD THROUGH CNTRL
   ND...ARCING SWWD THROUGH SERN CO...CNTRL UT...AND SRN NV. THE
   SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE
   WEST AS THIS LOW PROGRESSES EWD...AND HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE OF NRN
   CA/SRN OR NOSING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN.
   THE RESULT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN WINDS ACROSS A WIDESPREAD AREA IN
   THE WEST...WITH STRONGER WINDS MIXING TO THE SURFACE AS TEMPERATURES
   REMAIN WARM EVEN FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. BROAD AREAS WITH RHS
   IN THE TEENS WILL BE COMMON...WHILE THE FRONT ITSELF IS EXPECTED TO
   BRING LITTLE RAINFALL.
   
   MEANWHILE IN SRN CA...UPPER RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE
   COAST...WITH AN INCREASE IN NLY 850 MB FLOW AS WELL. THE SURFACE
   PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH WARM/DRY
   CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS IN DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN SANTA
   BARBARA...VENTURA...AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SERN WY...MUCH OF CO...ERN UT...NRN
   NM...NERN AZ...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG/GUSTY WINDS...WARM TEMPERATURES...LOW RH
   
   A STRONG JET MAX WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE WEST...WHILE AT THE
   SURFACE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BETWEEN
   HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE COAST...AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS.
   TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 80S...WITH RHS IN
   THE TEENS ACROSS A WIDESPREAD AREA. WLY/SWLY WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD
   FRONT IN WY/CO/UT/AZ AND BEHIND A DRYLINE IN NM WILL BE SUSTAINED
   AROUND 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - COASTAL SRN CA...PRIMARILY SANTA
   BARBARA...VENTURA...AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG/GUSTY WINDS...WARM/HOT TEMPERATURES...LOW
   RH...MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT
   
   THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ASSOCIATED NLY WINDS IN COASTAL SRN CA
   WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
   EVENING...PERSISTING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO D3. EXPECT HOT/DRY
   DOWNSLOPE WINDS WITH SINGLE DIGIT RHS POSSIBLE. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
   COMMON...ESPECIALLY NEAR FAVORED PASSES AND CANYONS.
   
   ...SERN ID/SWRN WY/NRN UT...
   STRONG POST FRONTAL WINDS WILL AFFECT THE REGION...WITH SUSTAINED
   SPEEDS NEAR 30 MPH WITH STRONGER GUSTS. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY COOL
   TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S WILL PREVENT RHS FROM
   DROPPING BELOW CRITICAL VALUES. REGARDLESS...GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF
   WINDS...LOCALIZED THREATS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS WITH MARGINAL RHS
   AND DRIER FUELS.
   
   ...PORTIONS OF NV/AZ/NM...
   HOT/DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...WITH RHS GENERALLY IN THE
   SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. CURRENT FORECASTS REFLECT WINDS WILL BE
   VERY NEAR CRITICAL THRESHOLDS...THOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS AREAS TO THE
   N AND E. SHOULD STRONGER WINDS APPEAR LIKELY...ADDITIONAL CRITICAL
   OUTLINES WILL BE ADDED IN TOMORROW/S FORECAST.
   
   ..HURLBUT.. 05/11/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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