Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 120713
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0213 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2009
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SERN WY...MUCH OF CO...ERN
UT...NRN NM...NERN AZ...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR COASTAL SRN CA...PRIMARILY SANTA
BARBARA...VENTURA...AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED 70 TO 80 KT MID LEVEL JET WILL QUICKLY
MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...AND WILL EXTEND ROUGHLY FROM A LOW NEAR SERN MT/NERN
CO...SWWD THROUGH SERN WY...CNTRL UT...AND SRN NV. THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE WEST AS
THIS LOW VERY SLOWLY PUSHES EWD...AND HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE OF NRN
CA/SRN OR NOSES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN.
THE RESULT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN WINDS ACROSS A WIDESPREAD AREA IN
THE WEST...WITH STRONGER WINDS MIXING TO THE SURFACE AS TEMPERATURES
REMAIN WARM EVEN FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. BROAD AREAS WITH RHS
IN THE TEENS WILL BE COMMON...WHILE THE FRONT ITSELF IS EXPECTED TO
BRING LITTLE RAINFALL.
MEANWHILE IN SRN CA...UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER
THE COAST...WITH AN INCREASE IN NLY 850 MB FLOW AS WELL. THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL FURTHER INCREASE...WITH WARM/DRY CONDITIONS
AND GUSTY WINDS IN DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN SANTA BARBARA...VENTURA...AND
LOS ANGELES COUNTIES.
FARTHER EAST...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EWD INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES...WHILE NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING DRIER AIR.
MARGINAL RHS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN MICHIGAN AND THE NORTHEASTERN
STATES...THOUGH WINDS WILL GENERALLY NOT EXCEED 10 MPH.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SERN WY...MUCH OF CO...ERN UT...NRN
NM...NERN AZ...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG/GUSTY WINDS...LOW RH
A STRONG JET MAX WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE WEST...WHILE AT THE
SURFACE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE WEST COAST...AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 80S...WITH
RHS IN THE TEENS ACROSS A WIDESPREAD AREA. WLY/SWLY WINDS NEAR A
COLD FRONT IN WY/CO/UT/AZ AND BEHIND A DRYLINE IN NM WILL BE
SUSTAINED AROUND 25 TO 40 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HIGH HAINES
INDICES WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS FIRE BEHAVIOR IN ANY FIRES THAT CAN
IGNITE. IN FAR ERN PORTIONS OF THE CRITICAL NEAR THE DRYLINE...ISOLD
DRY THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - COASTAL SRN CA...PRIMARILY SANTA
BARBARA...VENTURA...AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG/GUSTY WINDS...LOW RH...HOT
TEMPERATURES...MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT
05Z SURFACE ANALYSIS REFLECTS THAT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS BEGUN
TO INCREASE ACROSS CALIFORNIA COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND A LOW DEEPENS OVER THE
DESERTS OF SERN CA/SWRN AZ. WV IMAGERY REFLECTS WEAK UPPER TROUGHING
IS MOVING EWD...WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW/UPPER RIDGING QUICKLY
FOLLOWING. EXPECT NLY 850MB TO 500 MB FLOW TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE
COASTAL AREAS OF SRN CA AS THIS OCCURS...WITH THE GREATEST INCREASES
BEGINNING BY LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG/GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL LEAD
TO WARMING AND DRYING...WITH RHS IN THE TEENS AND ISOLD SINGLE
DIGITS POSSIBLE. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH D2.
...SERN ID/SWRN WY/NRN UT...
STRONG POST FRONTAL WINDS WILL AFFECT THE REGION...WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS NEAR 30 MPH WITH STRONGER GUSTS. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY COOL
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S WILL PREVENT RHS FROM
DROPPING BELOW CRITICAL VALUES. REGARDLESS...GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF
WINDS...LOCALIZED THREATS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS WITH MARGINAL RHS
AND DRIER FUELS.
...PORTIONS OF NV/AZ/NM...
HOT/DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...WITH RHS GENERALLY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR OR BELOW
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS...WITH STRONGER VALUES EXPECTED TO THE N AND E
WITHIN THE CRITICAL OUTLINE. LOCALIZED HIGHER SPEEDS COULD POSE A
THREAT IN COMBINATION WITH DRY FUELS.
..HURLBUT.. 05/12/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 120809
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0309 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2009
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR COASTAL SRN CA...PRIMARILY SANTA
BARBARA...VENTURA...AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES...
...SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT UPPER TROUGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS
AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL LEAD
TO VERY ACTIVE WEATHER BY AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY NEAR A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES TO A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE TX
PANHANDLE...AND NEAR A WARM FRONT THAT WILL EXTEND ROUGHLY THROUGH
THE OH RIVER VALLEY...SWD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY...AND SEWD THROUGH
GA/SC INTO THE ATLANTIC.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...STRONG NWLY WINDS WILL AFFECT A LARGE
PORTION OF THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...ALTHOUGH GENERALLY WITH
MARGINAL RHS.
IN THE WEST...UPPER RIDGING WILL BE DOMINANT...WHILE A TIGHT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST OVER CA AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND A LOW PERSISTS OVER THE DESERTS OF SERN
CA/SWRN AZ. CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY OVER COASTAL SRN CA
AS DOWNSLOPE WINDS CONTINUE.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - COASTAL SRN CA...PRIMARILY SANTA
BARBARA...VENTURA...AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG/GUSTY WINDS...HOT/WARM TEMPERATURES...LOW
RH...MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT
CRITICAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS
AN UPPER HIGH REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE OF CA...AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG. NLY/DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL LEAD TO WARM/HOT
TEMPERATURES AND RHS IN THE TEENS...WITH LOCALIZED SINGLE DIGITS
POSSIBLE. THESE WILL ALIGN WITH STRONG/GUSTY WINDS...WITH THE
HIGHEST WINDS EXPECTED IN FAVORABLE PASSES AND CANYONS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
...WRN NEB/KS...SERN WY...ERN CO...
STRONG POST FRONTAL WINDS WILL AFFECT A LARGE PORTION OF THE NRN AND
CNTRL PLAINS. WARM TEMPERATURES IN WRN NEB/KS...SERN WY...AND ERN CO
WILL ALLOW RHS TO DROP TO SOMEWHAT LOWER VALUES THAN AREAS FARTHER
E...THOUGH MAINLY ONLY DROPPING INTO THE 20S. RECENT RAINFALL MAY
HELP TO TEMPER THE THREAT...EVEN IF RHS CAN DROP TO LOWER VALUES.
..HURLBUT.. 05/12/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...