Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 120713
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0213 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2009
   
   VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SERN WY...MUCH OF CO...ERN
   UT...NRN NM...NERN AZ...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR COASTAL SRN CA...PRIMARILY SANTA
   BARBARA...VENTURA...AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED 70 TO 80 KT MID LEVEL JET WILL QUICKLY
   MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS. AT THE
   SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON...AND WILL EXTEND ROUGHLY FROM A LOW NEAR SERN MT/NERN
   CO...SWWD THROUGH SERN WY...CNTRL UT...AND SRN NV. THE SURFACE
   PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE WEST AS
   THIS LOW VERY SLOWLY PUSHES EWD...AND HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE OF NRN
   CA/SRN OR NOSES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN.
   THE RESULT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN WINDS ACROSS A WIDESPREAD AREA IN
   THE WEST...WITH STRONGER WINDS MIXING TO THE SURFACE AS TEMPERATURES
   REMAIN WARM EVEN FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. BROAD AREAS WITH RHS
   IN THE TEENS WILL BE COMMON...WHILE THE FRONT ITSELF IS EXPECTED TO
   BRING LITTLE RAINFALL.
   
   MEANWHILE IN SRN CA...UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER
   THE COAST...WITH AN INCREASE IN NLY 850 MB FLOW AS WELL. THE SURFACE
   PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL FURTHER INCREASE...WITH WARM/DRY CONDITIONS
   AND GUSTY WINDS IN DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN SANTA BARBARA...VENTURA...AND
   LOS ANGELES COUNTIES.
   
   FARTHER EAST...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EWD INTO THE
   NORTHEASTERN STATES...WHILE NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING DRIER AIR.
   MARGINAL RHS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN MICHIGAN AND THE NORTHEASTERN
   STATES...THOUGH WINDS WILL GENERALLY NOT EXCEED 10 MPH.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SERN WY...MUCH OF CO...ERN UT...NRN
   NM...NERN AZ...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG/GUSTY WINDS...LOW RH
   
   A STRONG JET MAX WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE WEST...WHILE AT THE
   SURFACE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BETWEEN
   HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE WEST COAST...AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
   PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 80S...WITH
   RHS IN THE TEENS ACROSS A WIDESPREAD AREA. WLY/SWLY WINDS NEAR A
   COLD FRONT IN WY/CO/UT/AZ AND BEHIND A DRYLINE IN NM WILL BE
   SUSTAINED AROUND 25 TO 40 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HIGH HAINES
   INDICES WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS FIRE BEHAVIOR IN ANY FIRES THAT CAN
   IGNITE. IN FAR ERN PORTIONS OF THE CRITICAL NEAR THE DRYLINE...ISOLD
   DRY THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - COASTAL SRN CA...PRIMARILY SANTA
   BARBARA...VENTURA...AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG/GUSTY WINDS...LOW RH...HOT
   TEMPERATURES...MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT
   
   05Z SURFACE ANALYSIS REFLECTS THAT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS BEGUN
   TO INCREASE ACROSS CALIFORNIA COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. ADDITIONAL
   STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
   BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND A LOW DEEPENS OVER THE
   DESERTS OF SERN CA/SWRN AZ. WV IMAGERY REFLECTS WEAK UPPER TROUGHING
   IS MOVING EWD...WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW/UPPER RIDGING QUICKLY
   FOLLOWING. EXPECT NLY 850MB TO 500 MB FLOW TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE
   COASTAL AREAS OF SRN CA AS THIS OCCURS...WITH THE GREATEST INCREASES
   BEGINNING BY LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG/GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL LEAD
   TO WARMING AND DRYING...WITH RHS IN THE TEENS AND ISOLD SINGLE
   DIGITS POSSIBLE. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH D2.
   
   ...SERN ID/SWRN WY/NRN UT...
   STRONG POST FRONTAL WINDS WILL AFFECT THE REGION...WITH SUSTAINED
   SPEEDS NEAR 30 MPH WITH STRONGER GUSTS. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY COOL
   TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S WILL PREVENT RHS FROM
   DROPPING BELOW CRITICAL VALUES. REGARDLESS...GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF
   WINDS...LOCALIZED THREATS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS WITH MARGINAL RHS
   AND DRIER FUELS.
     
   ...PORTIONS OF NV/AZ/NM...
   HOT/DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...WITH RHS GENERALLY IN THE
   SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR OR BELOW
   CRITICAL THRESHOLDS...WITH STRONGER VALUES EXPECTED TO THE N AND E
   WITHIN THE CRITICAL OUTLINE. LOCALIZED HIGHER SPEEDS COULD POSE A
   THREAT IN COMBINATION WITH DRY FUELS.
   
   ..HURLBUT.. 05/12/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 120809
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0309 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2009
   
   VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR COASTAL SRN CA...PRIMARILY SANTA
   BARBARA...VENTURA...AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A POTENT UPPER TROUGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS
   AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL LEAD
   TO VERY ACTIVE WEATHER BY AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY NEAR A COLD FRONT
   EXTENDING FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES TO A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE TX
   PANHANDLE...AND NEAR A WARM FRONT THAT WILL EXTEND ROUGHLY THROUGH
   THE OH RIVER VALLEY...SWD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY...AND SEWD THROUGH
   GA/SC INTO THE ATLANTIC.
   
   BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...STRONG NWLY WINDS WILL AFFECT A LARGE
   PORTION OF THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...ALTHOUGH GENERALLY WITH
   MARGINAL RHS. 
   
   IN THE WEST...UPPER RIDGING WILL BE DOMINANT...WHILE A TIGHT SURFACE
   PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST OVER CA AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE
   PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND A LOW PERSISTS OVER THE DESERTS OF SERN
   CA/SWRN AZ. CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY OVER COASTAL SRN CA
   AS DOWNSLOPE WINDS CONTINUE.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - COASTAL SRN CA...PRIMARILY SANTA
   BARBARA...VENTURA...AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG/GUSTY WINDS...HOT/WARM TEMPERATURES...LOW
   RH...MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT
   
   CRITICAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS
   AN UPPER HIGH REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE OF CA...AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE
   GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG. NLY/DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL LEAD TO WARM/HOT
   TEMPERATURES AND RHS IN THE TEENS...WITH LOCALIZED SINGLE DIGITS
   POSSIBLE. THESE WILL ALIGN WITH STRONG/GUSTY WINDS...WITH THE
   HIGHEST WINDS EXPECTED IN FAVORABLE PASSES AND CANYONS. THE
   STRONGEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
   
   ...WRN NEB/KS...SERN WY...ERN CO...
   STRONG POST FRONTAL WINDS WILL AFFECT A LARGE PORTION OF THE NRN AND
   CNTRL PLAINS. WARM TEMPERATURES IN WRN NEB/KS...SERN WY...AND ERN CO
   WILL ALLOW RHS TO DROP TO SOMEWHAT LOWER VALUES THAN AREAS FARTHER
   E...THOUGH MAINLY ONLY DROPPING INTO THE 20S. RECENT RAINFALL MAY
   HELP TO TEMPER THE THREAT...EVEN IF RHS CAN DROP TO LOWER VALUES.
   
   ..HURLBUT.. 05/12/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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