Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 130715
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0215 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2009
   
   VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR COASTAL SRN CA...PRIMARILY SANTA
   BARBARA...VENTURA...AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN CO/NRN NM...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE EWD INTO THE NRN/CNTRL
   PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
   LEAD TO VERY ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS...PRIMARILY
   NEAR A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING ROUGHLY FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES
   SWWD TO A SURFACE LOW ROUGHLY OVER THE TX PANHANDLE.
   
   BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...STRONG NWLY WINDS WILL AFFECT A LARGE
   PORTION OF THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...ALTHOUGH GENERALLY WITH
   MARGINAL RHS. HOWEVER...DRIER CONDITIONS WILL ALIGN WITH
   STRONG/GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF CO/NM.
   
   FARTHER W...CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER COASTAL SRN CA AS
   UPPER RIDGING REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE...AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE
   GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT OVER CALIFORNIA. NLY/DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL
   LEAD TO WARMING/DRYING IN COMBINATION WITH GUSTY WINDS.
   
   TO THE E...NWLY WINDS ALOFT AND NELY/NLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL
   BRING DRY CONTINENTAL AIR TO MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH RHS MAY
   APPROACH CRITICAL VALUES...WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN
   LIGHT.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SRN CO/NRN NM...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG/GUSTY WINDS...LOW RH
   
   A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SWD THEN BEGIN TO STALL NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
   REGION. A RELATIVELY TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO
   SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...PRIMARILY IN THE
   MID AFTERNOON. RHS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS...WITH SINGLE DIGITS
   POSSIBLE ACROSS NRN NM. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY
   COULD LEAD TO ERRATIC FIRE BEHAVIOR IF FIRE STARTS CAN OCCUR.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - COASTAL SRN CA...PRIMARILY SANTA
   BARBARA...VENTURA...AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG/GUSTY WINDS...LOW RH...WARM/HOT
   TEMPERATURES...MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT
   
   06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS REFLECTS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER CA AS LOW
   PRESSURE HAS DEEPENED OVER THE DESERTS OF SERN CA/SWRN AZ/SRN
   NV...AND HIGH PRESSURE HAS STRENGTHENED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
   WV IMAGERY IS INDICATIVE OF UPPER RIDGING JUST OFFSHORE...WITH
   NLY/NWLY WINDS PREDOMINANT OVER THE COASTAL AREAS OF SRN CA. 1115 PM
   PDT MONTECITO OBSERVATION SHOWS INCREASING NNWLY WINDS SUSTAINED AT
   25 MPH AND GUSTING TO 42 MPH...WHILE THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY HAS BEEN
   DECREASING...MEASURED AT 23 PERCENT AS OF 1115 PM PDT. EXPECT
   CRITICAL CONDITIONS TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS
   STRONG/GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS CONTINUE. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
   IN THE EVENING IN CONJUNCTION WITH WARM/HOT TEMPERATURES AND RHS IN
   THE TEENS...WITH LOCALIZED SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE. THE STRONGEST
   WINDS OF THE WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
   
   ..HURLBUT.. 05/13/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 130844
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0344 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2009
   
   VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NRN AZ/NM...SRN UT...SRN/ERN CO...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR COASTAL SRN CA...PRIMARILY SANTA
   BARBARA...VENTURA...AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL SLOWLY
   MOVE SEWD THROUGH D1...THEN CONTINUE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY
   D2. UPPER TROUGHING WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
   BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH A TROUGH SUBSEQUENTLY FORMING IN THE LEE OF
   THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALSO QUICKLY PUSH A COLD FRONT SWD AND EWD
   THROUGH MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST. BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING THE FRONT
   WILL EXTEND FROM A SURFACE LOW ROUGHLY LOCATED IN SERN MT...SWWD
   THROUGH WY...WWD THROUGH CNTRL UT AND NV. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS
   WILL ALIGN WITH LOW RHS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN NRN AZ/NM...SRN
   UT/CO...AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LEE TROUGH IN ERN CO.
   
   FARTHER WEST...CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING IN COASTAL
   SRN CA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS STRONG/GUSTY NLY/DOWNSLOPE
   WINDS CONTRIBUTE TO WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW RHS. THESE CONDITIONS
   COULD CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
   INCREASES ACROSS CA AGAIN...AND UPPER HIGH PRESSURE REDEVELOPS JUST
   OFFSHORE OF THE COAST.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - NRN AZ/NM...SRN UT...SRN/ERN CO...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG/GUSTY WINDS...LOW RH
   
   STRONG/GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT IN MUCH OF NRN
   AZ/NM...SRN UT...AND SWRN/S CNTRL CO...AND IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING
   LEE TROUGHING IN ERN CO. FOR PRE-FRONTAL AREAS...STRONG SUSTAINED
   WLY WINDS NEAR 20 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL ALIGN WITH RHS IN
   THE LOWER TEENS...AND ISOLD SINGLE DIGITS. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES/INSTABILITY MAY LEAD TO ERRATIC FIRE BEHAVIOR SHOULD STARTS
   OCCUR. IN ERN CO...SLY WINDS NEAR 25 TO 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
   WILL BE COMMON...WHILE RHS WILL PRIMARILY FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - COASTAL SRN CA...PRIMARILY SANTA
   BARBARA...VENTURA...AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG/GUSTY WINDS...LOW RH...WARM/HOT
   TEMPERATURES...ANTECEDENT DRYNESS
   
   NLY/DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE
   PERIOD. CURRENT MODELS INDICATE NLY/DOWNSLOPE 850 MB FLOW COULD BE
   QUITE STRONG AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...LEADING TO STRONG/GUSTY
   WINDS ALIGNING WITH WARM/HOT TEMPERATURES AND LOW RHS. UPPER RIDGING
   WILL REBUILD OFF THE WEST COAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
   PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND PROGRESSES EWD...AND NLY WINDS WILL LIKELY
   RESTRENGTHEN BY EVENING AS THIS OCCURS. OVERNIGHT...LOW LEVEL FLOW
   IS EXPECTED TO VEER TO A MORE NELY DIRECTION...WHICH COULD TEMPER
   THE THREAT SOMEWHAT.
   
   ..HURLBUT.. 05/13/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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