Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 140722
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0222 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2009
   
   VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NERN AZ...SERN UT...NRN
   NM...SRN/ERN CO...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR COASTAL SRN CA...PRIMARILY SANTA
   BARBARA...VENTURA...AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER LOW NOTED ON WV IMAGERY JUST OFF THE BRITISH
   COLUMBIA/WASHINGTON COASTS AS OF 06Z WILL MOVE SEWD INTO THE PACIFIC
   NORTHWEST...THEN EWD TOWARDS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS LATE IN THE PERIOD.
   UPPER TROUGHING WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY
   LATE AFTERNOON...WITH A TROUGH SUBSEQUENTLY FORMING IN THE LEE OF
   THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALSO QUICKLY PUSH A COLD FRONT SWD AND EWD
   THROUGH MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST. BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING THE FRONT
   WILL EXTEND FROM A SURFACE LOW ROUGHLY LOCATED IN SERN MT...SWWD
   THROUGH ERN WY AND NWRN CO...THEN WWD THROUGH CNTRL UT. STRONG AND
   GUSTY WINDS WILL ALIGN WITH LOW RHS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN NERN
   AZ...SERN UT...NRN NM...AND SRN CO...AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LEE
   TROUGH IN ERN CO. 
   
   FARTHER WEST...CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL BE ONGOING IN COASTAL SRN CA
   AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS STRONG/GUSTY NLY/DOWNSLOPE WINDS
   CONTRIBUTE TO WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW RHS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL 
   WEAKEN AFTER SUNRISE...THEN REINTENSIFY BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - NERN AZ...SERN UT...NRN NM...SRN/ERN
   CO...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG/GUSTY WINDS...LOW RH...ANTECEDENT DRYNESS
   
   STRONG/GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT IN MUCH OF
   NERN AZ...NRN NM...SERN UT...AND SWRN/S CNTRL CO...AND IN RESPONSE
   TO DEVELOPING LEE TROUGHING IN ERN CO. FOR PRE-FRONTAL
   AREAS...STRONG SUSTAINED WLY WINDS NEAR 20 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER
   GUSTS WILL ALIGN WITH RHS IN THE LOWER TEENS AND ISOLD SINGLE
   DIGITS. STRONGEST GUSTS CAN BE ANTICIPATED BY MID-AFTERNOON...BEFORE
   A SUBTLE LOW LEVEL WIND MAXIMA AROUND THE BASE OF A SHORT WAVE
   TROUGH PROGRESSES EWD. STEEP LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY WILL PROMOTE
   ERRATIC FIRE BEHAVIOR SHOULD STARTS OCCUR. IN ERN CO...SLY WINDS
   NEAR 25 TO 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE COMMON...WHILE RHS WILL
   PRIMARILY FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - COASTAL SRN CA...PRIMARILY SANTA
   BARBARA...VENTURA...AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG/GUSTY WINDS...LOW RH...WARM
   TEMPERATURES...MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT
   
   LATEST OBSERVATIONS AT MONTECITO INDICATE CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE
   ONGOING...WITH RHS IN THE UPPER TEENS/LOWER 20S...AND WIND GUSTS
   NEAR 55 MPH. EXPECT CRITICAL CONDITIONS TO STILL BE ONGOING AT THE
   START OF THE PERIOD BEFORE TEMPORARILY WEAKENING AFTER SUNRISE.
   CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT A SUNDOWNER WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP BY
   EVENING...WITH STRONG/GUSTY WINDS ALIGNING WITH LOW RHS/WARM
   TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO NELY
   OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER RHS ON FRIDAY
   MORNING VS THURSDAY MORNING...THOUGH WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN
   STRONG.
   
   ..HURLBUT.. 05/14/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 140809
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0309 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2009
   
   VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER TROUGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE NRN HIGH
   PLAINS...REACHING THE WRN GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE PERIOD. BY EARLY
   EVENING...A COLD FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM A SURFACE LOW ROUGHLY OVER
   NERN MN...SWWD THROUGH NWRN IA...SERN NEB...CNTRL KS...THEN WWD INTO
   NERN NM. ALTHOUGH WARM TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS WILL EXIST
   IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE FRONT IN SERN CO/SWRN KS...RHS ARE
   ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
   
   ELSEWHERE...CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY EXIST FOR A FEW EARLY MORNING
   HOURS IN COASTAL SRN CA BEFORE THE THREAT RAPIDLY DECREASES AFTER
   SUNRISE.
   
   ...SANTA BARBARA...VENTURA...AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES OF COASTAL SRN
   CA...
   NLY WINDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO CRITICAL CONDITIONS IN THE EARLY
   MORNING ALONG FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS IN COASTAL SRN CA...ALTHOUGH
   RHS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE AS LOW AS THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS.
   HOWEVER...STRONG WINDS...WARM TEMPERATURES...AND MARGINAL RHS WILL
   STILL LEAD TO A THREAT AS THESE AREAS HAVE REMAINED VERY DRY
   RECENTLY...AND AS MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS PERSIST.
   WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NELY AND WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER
   SUNRISE...WITH THE NELY COMPONENT GENERALLY IMPROVING RHS ACROSS THE
   AREA.
   
   ..HURLBUT.. 05/14/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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