Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 040735
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0235 AM CDT THU JUN 04 2009
   
   VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND NRN AZ...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A LARGE TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE NATION ON
   THURSDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL CONTINUE TO
   SAG S INTO THE SERN CONUS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
   ALONG THE FRONT...WHILE DRY STABLE HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER MUCH
   OF THE GREAT PLAINS. FARTHER N...A COMPACT UPPER DISTURBANCE IS
   FORECAST TO PROGRESS SEWD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE
   DAY...RESULTING IN WINDY CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE U.P. OF MI
   AND NRN WI. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LOW WILL BE POSITIONED OFF THE
   COAST OF CA...WITH STRONG JET STREAM WINDS SPREADING NE INTO THE
   GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING SURFACE WINDS BY
   EARLY AFTERNOON OVER AZ COMBINED WITH LOW RH...LEADING TO
   POTENTIALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - CENTRAL AND NRN AZ...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS...LOW RH...WARM TEMPERATURES
   
   AS A 100 KT SWLY UPPER LEVEL JET NOSES INTO THE GREAT
   BASIN...SURFACE WIND SPEEDS SHOULD RESPOND...INCREASING TO 20-30 MPH
   BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30-40 MPH.
   MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES MID LEVEL ASCENT/HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL
   SPREAD EWD FROM CA TOWARD NW AZ BY LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY
   EVENTUALLY IMPACT RH VALUES AS WELL AS MIXING OF HIGHER MOMENTUM
   ALOFT TO THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT STRONG WINDS
   WILL COMBINE WITH RH VALUES BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR A LONG ENOUGH
   DURATION TO WARRANT A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA.
   
   ...WRN UPR MI/NE LAKES REGION...
   THOUGH MIN RH DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY
   RESIDE IN THE 30S...ONGOING DRY/DROUGHT CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH
   20-30 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE U.P. OF MI AND NE LAKES REGION.
   
   ..GARNER.. 06/04/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 040736
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0236 AM CDT THU JUN 04 2009
   
   VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ERN AZ AND EXTREME WRN NM...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A WEAK TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE SERN STATES/GULF OF MEXICO
   ON FRIDAY...WHILE A PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS
   THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL FOCUS
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM THE CAROLINAS SSW TOWARD LA.
   MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT E TOWARD THE
   CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS AS AN UPPER LOW OVER CA BEGINS TO OPEN UP
   AND PROGRESS TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN/DESERT SW. STRONG WSW UPPER
   LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...RESULTING
   IN LEE TROUGH/CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. TO THE W OF THE LEE TROUGH...A
   HEAT AXIS WILL BUILD NWD THROUGH NM AND INTO CO...WHILE FARTHER
   W...A PACIFIC FRONT APPROACHES UT AND AZ. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO
   FEATURES...LOW RH AND STRONG SURFACE WINDS SHOULD OVERLAP...LEADING
   TO POTENTIALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER ERN AZ AND FAR
   WRN NM.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - ERN AZ AND EXTREME WRN NM...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS...LOW RH
   
   A BAND OF 30-40 KT SWLY 700 MB FLOW IS FORECAST TO SPREAD INTO THE
   ERN HALF OF AZ ON FRIDAY...WHICH WILL FAVOR SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-30
   MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A BAND OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDINESS IS
   FORECAST TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL...WHICH WILL LIMIT
   BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...AND HENCE MIN RH AND SURFACE WIND SPEEDS.
   HOWEVER...ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES
   MOST LOCATIONS WITHIN THE CRITICAL OUTLOOK AREA WILL APPROACH OR
   EXCEED MIN RH/WIND CRITERIA FOR A SUFFICIENT LENGTH OF TIME DURING
   THE LATE MORNING-MID AFTERNOON PERIOD.
   
   ...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND ERN NM...
   MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND ERN NM WILL
   APPROACH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO DURING
   THE AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY
   SUB-CRITICAL SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS...BUT LOW RH COMBINED WITH
   ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS.
   
   ..GARNER.. 06/04/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

Fire Weather/Forecast Products/Home