Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 040735
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0235 AM CDT THU JUN 04 2009
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND NRN AZ...
...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE NATION ON
THURSDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL CONTINUE TO
SAG S INTO THE SERN CONUS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ALONG THE FRONT...WHILE DRY STABLE HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER MUCH
OF THE GREAT PLAINS. FARTHER N...A COMPACT UPPER DISTURBANCE IS
FORECAST TO PROGRESS SEWD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE
DAY...RESULTING IN WINDY CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE U.P. OF MI
AND NRN WI. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LOW WILL BE POSITIONED OFF THE
COAST OF CA...WITH STRONG JET STREAM WINDS SPREADING NE INTO THE
GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING SURFACE WINDS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON OVER AZ COMBINED WITH LOW RH...LEADING TO
POTENTIALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - CENTRAL AND NRN AZ...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS...LOW RH...WARM TEMPERATURES
AS A 100 KT SWLY UPPER LEVEL JET NOSES INTO THE GREAT
BASIN...SURFACE WIND SPEEDS SHOULD RESPOND...INCREASING TO 20-30 MPH
BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30-40 MPH.
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES MID LEVEL ASCENT/HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL
SPREAD EWD FROM CA TOWARD NW AZ BY LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY
EVENTUALLY IMPACT RH VALUES AS WELL AS MIXING OF HIGHER MOMENTUM
ALOFT TO THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT STRONG WINDS
WILL COMBINE WITH RH VALUES BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR A LONG ENOUGH
DURATION TO WARRANT A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA.
...WRN UPR MI/NE LAKES REGION...
THOUGH MIN RH DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY
RESIDE IN THE 30S...ONGOING DRY/DROUGHT CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH
20-30 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE U.P. OF MI AND NE LAKES REGION.
..GARNER.. 06/04/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 040736
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0236 AM CDT THU JUN 04 2009
VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ERN AZ AND EXTREME WRN NM...
...SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE SERN STATES/GULF OF MEXICO
ON FRIDAY...WHILE A PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL FOCUS
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM THE CAROLINAS SSW TOWARD LA.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT E TOWARD THE
CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS AS AN UPPER LOW OVER CA BEGINS TO OPEN UP
AND PROGRESS TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN/DESERT SW. STRONG WSW UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...RESULTING
IN LEE TROUGH/CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. TO THE W OF THE LEE TROUGH...A
HEAT AXIS WILL BUILD NWD THROUGH NM AND INTO CO...WHILE FARTHER
W...A PACIFIC FRONT APPROACHES UT AND AZ. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES...LOW RH AND STRONG SURFACE WINDS SHOULD OVERLAP...LEADING
TO POTENTIALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER ERN AZ AND FAR
WRN NM.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - ERN AZ AND EXTREME WRN NM...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS...LOW RH
A BAND OF 30-40 KT SWLY 700 MB FLOW IS FORECAST TO SPREAD INTO THE
ERN HALF OF AZ ON FRIDAY...WHICH WILL FAVOR SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-30
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A BAND OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDINESS IS
FORECAST TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL...WHICH WILL LIMIT
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...AND HENCE MIN RH AND SURFACE WIND SPEEDS.
HOWEVER...ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES
MOST LOCATIONS WITHIN THE CRITICAL OUTLOOK AREA WILL APPROACH OR
EXCEED MIN RH/WIND CRITERIA FOR A SUFFICIENT LENGTH OF TIME DURING
THE LATE MORNING-MID AFTERNOON PERIOD.
...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND ERN NM...
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND ERN NM WILL
APPROACH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY
SUB-CRITICAL SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS...BUT LOW RH COMBINED WITH
ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
..GARNER.. 06/04/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...