Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

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   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 050658
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0158 AM CDT FRI JUN 05 2009
   
   VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF AZ...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE EAST....WITH
   THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE MID ATLANTIC AND SERN STATES AHEAD OF A
   SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. IN THE WRN GREAT LAKES...A STRONG SHORT WAVE
   TROUGH WILL DIVE SEWD...OVERSPREADING STRONG WLY/SWLY WINDS OVER WI
   AND MI WHERE MARGINAL RHS WILL EXIST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
   
   FARTHER W...A PERSISTENT UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO PROGRESS
   EWD...WITH A SUBSEQUENT BREAK DOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
   INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. LEE TROUGHING WILL FORM IN RESPONSE TO STRONG
   SWLY WINDS ALOFT...WHILE A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WILL LINGER
   FROM THE WA/ID BORDERS SWD/SEWD INTO UT AND AZ. GUSTY WINDS CAN BE
   EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SWRN STATES...ALTHOUGH GENERALLY WITH
   MARGINAL RHS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS MUCH OF AZ...WHERE LOW
   RHS WILL PERSIST.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - MUCH OF AZ...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS...LOW RH
   
   ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO HIGH CLOUD COVER
   DURING THE AFTERNOON...CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT A DRY SLOT SEEN
   ON WV IMAGERY AHEAD OF THE LOW ACROSS SRN CA/SWRN NV AS OF 06Z WILL
   SHIFT EWD THROUGH THE DAY...AND WILL BE POSITIONED OVER MUCH OF AZ
   AND SWRN UT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR FAVORABLE
   HEATING AND THEREFORE MIXING OF STRONG 30 TO 40 KT 700 MB WINDS TO
   THE SURFACE. SUSTAINED SURFACE SPEEDS OF NEAR 25 MPH CAN BE
   ANTICIPATED...WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH. RHS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS.
   SHOULD MORE HEATING OCCUR THAN MODEL FORECAST...STRONGER GUSTS AND
   LOWER RHS CAN BE ANTICIPATED.
   
   ...SWRN UT...
   AS MENTIONED IN THE CRITICAL AREA DISCUSSION...FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE IN SWRN UT...WITH STRONG WINDS NEAR 25
   MPH GUSTING TO 40 MPH...AND RHS IN THE TEENS. HOWEVER...LOCAL
   AGENCIES HAVE INDICATED THAT FUELS ARE NOT CURED IN THESE AREAS.
   THEREFORE...DESPITE FAVORABLE METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS...A CRITICAL
   HAS NOT BEEN OUTLINED.
   
   ...NM...
   ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG ACROSS MUCH OF NM...HOTTER
   TEMPERATURES AND RHS IN THE TEENS WILL STILL POSE A THREAT.
   CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH CRITICAL FOR SHORT DURATIONS.
   
   ...NRN WI/NRN MI...
   A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO NERN ND/NRN MN AS OF 07Z WILL
   QUICKLY DIVE SEWD THROUGH THE DAY...OVERSPREADING STRONG WLY/SWLY
   WINDS ACROSS NRN WI AND MI. DESPITE RELATIVELY LOW MIXING
   HEIGHTS...30 TO 40 KT WINDS AT 850 MB WILL LIKELY GUST TO THE
   SURFACE AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID 60S TO UPPER 70S.
   SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS CAN BE
   ANTICIPATED. MARGINAL RHS SHOULD SOMEWHAT TEMPER THE OVERALL THREAT.
   
   ..HURLBUT.. 06/05/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 050811
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0311 AM CDT FRI JUN 05 2009
   
   VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN/CNTRL AZ...NM...WRN TX...TX/OK
   PANHANDLES...SWRN KS...SERN CO...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD INTO ID/MT WILL BEGIN TO
   PHASE WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER CNTRL CA/SRN NV. AHEAD OF THIS...STRONG
   SWLY JET WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE SWRN STATES...WITH LEE
   CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING NEAR THE SERN CO/SWRN KS BORDERS. A DRYLINE
   WILL EXTEND SWD OF THE LOW THROUGH THE OK/TX BORDERS...THEN SSWWD TO
   THE BIG BEND AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SWWD THROUGH SERN CO
   INTO SWRN NM. BEHIND THESE FEATURES...STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
   ALIGN WITH HOT TEMPERATURES AND LOW RHS...WITH A WIDESPREAD FIRE
   THREAT ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SRN/CNTRL AZ...NM...WRN TX...TX/OK
   PANHANDLES...SWRN KS...SERN CO...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS...LOW RH
   
   AS THE UPPER LOWS BEGIN TO PHASE...A STRONG 30 TO 40 KT 700 MB JET
   AXIS AND 50 TO 60 KT 500 MB JET AXIS WILL OVERSPREAD THE SWRN STATES
   INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...HOT TEMPERATURES
   AND DEEP MIXING HEIGHTS WILL PROMOTE SUSTAINED SWLY SURFACE WIND
   SPEEDS NEAR 25 TO 35 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS AS JET WINDS BEGIN TO
   MIX TO THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S WILL
   BE COMMON...WITH LOW 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE
   CRITICAL OUTLINE AND OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. RHS WILL PREDOMINANTLY BE
   IN THE TEENS. HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS WITHIN THE CRITICAL HAVE RECEIVED
   MORE RAINFALL RECENTLY THAN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND MAY HAVE A LESSER
   THREAT. HOWEVER...METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE FAVORABLE.
   
   ..HURLBUT.. 06/05/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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