Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 080647
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0147 AM CDT MON JUN 08 2009
   
   VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SERN AZ...MUCH OF NM...FAR WRN
   TX...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDERS WILL MOVE VERY
   LITTLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH TWO VORTICITY LOBES WILL ROTATE
   AROUND THE BASE...AFFECTING NRN PORTIONS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN
   WEST...AND THE NRN PLAINS. STRONGER NEARLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW WILL BE
   CONFINED TO THE NRN TIER OF STATES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WEAK
   EMBEDDED UPPER WAVES...BUT COOL TEMPERATURES AND MOIST CONDITIONS
   WILL LIMIT FIRE POTENTIAL.
   
   MEANWHILE...A SRN STREAM JET/SWLY WINDS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO
   STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SWRN STATES AS A DEEPENING UPPER LOW
   APPROACHES THE SRN CA COAST. ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE MID TO HIGH LEVEL
   CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY AFFECT SRN CA AND MUCH OF
   AZ...FARTHER E ACROSS SERN AZ...MUCH OF NM...AND FAR WRN TX HOT AND
   DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST...WITH STRONG/GUSTY WINDS AT THE SURFACE
   LEADING TO CRITICAL CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN.
     
   IN THE NORTHEAST...DRY CONTINENTAL NWLY FLOW WILL RETURN FOLLOWING
   THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LOW. ALTHOUGH WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW RH
   WOULD OTHERWISE BE FAVORABLE...LOW MIXING HEIGHTS WILL PREVENT
   STRONGER WIND SPEEDS FROM REACHING THE SURFACE...WHILE RECENT
   RAINFALL SHOULD TEMPER ANY FIRE THREAT.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SERN AZ...MUCH OF NM...FAR WRN TX...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS...LOW RH
   
   EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE
   SRN CA COAST...AND MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER INCREASING ACROSS SRN CA
   AND MUCH OF AZ. E OF THESE AREAS WHERE CLOUD COVER REMAINS THINNER
   AND AMPLE HEATING WILL OCCUR...TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO MID
   90S WILL BE LIKELY BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH RHS WIDELY IN 
   THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS. SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW
   DAYS...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES CAN BE ANTICIPATED...WHILE DEEP
   MIXING HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO GUST TO THE
   SURFACE. SUSTAINED SPEEDS NEAR 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH
   WILL AFFECT THE CRITICAL AREA. LITTLE RH RECOVERY CAN BE EXPECTED
   OVERNIGHT.
   
   ..HURLBUT.. 06/08/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 080738
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0238 AM CDT MON JUN 08 2009
   
   VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SERN AZ...SRN AND E CNTRL NM...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE SRN
   CA COAST...THAT WILL THEN SLOWLY PROGRESS ENEWD TOWARDS THE FOUR
   CORNERS REGION BY WED MORNING. SWLY WINDS ALOFT WILL REMAIN STRONG
   ACROSS THE SWRN STATES INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS AND TOWARDS THE WRN
   GREAT LAKES REGION. ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST...PORTIONS OF SERN AZ...SRN AND E
   CNTRL NM WILL REMAIN DRIER THAN SURROUNDING AREAS...WITH CRITICAL
   CONDITIONS LIKELY BY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
   
   ELSEWHERE...MOIST CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...WITH LITTLE FIRE THREAT
   ANTICIPATED OUTSIDE OF POTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SERN AZ...SRN AND E CNTRL NM...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS...LOW RH
   
   DIFFERENCES IN REGARDS TO TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE SRN CA LOW
   STILL EXIST...WHICH MAY LEAD TO SUBTLE CHANGES IN SUBSEQUENT
   FORECASTS. REGARDLESS...AS THE UPPER LOW PROGRESSES ENEWD...STRONG
   SWLY WINDS ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE SWRN STATES. MOISTURE WILL
   LIKELY INCREASE INTO SRN CA...AZ...AND WRN/NWRN NM...WHILE
   INSTABILITY WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF WET THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON. AT
   THE EDGE OF THIS...GENERALLY SW...S...AND E OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
   NM...ALTHOUGH MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
   SIGNIFICANTLY...CURRENT FORECASTS SUGGEST A DRY BOUNDARY
   LAYER...WITH RHS IN THE TEENS AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID 80S
   TO MID 90S. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE A FEW THOUSAND FEET LOWER THAN
   PREVIOUS DAYS...THOUGH COMPARATIVELY STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL LEAD
   TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER GUSTS AT THE SURFACE. GIVEN STRENGTH
   OF OVERALL FLOW...THERE IS POTENTIAL THAT WET THUNDERSTORMS COULD
   MOVE ENEWD INTO THE CRITICAL AREA. ADDITIONAL CONCERN LIES WITH SOME
   MODEL FORECASTS SHOWING MARGINAL RHS...RATHER THAN CRITICAL. THESE
   ISSUES WILL NEED TO BE REEXAMINED IN TOMORROWS OUTLOOK...WITH A
   DOWNGRADE TO SEE TEXT POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...FIRE CREWS SHOULD STILL BE
   CAUTIONED THAT FIRE POTENTIAL EXISTS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN SEVERAL DAYS
   OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS LEADING UP TO D2.
   
   ..HURLBUT.. 06/08/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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