Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 090647
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0147 AM CDT TUE JUN 09 2009
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW OFF THE SRN CA COAST WILL VERY SLOWLY PROGRESS ENEWD
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SWLY WINDS ALOFT WILL REMAIN STRONG ACROSS THE
SWRN STATES INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS AND TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHWEST...WHILE EXTREME SERN AZ AND ERN NM WILL REMAIN
COMPARATIVELY DRIER. A MARGINAL FIRE THREAT WILL EXIST BY
AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THESE AREAS.
ELSEWHERE...MOIST CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...WITH LITTLE FIRE THREAT
ANTICIPATED OUTSIDE OF POTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST.
...FAR SERN AZ/ERN NM...
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS THE SWRN STATES. DESPITE OTHERWISE FAVORABLE WINDS
ALOFT...CLOUD COVER WILL LEAD TO A MORE MARGINAL THREAT ACROSS FAR
SERN AZ/ERN NM THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. EVEN WITH FAVORABLE
DOWNSLOPE...CLOUD COVER WILL STILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN
YESTERDAY...WHILE RHS WILL GENERALLY BE MARGINAL...IN THE LOWER 20S
AT BEST. INCREASING MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER WILL LEAD TO LOWER MIXING
HEIGHTS THAN YESTERDAY...SOMEWHAT LIMITING HIGHER WINDS ALOFT FROM
MIXING TO THE SURFACE. DESPITE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25
MPH...GUSTS WILL NOT BE MORE THAN 5 TO 10 MPH THAN SUSTAINED SPEEDS.
INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. CURRENT PWAT ANALYSIS
SUGGESTS THAT MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE
DAY...LEADING TO WET THUNDERSTORMS. STRONGER FLOW MAY ALLOW THESE
STORMS TO MOVE ENEWD OFF HIGHER TERRAIN INTO DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER
AIR...BUT WET NATURE OF THE STORMS WILL LIKELY MOISTEN FUELS IF THIS
CAN OCCUR.
..HURLBUT.. 06/09/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 090745
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0245 AM CDT TUE JUN 09 2009
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EWD THROUGH THE CANADIAN
PROVINCES...BECOMING CENTERED NEAR THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDERS BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. APART FROM EMBEDDED WAVES...STRONGER NEARLY
ZONAL UPPER FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...THOUGH MOIST CONDITIONS WILL LIMIT FIRE POTENTIAL.
A SECOND JET AXIS WILL BE ALIGNED OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE SWRN
STATES...NEWD INTO THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. AS THE JET
EXITS...GUSTY WINDS MAY ALIGN WITH MARGINAL RHS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
ERN NM AND FAR WRN TX.
...ERN NM/FAR WRN TX...
UNCERTAINTIES IN REGARDS TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE SRN CA UPPER LOW
AND EMBEDDED WAVES WILL LIMIT A CRITICAL OUTLINE AT THE MOMENT. AS
THE SRN CA WAVE EJECTS INTO THE SRN PLAINS...INITIAL CLOUD COVER
WILL LIMIT EXTENT OF HEATING ONCE AGAIN...DESPITE OVERALL FAVORABLE
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO MARGINAL RHS. HOWEVER...SHOULD THE
WAVE EJECT FASTER...MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CLEAR FASTER AS
WELL...WHICH COULD ALLOW MORE SUFFICIENT SURFACE HEATING WHICH WOULD
SUBSEQUENTLY LOWER RHS. COMPARATIVELY HIGHER MIXING HEIGHTS SHOULD
ALLOW STRONGER WINDS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE VS D1. HOWEVER...CURRENT
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE SPLIT AS TO WHETHER RAINFALL WILL OCCUR
OVERNIGHT ON D1 AS THE WAVE MOVES OVERHEAD. ANY RAINFALL THAT OCCURS
WILL TEMPORARILY MOISTEN FUELS...LIMITING A MORE SUBSTANTIAL THREAT
FOR THE DAY. THESE AREAS WILL BE REEVALUATED IN TOMORROWS OUTLOOK.
..HURLBUT.. 06/09/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...