Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 090647
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0147 AM CDT TUE JUN 09 2009
   
   VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER LOW OFF THE SRN CA COAST WILL VERY SLOWLY PROGRESS ENEWD
   THROUGH THE PERIOD. SWLY WINDS ALOFT WILL REMAIN STRONG ACROSS THE
   SWRN STATES INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS AND TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES
   REGION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
   SOUTHWEST...WHILE EXTREME SERN AZ AND ERN NM WILL REMAIN
   COMPARATIVELY DRIER. A MARGINAL FIRE THREAT WILL EXIST BY
   AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THESE AREAS.
   
   ELSEWHERE...MOIST CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...WITH LITTLE FIRE THREAT
   ANTICIPATED OUTSIDE OF POTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST.
   
   ...FAR SERN AZ/ERN NM...
   EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE MID TO HIGH LEVEL
   CLOUDS ACROSS THE SWRN STATES. DESPITE OTHERWISE FAVORABLE WINDS
   ALOFT...CLOUD COVER WILL LEAD TO A MORE MARGINAL THREAT ACROSS FAR
   SERN AZ/ERN NM THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. EVEN WITH FAVORABLE
   DOWNSLOPE...CLOUD COVER WILL STILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN
   YESTERDAY...WHILE RHS WILL GENERALLY BE MARGINAL...IN THE LOWER 20S
   AT BEST. INCREASING MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER WILL LEAD TO LOWER MIXING
   HEIGHTS THAN YESTERDAY...SOMEWHAT LIMITING HIGHER WINDS ALOFT FROM
   MIXING TO THE SURFACE. DESPITE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25
   MPH...GUSTS WILL NOT BE MORE THAN 5 TO 10 MPH THAN SUSTAINED SPEEDS.
   INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY
   AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. CURRENT PWAT ANALYSIS
   SUGGESTS THAT MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE
   DAY...LEADING TO WET THUNDERSTORMS. STRONGER FLOW MAY ALLOW THESE
   STORMS TO MOVE ENEWD OFF HIGHER TERRAIN INTO DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER
   AIR...BUT WET NATURE OF THE STORMS WILL LIKELY MOISTEN FUELS IF THIS
   CAN OCCUR.
   
   ..HURLBUT.. 06/09/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 090745
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0245 AM CDT TUE JUN 09 2009
   
   VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EWD THROUGH THE CANADIAN
   PROVINCES...BECOMING CENTERED NEAR THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDERS BY
   LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. APART FROM EMBEDDED WAVES...STRONGER NEARLY
   ZONAL UPPER FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO THE GREAT LAKES
   REGION...THOUGH MOIST CONDITIONS WILL LIMIT FIRE POTENTIAL. 
   
   A SECOND JET AXIS WILL BE ALIGNED OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE SWRN
   STATES...NEWD INTO THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. AS THE JET
   EXITS...GUSTY WINDS MAY ALIGN WITH MARGINAL RHS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   ERN NM AND FAR WRN TX.
   
   ...ERN NM/FAR WRN TX...
   UNCERTAINTIES IN REGARDS TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE SRN CA UPPER LOW
   AND EMBEDDED WAVES WILL LIMIT A CRITICAL OUTLINE AT THE MOMENT. AS
   THE SRN CA WAVE EJECTS INTO THE SRN PLAINS...INITIAL CLOUD COVER
   WILL LIMIT EXTENT OF HEATING ONCE AGAIN...DESPITE OVERALL FAVORABLE
   DOWNSLOPE FLOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO MARGINAL RHS. HOWEVER...SHOULD THE
   WAVE EJECT FASTER...MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CLEAR FASTER AS
   WELL...WHICH COULD ALLOW MORE SUFFICIENT SURFACE HEATING WHICH WOULD
   SUBSEQUENTLY LOWER RHS. COMPARATIVELY HIGHER MIXING HEIGHTS SHOULD
   ALLOW STRONGER WINDS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE VS D1. HOWEVER...CURRENT
   DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE SPLIT AS TO WHETHER RAINFALL WILL OCCUR
   OVERNIGHT ON D1 AS THE WAVE MOVES OVERHEAD. ANY RAINFALL THAT OCCURS
   WILL TEMPORARILY MOISTEN FUELS...LIMITING A MORE SUBSTANTIAL THREAT
   FOR THE DAY. THESE AREAS WILL BE REEVALUATED IN TOMORROWS OUTLOOK.
   
   ..HURLBUT.. 06/09/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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