Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 300841
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0341 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2009
   
   VALID 301200Z - 311200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER S-CNTRL
   CANADA/N-CNTRL CONUS WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IMPULSES. AN
   UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL STAY ANCHORED ALONG THE WEST COAST AND
   STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AS MID-LEVEL IMPULSES ACROSS THE WRN GREAT BASIN
   SLIDE SEWD AND WEAKEN.
   
   ...ERN SLOPES OF THE CASCADES/SIERRAS FROM WA TO CA INTO ERN ORE/WRN
   AND CNTRL NV...
   MODEL FORECASTS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH WEAKENING A MID-LEVEL
   IMPULSE /CURRENTLY OVER SRN NV/ AND ITS ASSOCIATED DEFORMATION AXIS
   THAT EXTENDS NWWD INTO NRN CA...WITH SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS IN ITS
   WAKE. THUS...OVERALL LARGER-SCALE FORCED ASCENT SHOULD BE WEAKER
   COMPARED TO WED SUGGESTIVE OF SOMEWHAT LOWER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
   TODAY. NEVERTHELESS...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL EXIST FOR AT LEAST
   ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE
   CASCADES/SIERRAS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NWRN GREAT BASIN.
   
   VERY WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AIDED IN WETTING RAIN BENEATH SOME TSTM
   CORES WITH REPORTS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OVER THE SIERRAS AND MTNS
   OF ERN ORE ON WED. MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST W/NWLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
   WILL STRENGTHEN TODAY AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR MODEST STORM MOTION
   E/SEWD OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN. WITH RH APPROACHING CRITICALLY LOW
   VALUES TO THE EAST OF THE CASCADES/SIERRAS...THE HIGH-BASED NATURE
   OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW IGNITIONS ALONG WITH
   GUSTY/ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS OUTSIDE OF TSTM CORES.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 07/30/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 300959
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0459 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2009
   
   VALID 311200Z - 011200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
   INLAND AS A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLOWLY TRACKS EWD IN THE
   OFFSHORE WATERS W OF NRN CA.
   
   ...NRN CA/NWRN NV/SRN ORE...
   INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC
   VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL AID IN STRENGTHENING FORCED ASCENT FRI
   EVENING INTO EARLY SAT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASED TSTM
   COVERAGE/DURATION AS CONVECTION COMMENCES FRI AFTERNOON OVER THE
   CASCADES/SIERRAS TO THE SISKIYOUS. SLOW INITIAL STORM MOTIONS AND
   MODEL FORECAST PW VALUES OF 0.75 TO 1.25 IN SUGGEST DRY TSTM
   COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED WITH PREDOMINATELY WET CORES.
   HOWEVER...STRENGTHENING S/SELY MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE
   PROPAGATION OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE N/NW LATE IN THE PERIOD.
   NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER MAY
   REMAIN EARLY SAT BENEATH WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY INVOF THE NRN
   SACRAMENTO VALLEY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH A
   LOCALIZED/NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE SCENARIO...WILL DEFER TO THE
   SUBSEQUENT DAY 1 OUTLOOK FOR POSSIBLE CRITICAL AREA DELINEATION.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 07/30/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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