Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 010741
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0241 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2009
   
   VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NRN CA...MUCH OF OR...EXTREME NWRN
   NV...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS E
   ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY. TO ITS W...A RIDGE AXIS
   WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE GREAT BASIN NWD INTO THE PAC NW...WHILE
   A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS SITUATED OFF THE COAST OF CA. BY
   LATE AFTERNOON...AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ROTATE
   NWD AROUND THE E SIDE OF THE WRN CLOSED LOW. AS THIS FEATURE
   INTERACTS WITH A POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...THUNDERSTORM
   COVERAGE WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER PORTIONS OF NRN CA N ACROSS OR.
   DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF A DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER AND PERSISTENT HEAT
   AND LOW RH...WIDESPREAD FIRE STARTS MAY OCCUR DUE TO RELATIVELY DRY
   THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - NRN CA...MUCH OF OR...EXTREME NWRN
   NV...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: PERSISTENT HOT/DRY CONDITIONS...SCATTERED DRY
   THUNDERSTORMS
   
   MODEL FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT HEIGHT FALLS WILL BEGIN TO
   OCCUR OVER CA POSSIBLY IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING
   NWD AROUND THE ERN SIDE OF A CLOSED UPPER LOW POSITIONED OFF THE W
   COAST. MEANWHILE...MOISTENING MID LVL AIRMASS COMBINED WITH A STEEP
   LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WILL YIELD INCREASING POTENTIAL INSTABILITY
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS UPPER LEVEL ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH CA
   IMPULSE SPREADS INTO THE REGION...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND
   COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE FROM NRN CA NWD ACROSS OR AND PERHAPS
   EXTREME NWRN NV. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT HOT/DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS /AND
   RESULTANT CURING OF FUELS/...AS WELL AS INVERTED-V SUBCLOUD FCST
   SOUNDING PROFILES...FIRE STARTS APPEAR POSSIBLE DUE TO LIGHTNING
   STRIKES. IN ADDITION TO THE ENHANCED IGNITION
   POTENTIAL...ERRATIC/GUSTY SURFACE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE INVOF
   THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH MAY RESULT IN DANGEROUS FIRE BEHAVIOR.
   
   ...SOUTH CENTRAL TX...
   LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES LOW LEVEL SELY ONSHORE FLOW WILL
   STRENGTHEN TO NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS /WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH/...WHILE
   DAYTIME HEATING PROMOTES RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE 30S...BEFORE RH
   RECOVERY OCCURS DURING THE EVENING. DUE TO CONTINUED EXCEPTIONAL
   DROUGHT CONDITIONS...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP
   DUE TO THE INCREASING WIND SPEEDS.
   
   ..GARNER.. 08/01/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 010743
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0243 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2009
   
   VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN POSITIONED OVER THE ERN HALF
   OF THE NATION ON SUNDAY...WITH NWLY FLOW OCCURRING ALONG ITS WRN
   SIDE OVER THE N CENTRAL CONUS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
   SLIDE SWD WITHIN THIS FLOW REGIME...WHICH WILL CAUSE A SURFACE LOW
   PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE NRN HIGH
   PLAINS. FARTHER W...A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
   VIRTUALLY STATIONARY OFF THE COAST OF CA...WITH A RIDGE AXIS LOCATED
   TO ITS E OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN W AND PAC NW. AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   LOCATED WITHIN THE ERN SIDE OF THE WRN LOW MOVES TOWARD
   OR...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
   BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF THE PAC NW.
   
   ...NRN CA/OR/NWRN NV...
   AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO MOVE N TOWARD OR DURING SUNDAY
   AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS WAVE WILL ENCOUNTER
   SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY...RESULTING IN A HIGH PROBABILITY
   FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS DEPICT A RELATIVELY MOIST ENVIRONMENT /HUMID MID LEVELS
   AND BOUNDARY LAYER/ WILL BE IN PLACE /COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
   DAYS/...WHICH MAY FAVOR HEAVY RAIN PRODUCTION IN DEVELOPING STORMS.
   FOR THIS REASON...A CRITICAL OUTLOOK AREA FOR DRY THUNDER WILL NOT
   BE ISSUED AT THIS POINT.
   
   ...SOUTH CENTRAL TX...
   SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST BY MODEL
   GUIDANCE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TX. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL PROMOTE
   INLAND RH VALUES IN THE 30S AND 40S...BEFORE RECOVERY OCCURS BY
   EVENING. THESE FACTORS COMBINED WITH THE EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT MAY
   RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
   
   ...ERN MT...
   A CLIPPER LIKE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EMBEDDED WITHIN NWLY UPPER LEVEL
   FLOW IS FORECAST TO DROP S INTO THE NRN PLAINS DURING SUNDAY
   AFTERNOON. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS STORM
   SYSTEM...WITH GUSTY WINDS LIKELY BOTH AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT.
   WITH DAYTIME HEATING...A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL DEVELOP OVER
   ERN MT WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN NEAR CRITICAL
   RH VALUES...LEADING TO POSSIBLE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
   GIVEN THE OCCURRENCE OF GUSTY WINDS.
   
   ..GARNER.. 08/01/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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