Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 010741
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0241 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2009
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NRN CA...MUCH OF OR...EXTREME NWRN
NV...
...SYNOPSIS...
A SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS E
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY. TO ITS W...A RIDGE AXIS
WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE GREAT BASIN NWD INTO THE PAC NW...WHILE
A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS SITUATED OFF THE COAST OF CA. BY
LATE AFTERNOON...AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ROTATE
NWD AROUND THE E SIDE OF THE WRN CLOSED LOW. AS THIS FEATURE
INTERACTS WITH A POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER PORTIONS OF NRN CA N ACROSS OR.
DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF A DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER AND PERSISTENT HEAT
AND LOW RH...WIDESPREAD FIRE STARTS MAY OCCUR DUE TO RELATIVELY DRY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - NRN CA...MUCH OF OR...EXTREME NWRN
NV...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: PERSISTENT HOT/DRY CONDITIONS...SCATTERED DRY
THUNDERSTORMS
MODEL FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT HEIGHT FALLS WILL BEGIN TO
OCCUR OVER CA POSSIBLY IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING
NWD AROUND THE ERN SIDE OF A CLOSED UPPER LOW POSITIONED OFF THE W
COAST. MEANWHILE...MOISTENING MID LVL AIRMASS COMBINED WITH A STEEP
LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WILL YIELD INCREASING POTENTIAL INSTABILITY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS UPPER LEVEL ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH CA
IMPULSE SPREADS INTO THE REGION...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND
COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE FROM NRN CA NWD ACROSS OR AND PERHAPS
EXTREME NWRN NV. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT HOT/DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS /AND
RESULTANT CURING OF FUELS/...AS WELL AS INVERTED-V SUBCLOUD FCST
SOUNDING PROFILES...FIRE STARTS APPEAR POSSIBLE DUE TO LIGHTNING
STRIKES. IN ADDITION TO THE ENHANCED IGNITION
POTENTIAL...ERRATIC/GUSTY SURFACE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE INVOF
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH MAY RESULT IN DANGEROUS FIRE BEHAVIOR.
...SOUTH CENTRAL TX...
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES LOW LEVEL SELY ONSHORE FLOW WILL
STRENGTHEN TO NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS /WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH/...WHILE
DAYTIME HEATING PROMOTES RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE 30S...BEFORE RH
RECOVERY OCCURS DURING THE EVENING. DUE TO CONTINUED EXCEPTIONAL
DROUGHT CONDITIONS...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP
DUE TO THE INCREASING WIND SPEEDS.
..GARNER.. 08/01/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 010743
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0243 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2009
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN POSITIONED OVER THE ERN HALF
OF THE NATION ON SUNDAY...WITH NWLY FLOW OCCURRING ALONG ITS WRN
SIDE OVER THE N CENTRAL CONUS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
SLIDE SWD WITHIN THIS FLOW REGIME...WHICH WILL CAUSE A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS. FARTHER W...A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VIRTUALLY STATIONARY OFF THE COAST OF CA...WITH A RIDGE AXIS LOCATED
TO ITS E OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN W AND PAC NW. AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
LOCATED WITHIN THE ERN SIDE OF THE WRN LOW MOVES TOWARD
OR...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF THE PAC NW.
...NRN CA/OR/NWRN NV...
AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO MOVE N TOWARD OR DURING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS WAVE WILL ENCOUNTER
SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY...RESULTING IN A HIGH PROBABILITY
FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEPICT A RELATIVELY MOIST ENVIRONMENT /HUMID MID LEVELS
AND BOUNDARY LAYER/ WILL BE IN PLACE /COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
DAYS/...WHICH MAY FAVOR HEAVY RAIN PRODUCTION IN DEVELOPING STORMS.
FOR THIS REASON...A CRITICAL OUTLOOK AREA FOR DRY THUNDER WILL NOT
BE ISSUED AT THIS POINT.
...SOUTH CENTRAL TX...
SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST BY MODEL
GUIDANCE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TX. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL PROMOTE
INLAND RH VALUES IN THE 30S AND 40S...BEFORE RECOVERY OCCURS BY
EVENING. THESE FACTORS COMBINED WITH THE EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT MAY
RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
...ERN MT...
A CLIPPER LIKE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EMBEDDED WITHIN NWLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW IS FORECAST TO DROP S INTO THE NRN PLAINS DURING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS STORM
SYSTEM...WITH GUSTY WINDS LIKELY BOTH AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT.
WITH DAYTIME HEATING...A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL DEVELOP OVER
ERN MT WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN NEAR CRITICAL
RH VALUES...LEADING TO POSSIBLE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
GIVEN THE OCCURRENCE OF GUSTY WINDS.
..GARNER.. 08/01/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...