Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 020721
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0221 AM CDT SUN AUG 02 2009
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NERN CA...S CENTRAL AND SERN
ORE...NWRN NV...
...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD BELT OF CYCLONICALLY CURVED FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER
THE N CENTRAL AND NERN CONUS ON SUNDAY...WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE
IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WRN SIDE OF THIS LARGE SCALE TROUGH
DROPPING S INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE...EVENTUALLY BECOMING POSITIONED OVER THE NRN PLAINS BY
LATE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN
POSITIONED OFF THE COAST OF CA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
ROTATE N ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF THE CLOSED LOW THROUGH CA AND TOWARD
ORE. INCREASING ASCENT COMBINED WITH AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AND A
HOT/DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF NRN CA AND ORE.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - NERN CA...S CENTRAL AND SERN
ORE...NWRN NV...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: CONTINUED HOT/DRY CONDITIONS...DRY THUNDERSTORMS
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ROTATE N THROUGH CA
AND TOWARD WRN ORE DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LARGE SCALE ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND WRN ORE...WHILE MORE
ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE ERN HALF OF ORE. MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR RELATIVELY WET
STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE CRITICAL OUTLOOK
AREA...TRANSITIONING TO MORE FAVORABLE PROFILES FOR HIGH BASED DRY
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. GIVEN THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A LOW LEVEL THERMAL AXIS EXTENDING NNW BENEATH
A MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS...THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE IGNITION/S WITH
RELATIVELY DRY STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL EXIST DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
...S CENTRAL TX...
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES ANOTHER DAY OF BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW IS
POSSIBLE OVER S CENTRAL TX AS INLAND TEMPERATURES WARM TOWARDS 100
DEG F. AS TEMPERATURES WARM AND MOISTURE MIXES OUT...RH VALUES WILL
LIKELY DROP TO BETWEEN 20-40 PERCENT. THESE FACTORS COMBINED WITH
ONGOING EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT WILL RESULT IN NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.
...ERN MT...
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SEWD MOVING UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS ERN MT DURING SUNDAY. GUSTY WNWLY WINDS
COMBINED WITH WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND NEAR CRITICAL RH
VALUES WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
..GARNER.. 08/02/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 020723
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0223 AM CDT SUN AUG 02 2009
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN POSITIONED OVER THE ERN HALF
OF THE NATION ON MONDAY. TO THE W OF THIS FEATURE...A MID LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND NW ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE PAC
NW...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO RESIDE OFF THE
COAST OF CA.
...ERN ORE...
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER THE W COAST AND PAC NW IS FORECAST TO
CHANGE VERY LITTLE ON MONDAY. AT THIS TIME...STRONG LARGE SCALE
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE
ERN SIDE OF A CLOSED UPPER LOW APPEAR TO BE LACKING. AS A
RESULT...ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED WITHIN A MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER ERN ORE. A HOT/DRY AND
DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER IS EVIDENT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS...THUS
A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE DRY IN NATURE...WHICH MAY RESULT IN
ISOLATED FIRE STARTS.
...S CENTRAL TX...
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SUSTAINED ESELY SURFACE WIND SPEEDS AND
GUSTS MAY WEAKEN SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY. THUS...THE POTENTIAL FOR
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS APPEARS TO DECREASE...DESPITE THE
LIKELIHOOD OF HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND RESULTANT RH VALUES IN
THE 20S AND 30S.
..GARNER.. 08/02/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...