Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 020721
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0221 AM CDT SUN AUG 02 2009
   
   VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NERN CA...S CENTRAL AND SERN
   ORE...NWRN NV...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A BROAD BELT OF CYCLONICALLY CURVED FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER
   THE N CENTRAL AND NERN CONUS ON SUNDAY...WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE
   IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WRN SIDE OF THIS LARGE SCALE TROUGH
   DROPPING S INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND AN
   ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER
   DISTURBANCE...EVENTUALLY BECOMING POSITIONED OVER THE NRN PLAINS BY
   LATE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN
   POSITIONED OFF THE COAST OF CA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
   ROTATE N ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF THE CLOSED LOW THROUGH CA AND TOWARD
   ORE. INCREASING ASCENT COMBINED WITH AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AND A
   HOT/DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY
   THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF NRN CA AND ORE.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - NERN CA...S CENTRAL AND SERN
   ORE...NWRN NV...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: CONTINUED HOT/DRY CONDITIONS...DRY THUNDERSTORMS
   
   AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ROTATE N THROUGH CA
   AND TOWARD WRN ORE DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LARGE SCALE ASCENT
   ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCATTERED TO
   NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND WRN ORE...WHILE MORE
   ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE ERN HALF OF ORE. MODEL
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR RELATIVELY WET
   STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE CRITICAL OUTLOOK
   AREA...TRANSITIONING TO MORE FAVORABLE PROFILES FOR HIGH BASED DRY
   THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. GIVEN THE
   CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A LOW LEVEL THERMAL AXIS EXTENDING NNW BENEATH
   A MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS...THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE IGNITION/S WITH
   RELATIVELY DRY STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL EXIST DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON
   AND EVENING.
   
   ...S CENTRAL TX...
   MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES ANOTHER DAY OF BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW IS
   POSSIBLE OVER S CENTRAL TX AS INLAND TEMPERATURES WARM TOWARDS 100
   DEG F. AS TEMPERATURES WARM AND MOISTURE MIXES OUT...RH VALUES WILL
   LIKELY DROP TO BETWEEN 20-40 PERCENT. THESE FACTORS COMBINED WITH
   ONGOING EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT WILL RESULT IN NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER CONDITIONS.
   
   ...ERN MT...
   A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SEWD MOVING UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE IS
   FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS ERN MT DURING SUNDAY. GUSTY WNWLY WINDS
   COMBINED WITH WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND NEAR CRITICAL RH
   VALUES WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
   
   ..GARNER.. 08/02/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 020723
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0223 AM CDT SUN AUG 02 2009
   
   VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN POSITIONED OVER THE ERN HALF
   OF THE NATION ON MONDAY. TO THE W OF THIS FEATURE...A MID LEVEL
   RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND NW ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE PAC
   NW...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO RESIDE OFF THE
   COAST OF CA.
   
   ...ERN ORE...
   THE UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER THE W COAST AND PAC NW IS FORECAST TO
   CHANGE VERY LITTLE ON MONDAY. AT THIS TIME...STRONG LARGE SCALE
   ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE
   ERN SIDE OF A CLOSED UPPER LOW APPEAR TO BE LACKING. AS A
   RESULT...ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
   EXPECTED WITHIN A MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER ERN ORE. A HOT/DRY AND
   DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER IS EVIDENT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS...THUS
   A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE DRY IN NATURE...WHICH MAY RESULT IN
   ISOLATED FIRE STARTS.
   
   ...S CENTRAL TX...
   MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SUSTAINED ESELY SURFACE WIND SPEEDS AND
   GUSTS MAY WEAKEN SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY. THUS...THE POTENTIAL FOR
   ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS APPEARS TO DECREASE...DESPITE THE
   LIKELIHOOD OF HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND RESULTANT RH VALUES IN
   THE 20S AND 30S.
   
   ..GARNER.. 08/02/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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