Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 030746
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0246 AM CDT MON AUG 03 2009
   
   VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SERN ORE...SWRN ID...NRN
   NV...EXTREME NERN CA...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE OFF THE COAST OF CA
   ON MONDAY...WHILE A MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS/DEFORMATION ZONE WILL
   EXTEND WNW FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN W INTO THE PAC NW. LARGE SCALE
   ASCENT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW COMBINED WITH A WARM UNSTABLE AIRMASS
   WILL FAVOR SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS OVER ORE/ID DURING MONDAY
   AFTERNOON...SOME OF WHICH MAY LEAD TO FIRE STARTS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SERN ORE...SWRN ID...NRN
   NV...EXTREME NERN CA...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: CONTINUED HOT/DRY CONDITIONS...SCATTERED DRY
   THUNDERSTORMS
   
   MODEL FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN
   OVER CA AND WRN NV ON MONDAY...AND WILL BECOME HIGHLY DIFFLUENT OVER
   PORTIONS OF ID/ORE/WA. A MID/UPPER LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE EXTENDING
   WNW ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD FOCUS A CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER ORE INTO
   SWRN ID...AS WELL AS NRN CA/NV...WHERE VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES AND FAVORABLE MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. IN THE LOW
   LEVELS...A THERMAL AXIS WILL EXTEND NNW INTO ERN ORE AND SWRN
   ID...WHICH WILL PROMOTE A HOT DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
   AIRMASS...WITH SURFACE RH VALUES FALLING THROUGH THE TEENS BY
   AFTERNOON. THIS AIRMASS MAY RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL EVAPORATION OF
   FALLING PRECIPITATION...LEADING TO DRY THUNDERSTORMS AND THE
   POTENTIAL FOR FIRE IGNITIONS. STORMS WILL LIKELY BE MORE ISOLATED
   OVER THE ERN PORTION OF THE CRITICAL OUTLOOK AREA...BUT ALSO TEND TO
   BE DRIER...WHILE GREATER STORM COVERAGE AND HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
   WILL BE MORE LIKELY FARTHER W TOWARD CENTRAL ORE.
   
   ...S CENTRAL TX...
   AS INLAND TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN WARM TOWARD 100 DEG F...RH VALUES
   ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSEQUENTLY FALL INTO THE 20S AND 30S.
   MEANWHILE...SUSTAINED ONSHORE WINDS MAY APPROACH 20 MPH /WITH
   LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS/...LEADING TO A PERIOD OF NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER CONDITIONS /GIVEN THE ONGOING EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT/ OVER
   PORTIONS OF FAR S CENTRAL TX.
   
   ..GARNER.. 08/03/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 030748
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0248 AM CDT MON AUG 03 2009
   
   VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN ACTIVE NRN STREAM WILL RESIDE OVER SRN CANADA AND NRN PORTIONS OF
   THE UNITED STATES ON TUESDAY. ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
   MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
   AT THE SURFACE TRAILING SW INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE...A
   SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL DROP S THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA...WITH UPPER
   LEVEL HEIGHT AMPLIFICATION OCCURRING UPSTREAM OF THIS
   FEATURE...ALLOWING A RIDGE TO BUILD NWD THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN W
   AND NRN ROCKIES. WHILE THIS TAKES PLACE...A CLOSED LOW OFF THE COAST
   OF CA WILL SHOW SIGNS OF OPENING UP AS A STRONG JET STREAK ROUNDS
   THE BASE OF THE LOW AND SPREADS NEWD TOWARD CA AND THE WRN GREAT
   BASIN.
   
   ...ERN ORE/WRN ID...
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FAVORED OVER PORTIONS OF ORE/ID ON
   TUESDAY...AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET...AND WITHIN THE RRQ OF
   A NRN STREAM JET OVER SWRN CANADA. THESE STORMS WILL OCCUR ABOVE A
   DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS...WHICH WILL PROMOTE SUBCLOUD
   EVAPORATION OF FALLING RAIN...AND THUS POSSIBLE FIRE IGNITIONS FROM
   LIGHTNING. AT THIS TIME...QUESTIONS EXIST REGARDING THE COVERAGE OF
   DRY THUNDERSTORMS...AND A CRITICAL OUTLOOK AREA WILL BE DEFERRED TO
   THE NEXT FORECAST ISSUANCE.
   
   ...MUCH OF NV...
   MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE A 90+ KT SWLY UPPER LEVEL SPEED
   MAX...LOCATED ALONG THE SERN SIDE OF A CLOSED LOW...WILL APPROACH
   THE CENTRAL CA COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. STRENGTHENING UPPER FLOW
   WILL SPREAD ENE FROM THE JET STREAK...AND WILL AID IN
   STRENGTHING/GUSTY SURFACE WINDS OVER NV DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE
   WINDS COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING/FALLING RH VALUES WILL LEAD TO
   ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY OVER WRN PORTIONS OF
   THE STATE WHERE DROUGHT IS MOST PRONOUNCED. IN ADDITION TO THE
   INCREASING WIND SPEEDS...ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE.
   HOWEVER...COVERAGE CURRENTLY DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR A
   CRITICAL OUTLOOK AREA.
   
   ...S CENTRAL TX...
   ANOTHER DAY OF STRONG INLAND HEATING IS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF
   FAR S CENTRAL TX ON TUESDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SELY WINDS
   GUSTING UP TO 20-30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. THUS...NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE ONGOING DROUGHT.
   
   ..GARNER.. 08/03/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

Fire Weather/Forecast Products/Home