Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

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   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 040745
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0245 AM CDT TUE AUG 04 2009
   
   VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND BUILD NWD ACROSS
   THE INTERMOUNTAIN W...AHEAD OF A CLOSED LOW POSITIONED OFF THE COAST
   OF CA. A VERY WARM STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT CENTERED OVER THE
   FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL BE POSITIONED BENEATH THE UPPER
   RIDGE...FAVORING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ALONG ITS PERIPHERY
   OVER PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND PAC NW...AS WELL AS THE SRN
   ROCKIES. THESE STORMS MAY POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED FIRE STARTS.
   
   ...ERN ORE AND SWRN ID...
   AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF
   ERN ORE/SWRN ID ON TUESDAY. DUE TO THEIR OCCURRENCE WITHIN A MID
   LEVEL RIDGE AXIS...STORM MOTION WILL LIKELY BE SLOW...WHICH MAY LEAD
   TO GROUND WETTING RAINFALL. HOWEVER...THE INITIAL STAGES OF THIS
   ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY HOT
   SURFACE TEMPERATURES/LOW RH VALUES AND INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDING
   STRUCTURE...WHICH MAY FAVOR ISOLATED FIRE STARTS.
   
   ...MUCH OF NV...
   AS MID/UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELDS STRENGTHEN DURING TUESDAY...AND
   STRONG SURFACE HEATING LEADS TO A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...WIND
   GUSTS MAY APPROACH 20-30 MPH BY AFTERNOON. THESE GUSTS COMBINED WITH
   RH VALUES IN THE TEENS MAY RESULT IN NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
   DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF WRN AND NRN NV...AND WILL POSE A THREAT FOR
   FIRE IGNITIONS.
   
   ...CENTRAL/NRN PORTIONS OF NM...
   MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/NRN NM
   MAY EXPERIENCE HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE
   AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS COULD INITIALLY POSE A THREAT FOR FIRE
   IGNITIONS...BUT THEIR SLOW MOVEMENT SUGGESTS THAT WETTING RAINFALL
   SHOULD NEGATE THE NEED FOR A CRITICAL OUTLOOK AREA.
   
   ..GARNER.. 08/04/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 040747
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0247 AM CDT TUE AUG 04 2009
   
   VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NV...WRN UT...FAR NWRN
   AZ...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A LARGE MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME CENTERED OVER
   THE DESERT SW ON WEDNESDAY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS AND WARM
   LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES EXTENDING NWD THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN W.
   MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW POSITIONED OFF OF THE COAST OF
   CA WILL BEGIN TO OPEN UP AS A STRONG...100 KT SWLY JET SPREADS NE
   TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN. THE STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS COMBINED WITH
   A HOT/DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN POTENTIALLY CRITICAL
   FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF NV...UT...AND AZ.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - MUCH OF NV...WRN UT...FAR NWRN AZ...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG GUSTY WINDS...LOW RH...ABNORMALLY DRY TO
   LOCALLY SEVERE DROUGHT
   
   A SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WIND FIELDS WILL
   BEGIN TO SPREAD E-NEWD THROUGH CA AND TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN ON
   WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...SUSTAINED WINDS WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN
   TO 20-30 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS
   POSSIBLE. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES LARGE MID LEVEL RH VALUES WILL
   INITIALLY BE LOCATED ACROSS THE CRITICAL OUTLOOK AREA...BUT THEN
   DEPICT A DRY SLOT ADVANCING NE INTO NV BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
   HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS A POSSIBLE
   LIMITING FACTOR...AS DECREASED DAYTIME HEATING WILL TAKE PLACE
   RESULTING IN WEAKER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AS WELL AS PRE-HEATING OF
   FUELS. AS A RESULT...A LOW END CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER SCENARIO IS
   CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
   
   ...ERN ORE/SWRN ID/NRN NV...
   MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME POTENTIAL FOR RELATIVELY FAST MOVING
   CLUSTERS OF STORMS OVER PORTIONS OF ERN ORE/SWRN ID/NRN NV DURING
   WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE FAST STORM MOTION...FAIRLY DRY
   BOUNDARY LAYER...AND DRY FUELS COULD RESULT IN FIRE STARTS DUE TO
   LIGHTNING. HOWEVER...ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT THIS POINT WITH
   REGARD TO DETAILS CONCERNING CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND
   EVOLUTION...THAT AN OUTLOOK AREA WILL BE DEFERRED TO THE NEXT
   FORECAST ISSUANCE.
   
   ...ERN AZ AND PORTIONS OF WRN/CENTRAL NM...
   MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR ERN AZ AND WRN/CENTRAL NM DISPLAY
   INVERTED-V TYPE PROFILES WITH HOT SURFACE TEMPERATURES/LOW RH
   VALUES. THIS ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS AND
   A THREAT FOR FIRE IGNITIONS. HOWEVER...A WIDESPREAD DRY THUNDER
   EPISODE IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED DUE TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING
   AND POTENTIAL FOR GENERALLY SLOW STORM MOTION.
   
   ..GARNER.. 08/04/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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