Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 040745
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0245 AM CDT TUE AUG 04 2009
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND BUILD NWD ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN W...AHEAD OF A CLOSED LOW POSITIONED OFF THE COAST
OF CA. A VERY WARM STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT CENTERED OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL BE POSITIONED BENEATH THE UPPER
RIDGE...FAVORING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ALONG ITS PERIPHERY
OVER PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND PAC NW...AS WELL AS THE SRN
ROCKIES. THESE STORMS MAY POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED FIRE STARTS.
...ERN ORE AND SWRN ID...
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF
ERN ORE/SWRN ID ON TUESDAY. DUE TO THEIR OCCURRENCE WITHIN A MID
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS...STORM MOTION WILL LIKELY BE SLOW...WHICH MAY LEAD
TO GROUND WETTING RAINFALL. HOWEVER...THE INITIAL STAGES OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY HOT
SURFACE TEMPERATURES/LOW RH VALUES AND INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDING
STRUCTURE...WHICH MAY FAVOR ISOLATED FIRE STARTS.
...MUCH OF NV...
AS MID/UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELDS STRENGTHEN DURING TUESDAY...AND
STRONG SURFACE HEATING LEADS TO A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...WIND
GUSTS MAY APPROACH 20-30 MPH BY AFTERNOON. THESE GUSTS COMBINED WITH
RH VALUES IN THE TEENS MAY RESULT IN NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF WRN AND NRN NV...AND WILL POSE A THREAT FOR
FIRE IGNITIONS.
...CENTRAL/NRN PORTIONS OF NM...
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/NRN NM
MAY EXPERIENCE HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS COULD INITIALLY POSE A THREAT FOR FIRE
IGNITIONS...BUT THEIR SLOW MOVEMENT SUGGESTS THAT WETTING RAINFALL
SHOULD NEGATE THE NEED FOR A CRITICAL OUTLOOK AREA.
..GARNER.. 08/04/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 040747
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0247 AM CDT TUE AUG 04 2009
VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NV...WRN UT...FAR NWRN
AZ...
...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME CENTERED OVER
THE DESERT SW ON WEDNESDAY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS AND WARM
LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES EXTENDING NWD THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN W.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW POSITIONED OFF OF THE COAST OF
CA WILL BEGIN TO OPEN UP AS A STRONG...100 KT SWLY JET SPREADS NE
TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN. THE STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS COMBINED WITH
A HOT/DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN POTENTIALLY CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF NV...UT...AND AZ.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - MUCH OF NV...WRN UT...FAR NWRN AZ...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG GUSTY WINDS...LOW RH...ABNORMALLY DRY TO
LOCALLY SEVERE DROUGHT
A SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WIND FIELDS WILL
BEGIN TO SPREAD E-NEWD THROUGH CA AND TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN ON
WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...SUSTAINED WINDS WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN
TO 20-30 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS
POSSIBLE. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES LARGE MID LEVEL RH VALUES WILL
INITIALLY BE LOCATED ACROSS THE CRITICAL OUTLOOK AREA...BUT THEN
DEPICT A DRY SLOT ADVANCING NE INTO NV BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS A POSSIBLE
LIMITING FACTOR...AS DECREASED DAYTIME HEATING WILL TAKE PLACE
RESULTING IN WEAKER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AS WELL AS PRE-HEATING OF
FUELS. AS A RESULT...A LOW END CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER SCENARIO IS
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
...ERN ORE/SWRN ID/NRN NV...
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME POTENTIAL FOR RELATIVELY FAST MOVING
CLUSTERS OF STORMS OVER PORTIONS OF ERN ORE/SWRN ID/NRN NV DURING
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE FAST STORM MOTION...FAIRLY DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER...AND DRY FUELS COULD RESULT IN FIRE STARTS DUE TO
LIGHTNING. HOWEVER...ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT THIS POINT WITH
REGARD TO DETAILS CONCERNING CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND
EVOLUTION...THAT AN OUTLOOK AREA WILL BE DEFERRED TO THE NEXT
FORECAST ISSUANCE.
...ERN AZ AND PORTIONS OF WRN/CENTRAL NM...
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR ERN AZ AND WRN/CENTRAL NM DISPLAY
INVERTED-V TYPE PROFILES WITH HOT SURFACE TEMPERATURES/LOW RH
VALUES. THIS ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS AND
A THREAT FOR FIRE IGNITIONS. HOWEVER...A WIDESPREAD DRY THUNDER
EPISODE IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED DUE TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING
AND POTENTIAL FOR GENERALLY SLOW STORM MOTION.
..GARNER.. 08/04/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...