Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 050816
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0316 AM CDT WED AUG 05 2009
VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NV...ERN CA...WRN/SWRN
UT...NWRN AZ...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND ERN ORE...NERN
CA...NRN NV...SWRN ID...FAR NWRN UT...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER NM WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A
HOT/DRY AIRMASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WRN CONUS ON WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE...A CLOSED UPPER LOW POSITIONED OFF THE COAST OF CA WILL
BEGIN TO OPEN UP AND PROGRESS EWD. AS THIS TAKES PLACE...THE HEIGHT
GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN...RESULTING IN INCREASING DEEP LAYER SSWLY
FLOW ACROSS THE WRN GREAT BASIN INTO THE PAC NW. THESE FACTORS WILL
PROMOTE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...DUE BOTH TO LOW RH/STRONG
WINDS AS WELL AS DRY THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - MUCH OF NV...ERN CA...WRN/SWRN
UT...NWRN AZ...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: HOT TEMPERATURES...LOW RH VALUES...STRONG
WINDS...ABNORMALLY DRY TO LOCALLY SEVERE DROUGHT
MODEL FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT DEEP LAYER WIND
FIELDS WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF
THE WRN CONUS AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE NRN CA COAST. AS A
RESULT...SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 20-30 MPH ARE EXPECTED...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS. THOUGH MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL BE
PRESENT ACROSS THE CRITICAL OUTLOOK AREA INITIALLY...MODEL FORECASTS
INDICATE THAT A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL ADVANCE NEWD INTO THE GREAT
BASIN...WHICH WILL PROMOTE ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING AS WELL AS
DOWNWARD MIXING OF DRY AIR. DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE APPROACHING
UPPER DISTURBANCE...CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES WILL COMBINE WITH
STRONG WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS A FAIRLY LARGE REGION FROM
NWRN AZ NWD INTO NV/UT AND ERN CA.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - CENTRAL AND ERN ORE...NERN CA...NRN
NV...SWRN ID...FAR NWRN UT...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: CONTINUED HOT/DRY CONDITIONS...SCATTERED DRY
THUNDERSTORMS
AS A 100+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK PUNCHES NEWD ACROSS CA AND
TOWARD SRN ORE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF NERN CA/NRN NV INTO ERN
ORE/SWRN ID. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE CLOUD BASES WILL BE
AROUND 3 KM AGL...WITH SURFACE CONDITIONS CHARACTERIZED BY
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S/90S AND RH IN THE TEENS. THOUGH PWAT VALUES
APPEAR TO BE ONLY MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS...THE
STRONG SSWLY TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS WILL RESULT IN FAST NNE STORM
MOTION/S...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE PROBABILITY FOR LIGHTNING IGNITED
FIRES DUE TO MINIMIZED RAINFALL.
...ERN AZ AND WRN-NRN NM...
ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
OVER PORTIONS OF ERN AZ INTO WRN AND NRN NM DURING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION INDICATE HIGH CLOUD
BASES ARE LIKELY AS INVERTED-V TYPE BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILES DEVELOP
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THUS...LIGHTNING IGNITED FIRES WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY...THOUGH SLOW STORM MOTION AND WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT
WILL NOT SUPPORT A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK AREA.
..GARNER.. 08/05/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 050818
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0318 AM CDT WED AUG 05 2009
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF UT...ERN AND SRN NV...NRN
AND WRN AZ...SERN CA...
...SYNOPSIS...
A SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS CA AND TOWARD NV ON THURSDAY...WITH VERY STRONG
WIND FIELDS SPREADING E INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THIS FLOW ALOFT WILL
ENCOUNTER A LOW-MID LEVEL THERMAL AXIS EMBEDDED WITHIN A RIDGE
EXTENDING NWD THROUGH THE CENTRAL/NRN ROCKIES...PROMOTING CRITICAL
TO POSSIBLY EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - MUCH OF UT...ERN AND SRN NV...NRN
AND WRN AZ...SERN CA...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: VERY STRONG WINDS...LOW RH...HOT
TEMPERATURES...ABNORMALLY DRY TO LOCALLY SEVERE DROUGHT
CRITICAL TO EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ON THURSDAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE DESERT SW AND GREAT BASIN. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS CA AND
TOWARD WRN NV DURING THURSDAY. A SEASONABLY INTENSE MID LEVEL SWLY
SPEED MAX /60 KT AT 500 MB...40 KT AT 700 MB/ IS EXPECTED TO
PROGRESS ENEWD AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. AS THIS OCCURS...A DRY SLOT IS
FORECAST TO SPREAD INTO THE GREAT BASIN...LIKELY PUNCHING INTO ERN
NV/WRN UT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR
LOWEST RH VALUES AND VERY STRONG SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS
/POSSIBLY UP TO 50 MPH/. THIS AREA MAY REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO
EXTREMELY CRITICAL DURING THE NEXT FORECAST ISSUANCE. A SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL ALSO PROGRESS E INTO THE REGION WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH...MOVING INTO CENTRAL/ERN NV BY LATE AFTERNOON...WHERE
SHIFTING WINDS AND ERRATIC FIRE BEHAVIOR WILL BE POSSIBLE.
..GARNER.. 08/05/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...