Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 050816
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0316 AM CDT WED AUG 05 2009
   
   VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NV...ERN CA...WRN/SWRN
   UT...NWRN AZ...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND ERN ORE...NERN
   CA...NRN NV...SWRN ID...FAR NWRN UT...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER NM WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A
   HOT/DRY AIRMASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WRN CONUS ON WEDNESDAY.
   MEANWHILE...A CLOSED UPPER LOW POSITIONED OFF THE COAST OF CA WILL
   BEGIN TO OPEN UP AND PROGRESS EWD. AS THIS TAKES PLACE...THE HEIGHT
   GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN...RESULTING IN INCREASING DEEP LAYER SSWLY
   FLOW ACROSS THE WRN GREAT BASIN INTO THE PAC NW. THESE FACTORS WILL
   PROMOTE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...DUE BOTH TO LOW RH/STRONG
   WINDS AS WELL AS DRY THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - MUCH OF NV...ERN CA...WRN/SWRN
   UT...NWRN AZ...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: HOT TEMPERATURES...LOW RH VALUES...STRONG
   WINDS...ABNORMALLY DRY TO LOCALLY SEVERE DROUGHT
   
   MODEL FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT DEEP LAYER WIND
   FIELDS WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF
   THE WRN CONUS AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE NRN CA COAST. AS A
   RESULT...SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 20-30 MPH ARE EXPECTED...WITH
   LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS. THOUGH MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL BE
   PRESENT ACROSS THE CRITICAL OUTLOOK AREA INITIALLY...MODEL FORECASTS
   INDICATE THAT A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL ADVANCE NEWD INTO THE GREAT
   BASIN...WHICH WILL PROMOTE ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING AS WELL AS
   DOWNWARD MIXING OF DRY AIR. DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE APPROACHING
   UPPER DISTURBANCE...CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES WILL COMBINE WITH
   STRONG WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS A FAIRLY LARGE REGION FROM
   NWRN AZ NWD INTO NV/UT AND ERN CA.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - CENTRAL AND ERN ORE...NERN CA...NRN
   NV...SWRN ID...FAR NWRN UT...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: CONTINUED HOT/DRY CONDITIONS...SCATTERED DRY
   THUNDERSTORMS
   
   AS A 100+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK PUNCHES NEWD ACROSS CA AND
   TOWARD SRN ORE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
   ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF NERN CA/NRN NV INTO ERN
   ORE/SWRN ID. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE CLOUD BASES WILL BE
   AROUND 3 KM AGL...WITH SURFACE CONDITIONS CHARACTERIZED BY
   TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S/90S AND RH IN THE TEENS. THOUGH PWAT VALUES
   APPEAR TO BE ONLY MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS...THE
   STRONG SSWLY TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS WILL RESULT IN FAST NNE STORM
   MOTION/S...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE PROBABILITY FOR LIGHTNING IGNITED
   FIRES DUE TO MINIMIZED RAINFALL.
   
   ...ERN AZ AND WRN-NRN NM...
   ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
   OVER PORTIONS OF ERN AZ INTO WRN AND NRN NM DURING WEDNESDAY
   AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION INDICATE HIGH CLOUD
   BASES ARE LIKELY AS INVERTED-V TYPE BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILES DEVELOP
   WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THUS...LIGHTNING IGNITED FIRES WILL BE A
   POSSIBILITY...THOUGH SLOW STORM MOTION AND WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT
   WILL NOT SUPPORT A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK AREA.
   
   ..GARNER.. 08/05/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 050818
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0318 AM CDT WED AUG 05 2009
   
   VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF UT...ERN AND SRN NV...NRN
   AND WRN AZ...SERN CA...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
   WILL MOVE ACROSS CA AND TOWARD NV ON THURSDAY...WITH VERY STRONG
   WIND FIELDS SPREADING E INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THIS FLOW ALOFT WILL
   ENCOUNTER A LOW-MID LEVEL THERMAL AXIS EMBEDDED WITHIN A RIDGE
   EXTENDING NWD THROUGH THE CENTRAL/NRN ROCKIES...PROMOTING CRITICAL
   TO POSSIBLY EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - MUCH OF UT...ERN AND SRN NV...NRN
   AND WRN AZ...SERN CA...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: VERY STRONG WINDS...LOW RH...HOT
   TEMPERATURES...ABNORMALLY DRY TO LOCALLY SEVERE DROUGHT
   
   CRITICAL TO EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
   ON THURSDAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE DESERT SW AND GREAT BASIN. MODEL
   GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS CA AND
   TOWARD WRN NV DURING THURSDAY. A SEASONABLY INTENSE MID LEVEL SWLY
   SPEED MAX /60 KT AT 500 MB...40 KT AT 700 MB/ IS EXPECTED TO
   PROGRESS ENEWD AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. AS THIS OCCURS...A DRY SLOT IS
   FORECAST TO SPREAD INTO THE GREAT BASIN...LIKELY PUNCHING INTO ERN
   NV/WRN UT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR
   LOWEST RH VALUES AND VERY STRONG SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS
   /POSSIBLY UP TO 50 MPH/. THIS AREA MAY REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO
   EXTREMELY CRITICAL DURING THE NEXT FORECAST ISSUANCE. A SURFACE COLD
   FRONT WILL ALSO PROGRESS E INTO THE REGION WITH THE UPPER
   TROUGH...MOVING INTO CENTRAL/ERN NV BY LATE AFTERNOON...WHERE
   SHIFTING WINDS AND ERRATIC FIRE BEHAVIOR WILL BE POSSIBLE.
   
   ..GARNER.. 08/05/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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