Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 060743
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0243 AM CDT THU AUG 06 2009
   
   VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
   
   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SRN AND ERN
   NV...SWRN UT...NWRN AZ...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF UT...NRN AZ...PORTIONS OF
   SRN CA...ERN HALF OF NV...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE E ACROSS CA AND INTO WRN
   PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN ON THURSDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
   RESULT IN RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS THROUGH THE DEPTH OF THE
   TROPOSPHERE...PROMOTING CRITICAL TO EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS AS TEMPERATURES WARM WITHIN AN ALREADY DRY LOW LEVEL
   AIRMASS.
   
   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PORTIONS OF SRN AND ERN
   NV...SWRN UT...NWRN AZ...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: VERY STRONG WINDS...HOT TEMPERATURES AND LOW
   RH...ABNORMALLY DRY TO LOCALLY SEVERE DROUGHT
   
   MODEL FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A 90+ KT SWLY UPPER LEVEL JET
   WILL PROGRESS EWD INTO THE GREAT BASIN DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AS
   THIS TAKES PLACE...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN
   /CHARACTERIZED BY A 40 KT SSWLY 700 MB SPEED MAX/. A PRONOUNCED MID
   LEVEL DRY SLOT IS FORECAST TO ACCOMPANY THE UPPER JET...ENTERING SRN
   NV/SWRN UT/NWRN AZ BY PEAK HEATING. MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR
   TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 YIELD CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES /WHICH ARE
   EXPERIENCING POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY PER LATEST SURFACE
   OBSERVATIONS/...WHILE THE INTENSE DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS WILL
   PROMOTE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25-35 MPH...AND GUSTS POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS
   40-50 MPH. THESE CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN A WIND DRIVEN EXTREMELY
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER SCENARIO.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - MUCH OF UT...NRN AZ...PORTIONS OF
   SRN CA...ERN HALF OF NV...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS...LOW RH...ABNORMALLY DRY TO
   LOCALLY SEVERE DROUGHT
   
   WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE AS STRONG AS THOSE WHICH WILL
   OCCUR WITHIN THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA.
   HOWEVER...WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW RH VALUES COMBINED WITH
   SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 20-30 MPH WILL PROMOTE CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER CONDITIONS AS WIND FIELDS INCREASE WITH THE APPROACHING
   TROUGH. IN ADDITION...A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E THROUGH
   NV...REACHING CENTRAL/ERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE BY LATE AFTERNOON. A
   WIND SHIFT WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH THE PASSING FRONT...WHICH COULD
   RESULT IN ERRATIC FIRE BEHAVIOR.
   
   ...TX PANHANDLE/NERN NM/SERN CO/OK PANHANDLE/SWRN KS...
   AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES E INTO THE PLAINS...AND WSWLY FLOW ALOFT
   INCREASES...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE OVER THE
   NRN HIGH PLAINS...WITH A LEE TROUGH EXTENDING SWD INTO THE SRN HIGH
   PLAINS. AS THIS TAKES PLACE...LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE
   IN SPEED TO AROUND 20 MPH FOR AN HR OR TWO...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-30
   MPH. IN ADDITION...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD INTO THE GREAT
   PLAINS...ALLOWING SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGH THE 90S...AND
   MINIMUM RH VALUES TO FALL INTO THE TEENS. THESE FACTORS WILL PROMOTE
   ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
   
   ..GARNER.. 08/06/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 060745
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0245 AM CDT THU AUG 06 2009
   
   VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NRN AZ...NWRN NM...SRN AND SERN
   UT...FAR SWRN CO...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ENE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND
   THEN BEGIN LIFTING TOWARD THE NRN ROCKIES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS
   THIS HAPPENS...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO EMERGE OVER THE
   NRN PLAINS...LEADING TO STRENGTHENING SLY SURFACE WINDS OVER THE
   GREAT PLAINS. MEANWHILE...STRONG SWLY JET STREAM WINDS WILL SPREAD
   ACROSS A PRE-EXISTING WARM/DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS...RESULTING IN
   STRONG/GUSTY WINDS AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM
   PORTIONS OF THE DESERT SW INTO THE ERN GREAT BASIN.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - NRN AZ...NWRN NM...SRN AND SERN
   UT...FAR SWRN CO...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS...WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW
   RH...ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS
   
   AS THE WRN CONUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT NEWD TOWARD THE
   NRN ROCKIES...A STRONG MID LEVEL SWLY SPEED MAX WILL TRANSLATE EWD
   WITHIN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...SPREADING ACROSS AZ/UT AND WRN CO
   DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DRY MID LEVEL AIR ADVANCING INTO THE REGION
   WILL AID IN DECREASING RH VALUES /INTO THE TEENS/ AS AFTERNOON
   SURFACE HEATING TAKES PLACE AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING STRENGTHENS.
   WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 20-30 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 30-40 MPH
   BENEATH THE UPPER JET...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS APPEAR
   LIKELY.
   
   ...SRN KS/NRN OK/TX PANHANDLE...
   A SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO EXTEND ALONG AN AXIS FROM WRN
   OK INTO S CENTRAL KS AND THEN NEWD INTO MO/IA DURING FRIDAY
   AFTERNOON. WITH THIS FEATURE...SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS UP TO 20 MPH
   AND GUSTS AOA 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. MEANWHILE...THE ERN EDGE OF A
   PLUME OF HOT TEMPERATURES/LOW RH VALUES WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION.
   THESE FACTORS MAY RESULT IN NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS...THOUGH IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER FUEL CONDITIONS WOULD
   SUPPORT AN OUTLOOK AREA AT THIS TIME.
   
   ..GARNER.. 08/06/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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