Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 060743
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0243 AM CDT THU AUG 06 2009
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SRN AND ERN
NV...SWRN UT...NWRN AZ...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF UT...NRN AZ...PORTIONS OF
SRN CA...ERN HALF OF NV...
...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE E ACROSS CA AND INTO WRN
PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN ON THURSDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
RESULT IN RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS THROUGH THE DEPTH OF THE
TROPOSPHERE...PROMOTING CRITICAL TO EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AS TEMPERATURES WARM WITHIN AN ALREADY DRY LOW LEVEL
AIRMASS.
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PORTIONS OF SRN AND ERN
NV...SWRN UT...NWRN AZ...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: VERY STRONG WINDS...HOT TEMPERATURES AND LOW
RH...ABNORMALLY DRY TO LOCALLY SEVERE DROUGHT
MODEL FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A 90+ KT SWLY UPPER LEVEL JET
WILL PROGRESS EWD INTO THE GREAT BASIN DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AS
THIS TAKES PLACE...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN
/CHARACTERIZED BY A 40 KT SSWLY 700 MB SPEED MAX/. A PRONOUNCED MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT IS FORECAST TO ACCOMPANY THE UPPER JET...ENTERING SRN
NV/SWRN UT/NWRN AZ BY PEAK HEATING. MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR
TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 YIELD CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES /WHICH ARE
EXPERIENCING POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY PER LATEST SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS/...WHILE THE INTENSE DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS WILL
PROMOTE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25-35 MPH...AND GUSTS POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS
40-50 MPH. THESE CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN A WIND DRIVEN EXTREMELY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER SCENARIO.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - MUCH OF UT...NRN AZ...PORTIONS OF
SRN CA...ERN HALF OF NV...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS...LOW RH...ABNORMALLY DRY TO
LOCALLY SEVERE DROUGHT
WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE AS STRONG AS THOSE WHICH WILL
OCCUR WITHIN THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA.
HOWEVER...WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW RH VALUES COMBINED WITH
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 20-30 MPH WILL PROMOTE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS AS WIND FIELDS INCREASE WITH THE APPROACHING
TROUGH. IN ADDITION...A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E THROUGH
NV...REACHING CENTRAL/ERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE BY LATE AFTERNOON. A
WIND SHIFT WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH THE PASSING FRONT...WHICH COULD
RESULT IN ERRATIC FIRE BEHAVIOR.
...TX PANHANDLE/NERN NM/SERN CO/OK PANHANDLE/SWRN KS...
AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES E INTO THE PLAINS...AND WSWLY FLOW ALOFT
INCREASES...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE OVER THE
NRN HIGH PLAINS...WITH A LEE TROUGH EXTENDING SWD INTO THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS. AS THIS TAKES PLACE...LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE
IN SPEED TO AROUND 20 MPH FOR AN HR OR TWO...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-30
MPH. IN ADDITION...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS...ALLOWING SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGH THE 90S...AND
MINIMUM RH VALUES TO FALL INTO THE TEENS. THESE FACTORS WILL PROMOTE
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
..GARNER.. 08/06/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 060745
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0245 AM CDT THU AUG 06 2009
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NRN AZ...NWRN NM...SRN AND SERN
UT...FAR SWRN CO...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ENE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND
THEN BEGIN LIFTING TOWARD THE NRN ROCKIES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS
THIS HAPPENS...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO EMERGE OVER THE
NRN PLAINS...LEADING TO STRENGTHENING SLY SURFACE WINDS OVER THE
GREAT PLAINS. MEANWHILE...STRONG SWLY JET STREAM WINDS WILL SPREAD
ACROSS A PRE-EXISTING WARM/DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS...RESULTING IN
STRONG/GUSTY WINDS AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM
PORTIONS OF THE DESERT SW INTO THE ERN GREAT BASIN.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - NRN AZ...NWRN NM...SRN AND SERN
UT...FAR SWRN CO...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS...WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW
RH...ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS
AS THE WRN CONUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT NEWD TOWARD THE
NRN ROCKIES...A STRONG MID LEVEL SWLY SPEED MAX WILL TRANSLATE EWD
WITHIN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...SPREADING ACROSS AZ/UT AND WRN CO
DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DRY MID LEVEL AIR ADVANCING INTO THE REGION
WILL AID IN DECREASING RH VALUES /INTO THE TEENS/ AS AFTERNOON
SURFACE HEATING TAKES PLACE AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING STRENGTHENS.
WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 20-30 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 30-40 MPH
BENEATH THE UPPER JET...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS APPEAR
LIKELY.
...SRN KS/NRN OK/TX PANHANDLE...
A SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO EXTEND ALONG AN AXIS FROM WRN
OK INTO S CENTRAL KS AND THEN NEWD INTO MO/IA DURING FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH THIS FEATURE...SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS UP TO 20 MPH
AND GUSTS AOA 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. MEANWHILE...THE ERN EDGE OF A
PLUME OF HOT TEMPERATURES/LOW RH VALUES WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION.
THESE FACTORS MAY RESULT IN NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS...THOUGH IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER FUEL CONDITIONS WOULD
SUPPORT AN OUTLOOK AREA AT THIS TIME.
..GARNER.. 08/06/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...